|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 10:45:20 GMT -6
Almost 100 mile difference.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 10:47:56 GMT -6
Ukie definitely not on board, similar to GEM , there’s definitely a pretty big difference in the US models and the Ukmet and Gem
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 10:49:28 GMT -6
Ukie definitely not on board, similar to GEM , there’s definitely a pretty big difference in the US models and the Ukmet and Gem It’s a huge improvement. By 00z it’ll be right in line |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 10:49:52 GMT -6
UKIE is still tying the heaviest snow to the 850 low Using my extremely imprecise, back of napkin math, the heaviest snow would be favored in this region  |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 10:51:47 GMT -6
UKIE is still tying the heaviest snow to the 850 low Using my extremely imprecise, back of napkin math, the heaviest snow would be favored in this region Correct. You see this all the time with the one outlier. It will slowly creep toward the others as system becomes fully sampled. GYB method never fails. If you use the 850 and 700 mb rules in place to map out heaviest snow, STL is in a great spot right. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 10:51:56 GMT -6
The UK has taken a noteable step northwest.. but is still opens and shears out the 500mb system super quick.
I'd say it is better than before... and it does have some agreement with the 850 low placement... but it is definitely not part of the party yet. And without it, forecasting must proceed with caution.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 10:54:00 GMT -6
The 6z Euro looked similar to GFS and NAM earlier on TT
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 11:00:24 GMT -6
The 6z Euro looked similar to GFS and NAM earlier on TT Yes... that is definitely helpful. I just hate to have the UK out in the corner by itself. It's like it is keeping a secret and wont share. What is it trying to tell us? It's just hard to discount uncle Ukie. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 11:04:48 GMT -6
The fact that the vast majority of this is an overnight event will definitely allow for accumulations to begin faster than a marginal temp situation would imply. Winds also wont be shredding the flakes so I would anticipate getting the ground covered pretty quickly once the steady snow kicks in.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 11:14:31 GMT -6
The fact that the vast majority of this is an overnight event will definitely allow for accumulations to begin faster than a marginal temp situation would imply. Winds also wont be shredding the flakes so I would anticipate getting the ground covered pretty quickly once the steady snow kicks in. Last night kind of proves that point I think. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 12:06:36 GMT -6
The fact that the vast majority of this is an overnight event will definitely allow for accumulations to begin faster than a marginal temp situation would imply. Winds also wont be shredding the flakes so I would anticipate getting the ground covered pretty quickly once the steady snow kicks in. Last night kind of proves that point I think. On the flip side, it has been snowing lightly all morning up here and I’ve lost an inch of snow. It will require 4+ inches to survive Wednesday. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 12:12:00 GMT -6
Euro looks solid. Similar to the GFS/NAM camp
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 12:15:56 GMT -6
Yes a little less for sure, but much better than the Ukmet or Gem
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 12:26:26 GMT -6
850 low is still a tick south of where the ideal spot is, but at this range that's splitting hairs
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 22, 2023 12:39:10 GMT -6
Ok after looking at the Models and this is going to be my first official model prediction for this event. I’m thinking 3-5 inches for the metro what do you guys think?
|
|
|
|
Post by weatherlover2013 on Jan 22, 2023 12:45:28 GMT -6
Hello fellow weather enthusiasts. Extremely long time lurker. Since this forum was on the the foxnews site. Well I want to let you all do a great job. Keep up the great work and look forward to what you come up with on this storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 13:00:51 GMT -6
Very impressive cold dome heading into February on the 12z euro
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 13:13:42 GMT -6
Just leaving mass. What did I miss?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 13:18:08 GMT -6
15z SREF mean  |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:21:31 GMT -6
Nice looking SREF mean
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:22:11 GMT -6
Steady as she goes
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:26:00 GMT -6
After looking at the current data, my first guess for the area would be conservative side 2-5” but could easily end up a little higher than that 3-7” if the beefier GFS were to verify. This is taking into account snow ratios/borderline temps/compaction etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 22, 2023 13:27:32 GMT -6
Nice trends this morning.
Longer term, looks like we aren’t done with the freezer yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 22, 2023 13:28:26 GMT -6
Just leaving mass. What did I miss? Bad model data, cutter, all rain, complete chaos.
Kidding, of course. All good. Decent model agreement. 3-6 as a good starting point.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:29:28 GMT -6
I agree with the others, with most of the snow accumulating over night things should stick nicely until Wednesday afternoon, then I’m sure we will lose a lot of accumulation once the temperatures warm up. Get up early on Wednesday morning, should be pretty outside with snow still falling.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2023 13:36:31 GMT -6
Just leaving mass. What did I miss? I made pancakes |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 13:38:17 GMT -6
After looking at the 12z runs I still feel pretty good about a 6-8" event for the Metro and points 50-60mi SE...that may be at the upper limit of the potential but this is a pretty healthy looking storm that should be capable of heavy snowfall rates of 1"/hr+. Need to dig into some soundings to see if there's any thunder potential.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:42:18 GMT -6
Brtn going all in on the GFS/NAM with a warning level event! I hope you are right
|
|
bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
|
Post by bob on Jan 22, 2023 13:46:22 GMT -6
Do you think NWS will issues watch today or wait until tomorrow?
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:47:03 GMT -6
I just can’t bring myself to getting sucked in to the higher totals just yet. The pre Christmas storm , the Ukmet smoked just about every model, and with the GEM not really onboard with the higher totals I’m taking the more conservative approach. I usually get burned when I mentally convince myself why the higher end solutions are right. Definitely has the potential to be warning level storm for our area. The fun thing is the cold is back on all 3 globals for the next two weeks with multiple chances of wintry precipitation. Could be a good run if everything works out.
|
|
