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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 13:48:36 GMT -6
No I doubt it probably tomorrow morning most likely but might only be for southern viewing area or STL south
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 13:50:07 GMT -6
Definitely not a bad call to temper expectations at this point...I'm hedging on the recent trend of a stronger system and assuming the UK/GEM are weak outliers.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2023 14:07:16 GMT -6
I think an advisory level event imby. Some places down south could eek out a warning level event, particularly in the hilly areas. Looks like highest impact will be centered somewhere north of 60 and south of 44. Thinking areas like farmington, st gen, potosi stand the greatest chance, but cant rule out areas as far south as poplar bluff. I think metro will be impacted, especially due to tod and morning rush. Too early for numbers.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2023 14:07:59 GMT -6
And just like that wsw issued according to aLexa
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 14:10:06 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 22, 2023 14:12:08 GMT -6
Just got an alert WSW for the Area. FYI. My avatar pic if anyone is interested is my Game character from Star Trek: Online.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 14:12:43 GMT -6
Boy i was wrong, usually our NWS is more conservative on a marginal event like this, I hope we end up with 4-6” that would be awesome
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2023 14:13:36 GMT -6
Certainly not going to call their wisdom into question. Even their recent afd verbiage over the past few days seemed to beat the drums.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 14:14:36 GMT -6
Im toying with 4-8 right up I-44 into metro STL...and points south.. with 3-5 north of there.
Strong preference here to follow GYB vs modeled qpf. As I look at the situation... it just has all the ingredients for a classic winter storm.
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Post by birddog on Jan 22, 2023 14:36:47 GMT -6
Hello to all! Haven't posted for awhile, but have been following along. I would like some snow up this way please! I would guess our total snow accumulation this year so far at a dismal half an inch.
I hoping for a little northward shift. I can hope right?
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 22, 2023 14:38:40 GMT -6
Im toying with 4-8 right up I-44 into metro STL...and points south.. with 3-5 north of there. Strong preference here to follow GYB vs modeled qpf. As I look at the situation... it just has all the ingredients for a classic winter storm. Chris could you scroll back and look at my first official prediction for numbers what did you think. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 14:40:47 GMT -6
18z NAM going big
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2023 14:41:13 GMT -6
Not just big... It's a KABOOM!!!  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2023 14:42:43 GMT -6
It's perfect from surface to 250mb
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2023 14:43:39 GMT -6
This looks like a classic 6-10" for the I-44/I-70 corridor with some locally higher amounts, granted compaction, low ratios (8:1, ending as 10:1) and marginal temps as well as speed will temper this some, but liking that 6-10" range right now. Some one could cash in on a foot, but speed is likely not going to allow that to be widespread.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 14:47:30 GMT -6
This looks like a classic 6-10" for the I-44/I-70 corridor with some locally higher amounts, granted compaction, low ratios (8:1, ending as 10:1) and marginal temps as well as speed will temper this some, but liking that 6-10" range right now. Some one could cash in on a foot, but speed is likely not going to allow that to be widespread. Not going to say that won't happen... but lets build to that. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2023 14:48:50 GMT -6
Where do they post this map? I can never find maps of theirs unless they post them. And sometimes they don't. Sometimes... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 14:52:42 GMT -6
Where do they post this map? I can never find maps of theirs unless they post them. And sometimes they don't. Sometimes... I get them from the LSX Iembot feed on Twitter
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 14:52:47 GMT -6
Ok after looking at the Models and this is going to be my first official model prediction for this event. I’m thinking 3-5 inches for the metro what do you guys think? It's a decent, conservative starting point. I think the WSWatch is well placed for areas likely to see 4+ inches. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2023 14:53:20 GMT -6
Also 18Z NAM shows a sneaky system dropping in on the heels of this one that could keep flurries and snow showers going with additional minor to light accumulations through Thursday AM.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 22, 2023 15:11:17 GMT -6
Been in Wisconsin for the past two weeks due to a family member illness/ funeral. Driving home as we speak, and open the board to see this. Would love to park it with a big fat happy snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 15:12:58 GMT -6
She's a beaut, Clark!  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2023 15:14:37 GMT -6
The nam has the h5 low track using wind vectors as the center tracking just NW of STL.
Altho the the isobars are closed centered further SE.
This same phenomenon can be seen on all of the corresponding charts(700,850,925 mb) to some degree.
Maybe I'm not interpreting them properly
Anyways I would expect the main band to be up 44/64 in Missouri and 64/70 in Illinois.
Historically systems that close off from H5 towards the surface slowly trend tiara towards a more NW concensus track wise.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 22, 2023 15:16:27 GMT -6
Since I was tired of being retired and sitting at home, I took a long term sub job until latter part of February. It woulld be nice to get that "Due to the inclement weather, all classes have been canceled today" call.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2023 15:16:37 GMT -6
Nice coupling BRTN
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 15:17:21 GMT -6
18z RGEM is awesome too. If you take 700 and 850 and transfer QPF alignment with that instead of verbatim, it absolutely crushes the metro.
QPF and snowfall map looks a bit wacky but strength and track look great.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 22, 2023 15:18:57 GMT -6
Im toying with 4-8 right up I-44 into metro STL...and points south.. with 3-5 north of there. Strong preference here to follow GYB vs modeled qpf. As I look at the situation... it just has all the ingredients for a classic winter storm. It does. When was our last classic Four Corners / Red River / I-44 storm? Maybe I just have selective memory, but it sure seems like it's been years... |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 15:21:28 GMT -6
Im toying with 4-8 right up I-44 into metro STL...and points south.. with 3-5 north of there. Strong preference here to follow GYB vs modeled qpf. As I look at the situation... it just has all the ingredients for a classic winter storm. It does. When was our last classic Four Corners / Red River / I-44 storm? Maybe I just have selective memory, but it sure seems like it's been years... Was thinking same thing. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2023 15:31:43 GMT -6
Ya I'm definitely thinking 1-3 north of that watch. Hoping for that to change. And it still could. Troy looks to be right at the cut off between 3-4ish. Maybe less.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 15:33:46 GMT -6
Ya I'm definitely thinking 1-3 north of that watch. Hoping for that to change. And it still could. Troy looks to be right at the cut off between 3-4ish. Maybe less. Possible...but selling it short, IMO |
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