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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 14:37:20 GMT -6
Had a burst of sleet in Brighton a few mins ago. Was really hoping for some mood flakes today...maybe Sunday will bring some.
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Post by perryville on Jan 19, 2023 14:51:13 GMT -6
If you look at the Penn State storm history, back on February 25, 1979, iirc, the placement of that surface low was not that far south of the heavy snow. It became vertically stacked at all level of ams, and caused a 90 mile band of profound heavy snow with thunder and lightning and high winds. That storm is still the measuring stick in Southeast Missouri. I wasn’t alive but my family went to bed and it was thunderstorms with rain. No mention of snow. The forecast went from 1-2” to nearly 2’ after it was all said and done. Drifted the roads shut, including I-55 from Perryville to Sikeston. My sister still has trouble eating eggs because my Mom had to use the chicken eggs from each day. They ran out of food (meat) and my Dad could not make it home from his job as a pipefitter. If I remember correctly, it took over 2 weeks to clear all the roads because of artic temps and drifts. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 14:55:14 GMT -6
from NWS
The next wave digs through the Four Corners on Monday and makes the
turn out into Texas on Tuesday. This one is undoubtedly further
south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the
Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture.
Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant
uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning
negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast
to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time
frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region,
being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold
air and Gulf of Mexico moisture. A lot of details can change at this
range, though, and this is the first run that several of the
deterministic models have begun to show this scenario. The ensembles
show more variability, and we should expect fluctuations in track,
timing, amount of cold air, and amount of precipitation as the
system gets closer in time and models hone in on the conditions.
This is the last in our series of waves, and with such a deep trough
a significant system evolving from it somewhere would make sense.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2023 15:09:53 GMT -6
If you look at the Penn State storm history, back on February 25, 1979, iirc, the placement of that surface low was not that far south of the heavy snow. It became vertically stacked at all level of ams, and caused a 90 mile band of profound heavy snow with thunder and lightning and high winds. That storm is still the measuring stick in Southeast Missouri. I wasn’t alive but my family went to bed and it was thunderstorms with rain. No mention of snow. The forecast went from 1-2” to nearly 2’ after it was all said and done. Drifted the roads shut, including I-55 from Perryville to Sikeston. My sister still has trouble eating eggs because my Mom had to use the chicken eggs from each day. They ran out of food (meat) and my Dad could not make it home from his job as a pipefitter. If I remember correctly, it took over 2 weeks to clear all the roads because of artic temps and drifts. The most important thing...all the bars in town ran out of alcohol. ;-) I was in highschool and we just went to each other's houses and played penny poker. Shutting down the Cape Girardeau public schools for an entire week was a no-brainer. Normally it's fairly unusual for the cape schools to close due to snow, or it was back then. I remember a story where somebody was airlifted from Perryville to a hospital in Cape where they gave birth just minutes later. Unfortunately the storm struck on a Sunday, so college commuters who went home to St. Louis were stuck on the interstate for a couple nights. My brother's girlfriend in south county St. Louis said it was sunny and 40, and communications wasn't the same back then, so students left a nice day and drove into the monster. That was before cell phones, so as a parent I would have been beside myself, if I hadn't heard from my kids when they got back to town, then seeing that mess on the news. But we are getting ahead of ourselves. I'm not suggesting that anything like that would ever happen this time, but I can't ignore that the look of this storm is similar at the low and mid levels at my novice eyes, anyway, albeit a bit further north (hmmm). |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 16:27:43 GMT -6
Only sharing because this is the best Union snow hole I’ve ever seen lol  |
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Post by Farmtown WX on Jan 19, 2023 16:29:44 GMT -6
If you look at the Penn State storm history, back on February 25, 1979, iirc, the placement of that surface low was not that far south of the heavy snow. It became vertically stacked at all level of ams, and caused a 90 mile band of profound heavy snow with thunder and lightning and high winds. That storm is still the measuring stick in Southeast Missouri. I wasn’t alive but my family went to bed and it was thunderstorms with rain. No mention of snow. The forecast went from 1-2” to nearly 2’ after it was all said and done. Drifted the roads shut, including I-55 from Perryville to Sikeston. My sister still has trouble eating eggs because my Mom had to use the chicken eggs from each day. They ran out of food (meat) and my Dad could not make it home from his job as a pipefitter. If I remember correctly, it took over 2 weeks to clear all the roads because of artic temps and drifts. I was born in this storm! My mom always tells the story of almost having to have the National Guard come and take her in a truck to the hospital as the roads in Cape were impassable at the time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 16:33:12 GMT -6
Only sharing because this is the best Union snow hole I’ve ever seen lol Lock it in, lol |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 16:47:16 GMT -6
The GFS looks like a distorted hot mess every time it runs, its consistency and output is terrible, look at its last 6-8 runs on next weeks storm. Man I can’t believe that’s the best we have for a model, I think the engineers have tried to make the models “so smart” and detailed that they are at times less reliable than the old days .
