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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 8:43:22 GMT -6
0z NAM continues to be our best friend with the upcoming storm , looks awesome
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 8:44:25 GMT -6
We will see if the RGEM continues to improve, it took a nice step north and stronger at 6z this morning
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 8:44:33 GMT -6
Yeah NAM is fantastic.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 8:56:34 GMT -6
The 12z NAM is ideal for almost the entire area.
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 22, 2023 9:00:32 GMT -6
When will we see snow total maps?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 9:18:55 GMT -6
Hard to get much better then that NAM run
Easily a warning level event for most of the area
The Cobb map is printing out some eye popping numbers along and south of 44
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Post by amstilost on Jan 22, 2023 9:19:20 GMT -6
On all 3 12z NAM vort maps, 500, 700, 850mb, strengthen quite a bit as it swings through our sweet spot. One thing I noticed is the 12z NAM didn't drop into MX as far as the 06z GFS. Granted it is only a very slight difference but I have heard on here that we really don't want the 500mb feature to dive too far into MX. I guess it could be argued that the 'center' of the 500mb feature on the 12z NAM just skirts the border of TX/MX and, that is only at Hrs 42-48 which IS in the NAM's reliabilty 'window'.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 9:23:15 GMT -6
When will we see snow total maps? Initial maps probably later today. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 9:33:37 GMT -6
Got about an inch on elevated surfaces this morning so St. Charles will need at least an inch Wednesday to pull back ahead of Chicago.
The race is on.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 9:37:35 GMT -6
Got about an inch on elevated surfaces this morning so St. Charles will need at least an inch Wednesday to pull back ahead of Chicago. The race is on. Haha. Really solid runs at 06z and 00z. NAM and RGEM look great at 12z. We are pretty much fully sampled now so we should have a very good idea on numbers tonight. I really like 4-8” area wide. Maybe 3-6 in far NW corner and SE corner as rain and low ratios may cut into totals. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 9:41:01 GMT -6
Hard to tell exactly on Tropical Tidbits, but the ICON looks stronger this run looking at the 500 low
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 22, 2023 9:51:01 GMT -6
Got about an inch on elevated surfaces this morning so St. Charles will need at least an inch Wednesday to pull back ahead of Chicago. The race is on. 1.5” of cotton candy fluff 50 miles to your west. By far (relatively speaking) our biggest snow of the season. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 9:54:43 GMT -6
GFS looks very similar to the NAM
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 9:56:39 GMT -6
996 low going thru Memphis is cool
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 9:57:21 GMT -6
It’s almost identical to it’s 6z run looking very close to NAM
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 9:57:59 GMT -6
GFS looks very similar to the NAM Its 850 and 700 mb centers are drifting north too. |
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Post by repomasterstl on Jan 22, 2023 10:00:31 GMT -6
What time frame are we looking at? Over night Tuesday/Wednesday?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 10:02:37 GMT -6
What time frame are we looking at? Over night Tuesday/Wednesday? Most of it is Tuesday night. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 10:02:38 GMT -6
What time frame are we looking at? Over night Tuesday/Wednesday? Aren't you in Texas ? Lol. Yes overnight Tuesday into wed morning. |
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sals20
Wishcaster
Imperial, MO.
Posts: 92 
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Post by sals20 on Jan 22, 2023 10:05:53 GMT -6
I don't post much but lurk all the time. Just wanted to thank Chris and all on this board for all of your insight! My go to place for weather.
Also, had to point out snowman has used gorgeous, fantastic, and pretty cool in the last 14 hours! Now that that get me excited about the potential of snow!!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 10:12:59 GMT -6
I would like to welcome all of our new members and former lurkers and future members. Great to have you all!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 10:13:29 GMT -6
Using GYB and the average displacements...that results in max band centered in a line from southern Phelps County... up to Jefferson County..over to about Effingham. The placement does have some wiggle room.. but the standards have worked really well so I am inclined to stay with them. No decisions to be made until I see the rest of the AM data.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 10:23:04 GMT -6
Can really see the relative minimum across some of the northern counties on the ggem/rgem.
Have to watch where the primary and secondary bands setup closely as someone in the metro is likely to be caught in between.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 10:33:07 GMT -6
Also worth noting both the 12z gfs and 12z ggem look very active/wintry through early February.
Tons of cold building in Canada still.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 10:37:02 GMT -6
GEFS keeps looking better and better Mean 10:1 snow is up to 4-6" in the metro 4"+ probabilities are surging again  |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 10:38:21 GMT -6
That follows Chris's GYB path perfectly atm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 10:40:58 GMT -6
An important run of the UK is rolling. Will it join the party?
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 22, 2023 10:41:26 GMT -6
I say it’s time for a Chris FB LIVE.. I miss Team Wilson days haha
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 10:43:49 GMT -6
An important run of the UK is rolling. Will it join the party? Looks quite a bit better glancing at the 500 vort charts |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 10:44:51 GMT -6
Huge improvement from Ukie
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