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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 15, 2023 14:56:42 GMT -6
Man sites been down all morning and I keep hearing chatter of a storm next Saturday... I have a big seafood sale that day hoping it's big enough storm to cancel early (I pay for product Wednesday) or small enough customers still show up... 🤷 Florida Seafood Sale > fb.me/e/3CivGBjtiFacebook.com/thefruitstand Btw I'm Currently in key west Florida it's only 68* today 🥶 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2023 15:11:41 GMT -6
yep, big rainer next weekend most likely. Still doesn't look like any cold air to work with for here.
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Post by freezyfree on Jan 15, 2023 16:32:24 GMT -6
Ugh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2023 17:23:00 GMT -6
That system on the 22nd is worth keeping an eye on. GEFS has EPS are showing anywhere from a 20%-50% for at least an inch of snow.  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2023 17:34:35 GMT -6
Models were brutal today, basically 0” of snow in St. Louis and 2-4’ from northern/western Missouri through Iowa northern Illinois. All three globals were ugly in the next 14 days . Literally 3-4 nice southern storms but rain here, hopefully there’s more cold ti work with once these come around
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2023 17:48:35 GMT -6
When you factor in the southeast trend, the models look great.
Gfs has also been showing a monster storm around the 25th.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2023 18:03:14 GMT -6
Maybe… there’s definitely monster storms around for sure but no cold Air, this weeks storm that once showed a south east trend for a day or two only to shift back to a low track directly over us. I do think the pattern has potential, I would like to see global models showing more than a dusting. Time is ticking on our winter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2023 18:17:27 GMT -6
Maybe… there’s definitely monster storms around for sure but no cold Air, this weeks storm that once showed a south east trend for a day or two only to shift back to a low track directly over us. I do think the pattern has potential, I would like to see global models showing more than a dusting. Time is ticking on our winter. The gfs had a huge cutter a couple hundred miles further northwest a few days ago. Southeast and flatter will win out. I would be eyeing next Sunday for light accumulations followed by a chance for a major winter storm a few days later. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2023 18:31:35 GMT -6
The Pacific gets better but there is no blocking, no organized PV anomaly and the SE ridge is left to flex and flex some more.
This is starting to look like a potential St. Joes to Madison wet snow train.
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Post by REB on Jan 15, 2023 20:22:12 GMT -6
I need the return of winter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2023 21:44:44 GMT -6
00z Icon brings a couple inches of snow to the metro by Saturday night/Sunday morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2023 22:20:05 GMT -6
00z gfs brings several inches by Sunday as well.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2023 22:41:57 GMT -6
It's not good when the needle we need to thread these storms with no antedecent or arctic airmass to work with is so small you need the world biggest microscope to see it.
But hey it's happened I suppose
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Post by amstilost on Jan 16, 2023 10:03:04 GMT -6
It's not good when the needle we need to thread these storms with no antedecent or arctic airmass to work with is so small you need the world biggest microscope to see it. But hey it's happened I suppose Wow, eleven hours since last post by you. You know how to silence a forum.  I must admit I do get so frustrated with the parade of rainstorms that are modeled then nothing when 'cooler' air gets here or it falls apart going south of us. It is now the 16th and I see the same thing. Definitely more winter like temp wise toward the end of the 06z run. 12z out to 111hr and 2 rainstorms. I think the 3rd storm gathering in the Rockies is what Chris referred to a few days ago being the storm he was interested in. Edit: At 138hr the low on the 3rd storm is modeled over the Mississippi north of STL. YUCK. Hopefully the pro's can elaborate on the finer details of teleconnections. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2023 10:19:04 GMT -6
I think it's likely that we get at least one accumulating snowfall in the next 10 days. The large-scale pattern is becoming very favorable for our region...I wouldn't sweat the finer details on the models at this point. That storm towards the middle of next week could be a major overrunning event.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2023 10:38:50 GMT -6
It's not good when the needle we need to thread these storms with no antedecent or arctic airmass to work with is so small you need the world biggest microscope to see it. But hey it's happened I suppose Wow, eleven hours since last post by you. You know how to silence a forum. I must admit I do get so frustrated with the parade of rainstorms that are modeled then nothing when 'cooler' air gets here or it falls apart going south of us. It is now the 16th and I see the same thing. Definitely more winter like temp wise toward the end of the 06z run. 12z out to 111hr and 2 rainstorms. I think the 3rd storm gathering in the Rockies is what Chris referred to a few days ago being the storm he was interested in. Edit: At 138hr the low on the 3rd storm is modeled over the Mississippi north of STL. YUCK. Hopefully the pro's can elaborate on the finer details of teleconnections. Not a pro by any means, but the models are starting to digest the teleconnections. It’ll take a few runs for them. Large scale pattern changes ALWAYS give the models fits. The sensible weather and solutions are the ones that best correlate to the teleconnections being forecast. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2023 10:43:59 GMT -6
12z ggem looks pretty good by next weekend.