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Post by perryville on Jan 19, 2023 16:50:32 GMT -6
Coldest air in 20+ years hanging out in Siberia. Can someone explain what needs to happen for that to make its way to our neck of the woods? As for ‘79, the stories that I’ve heard are almost unbelievable. People walking down I-55 to find shelter, National Guard did help a woman that was in labor in get to the hospital in Perry County and yep, the beer was all drank. Hopefully, we get a little taste of that next week  . |
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Post by perryville on Jan 19, 2023 16:51:37 GMT -6
The GFS looks like a distorted hot mess every time it runs, its consistency and output is terrible, look at its last 6-8 runs on next weeks storm. Man I can’t believe that’s the best we have for a model, I think the engineers have tried to make the models “so smart” and detailed that they are at times less reliable than the old days . I agree. Just looks out of whack. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2023 17:05:40 GMT -6
Just totally whaaaaack, mannnn!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 17:12:55 GMT -6
Who wants to take a trip to Mammoth Mountain?  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 17:15:20 GMT -6
The GFS looks like a distorted hot mess every time it runs, its consistency and output is terrible, look at its last 6-8 runs on next weeks storm. Man I can’t believe that’s the best we have for a model, I think the engineers have tried to make the models “so smart” and detailed that they are at times less reliable than the old days . It's truly awful. Embarrasing, actually... |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 19, 2023 17:22:32 GMT -6
Who wants to take a trip to Mammoth Mountain? Been watching videos from there. They're driving through canyons of snow 8 or 10 feet deep. Snow removal crews have been working 14-16 hour days since Christmas. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 18:38:44 GMT -6
pretty cool how they carved a Hardees out of a snow drift...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 20:02:50 GMT -6
The 18z Euro control run is perfection  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 20:06:11 GMT -6
Wow doesn’t get much better than that!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2023 20:07:21 GMT -6
I am going to be posting a new thread later tonight... and it will have some important information about upcoming changes to MTW.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 20:32:03 GMT -6
Ruh- Roh
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Post by blueblood on Jan 19, 2023 20:43:11 GMT -6
I don't get to post much......but that does sound ominous! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 19, 2023 20:43:21 GMT -6
I’m nervous
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 19, 2023 20:46:19 GMT -6
I am nervous too Dont post much but go here for my weather info.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 19, 2023 20:57:20 GMT -6
Who wants to take a trip to Mammoth Mountain? I seen that earlier. Lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 21:31:21 GMT -6
Might be our first model hiccup
00z ICON is going way south
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 21:37:58 GMT -6
Might be our first model hiccup 00z ICON is going way south Tough run right there. An ominous start. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 21:38:09 GMT -6
Or it’s shifting right towards the Ukmets southern solution.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 21:46:24 GMT -6
So much for consistency, lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 21:48:12 GMT -6
Sundays once small opportunity for some light snow is all but gone now, we loose next weeks chance and your back to two weeks out…
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 21:49:55 GMT -6
We still have the 18z NAVGEM looking good over tropical tidbits |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:13:12 GMT -6
0z GEM looks good and consistent on 24 hr Black and White charts. Sometimes it’s hard to tell but should be good when the Color models come out
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