12z gfs has 2 storms that are borderline snow.
Things look positive to me.
They were already as bad as possible, so on the upswing.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2023 10:47:03 GMT -6
the gfs outcome for the storm mid next week is vomit worthy, lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2023 11:25:32 GMT -6
Have to agree with Friv, personally. Really though, anybody's thoughts sound reasonable. The GFS looks like junk I'm more interested in 1/25 system because the placement of high pressures seems a little more conducive then, per the ECMWF. Also agree with brtn. It does look like we have a good chance of seeing some kind of accum event within the next 10 days. I'm going to assume that next weekend is going to be a pretty close call, but a primarily rain event with some potential for sleet to mix in as the center of low moves away. While the southeast trend is noteworthy this winter, I think we are going through a pattern change as things adjust with the teleconnections, so I'm going to hold that the trend we've been seeing has less relevance over the next two weeks. One thing I've learned is that things always take a little longer than depicted with a pending pattern change. Very much akin to the line of work I'm in. Software development more often misses the first deadline than not. The conversation evolves from "yeah we can do that by then", to "what is the business impact if we don't release by then" to "ok, we can do a limited release but the good stuff will come later", or "here's a new date". I continue to like the time period of late January into February. Very hard to sustain a long lasting cold wave in February, so I really don't see pure winter in February, but rather more of a roller coaster (In January we got stuck at the top and we are looking down). IOW, we won't stay cold, we won't stay warm, and we will have rains in February, but we will also alternate more readily to cold and snowy periods as well. If I was a betting man, I think 2 warning criteria snows in the period from late January into February before we begin a transition in earnest to Spring. Just purely my thoughts based on what I've seen in the past. With the kind of temperature changes I have in mind, that brings with it the potential for heavy precipitation events, including the potential for two 6+ snowstorms. Overall, I'm thinking early Spring but that just means tail end of Feb into March - plenty of winter before then, IMO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2023 12:18:06 GMT -6
I think it's likely those models showing rain next weekend into the following week are scrubbing out the cold too quickly...especially the GFS. This has been a consistent trend in the mid-range so far this season. The GEM looks pretty solid next weekend into mid-week with a couple accumulating snowfall events.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2023 12:36:14 GMT -6
There has to actually be cold air to scrub out first
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2023 12:51:10 GMT -6
Sunday-Thursday next week will be exciting.
Checkout that storm on the euro. Explosive development.
All 3 globals have some flavor of it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2023 12:51:57 GMT -6
Euro has a big winter storm next week
GFS has been consistently showing some thing around that time frame as well
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2023 12:54:00 GMT -6
There has to actually be cold air to scrub out first The cold most certainly comes in behind Sunday's storm only to be wiped out by Monday on the GFS. It's been doing this all winter. The GEFS mean is substantially colder overall, as is most every other model. This version of the GFS flat out sucks. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2023 13:25:24 GMT -6
Models have a major SSW event unfolding in 10 days...February is looking better all the time. We may see a moderation early month, before the ! POOPY ! hits the fan mid-month into early March.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 16, 2023 14:23:29 GMT -6
Euro has a big winter storm next week GFS has been consistently showing some thing around that time frame as well It's going to take a really big storm at this point for me to really get very excited again about this winter. Really thought by now we would be seeing signs of a weakening LA Nina, and maybe a bit more activity ramping up. If we don't get something resembling winter soon, it may as well go ahead and warm up. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2023 14:26:58 GMT -6
Pretty crazy setup today in IA with tornadogenesis and Tds in the upper 40s.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2023 15:36:16 GMT -6
Euro ensembles look good for next week  |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2023 17:10:33 GMT -6
Maybe Art Hill will be sledded upon next week or the week after!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2023 20:50:28 GMT -6
12z ggem looks pretty good by next weekend. 12z gfs has 2 storms that are borderline snow. Things look positive to me. They were already as bad as possible, so on the upswing. If I lived in Chicago I would be looking at at least 2 very good chances for warning level snow. That's not a comment to take negatively. It's just not the same for us. Now I must say what the 18z GFS is showing at day 9-10 has the potential to end up a once in a decade winter storm if the two branches start phasing earlier and further West. This system has a deep moisture source. Insane vorticity advetion into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. But the needed Northern pull and cold air supply is stuck with the Northern stream system. We need these to start phasing earlier it will slow the system down and allow it to come further North but not just the track but with the moisture and lift. While deeper cold has more time to feed into the CCB. If we get really fortunate it could end up a huge snow storm from SW MO through STL on a line to Cleveland and Detroit.  
The euro on the other hand already has a monster phase. It alsmost has a triple phaser. This brings the system to a crawl and the upper low that consolidates over the Southern Mississippi Valley connects with cold. These systems are wildly inconsistent in the models. Not to forget we get rain from like the frst two for sure with almost perfect tracks at times.  |
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