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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 24, 2023 9:49:21 GMT -6
Are the models struggling with the transition from rain to snow and thus skewing the accumulation totals? Just looking with the untrained eye it just made me wonder.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 9:49:55 GMT -6
Interesting track of the surface low pressure as it tracks right along the Mississippi River then turns right @ around Cairo, IL and follows the Ohio River almost perfectly!
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 24, 2023 9:52:09 GMT -6
We had 4 inches in Nov in Festus! I’d be happy to see that again!
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 9:57:05 GMT -6
Are the models struggling with the transition from rain to snow and thus skewing the accumulation totals? Just looking with the untrained eye it just made me wonder. Possibly, printing out "rain" with with marginal surface temps. I'm not too concerned about that. I'm more concerned with the typical underestimation of the warm nose.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 9:58:45 GMT -6
12Z NAM Cobb output at KSTL is 1.4". All of it comes in only 2 hours.
StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 230124/1300Z 1 VRB02KT 30.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1400Z 2 VRB02KT 29.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1500Z 3 VRB02KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1600Z 4 16003KT 35.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1700Z 5 16004KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1800Z 6 16005KT 41.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230124/1900Z 7 14005KT 42.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2000Z 8 15006KT 43.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2100Z 9 15005KT 43.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2200Z 10 15004KT 42.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2300Z 11 10004KT 41.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230125/0000Z 12 11004KT 40.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230125/0100Z 13 10006KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230125/0200Z 14 12006KT 39.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230125/0300Z 15 13008KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 230125/0400Z 16 12005KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 84| 0| 16 230125/0500Z 17 09005KT 33.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.164 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 85| 0| 15 230125/0600Z 18 08007KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 68| 0| 32 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230125/0700Z 19 06009KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 66| 0| 34 230125/0800Z 20 04009KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 66| 0| 34 230125/0900Z 21 02008KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 77| 0| 23 230125/1000Z 22 36009KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 76| 0| 24 230125/1100Z 23 35009KT 32.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 4:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 86| 0| 14 230125/1200Z 24 35010KT 32.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 88| 0| 12 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230125/1300Z 25 35011KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 77| 0| 23 230125/1400Z 26 33010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 77| 0| 23 230125/1500Z 27 32010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 77| 0| 23 230125/1600Z 28 31010KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86 65| 0| 35 230125/1700Z 29 31011KT 36.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 25| 0| 75 230125/1800Z 30 30011KT 37.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 0| 0| 0
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 9:59:45 GMT -6
Well here's more or less my 'final' forecast map on this thing. It will either reign supreme or crash hard. Time will tell.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 10:00:02 GMT -6
Rap gets 6 or more to the entire metro
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 10:00:29 GMT -6
That's clearly some bunk output...no way it's gonna be rain and 33*
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:01:57 GMT -6
12Z NAM Cobb output at KSTL is 1.4". All of it comes in only 2 hours. StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 230124/1300Z 1 VRB02KT 30.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1400Z 2 VRB02KT 29.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1500Z 3 VRB02KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1600Z 4 16003KT 35.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1700Z 5 16004KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/1800Z 6 16005KT 41.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230124/1900Z 7 14005KT 42.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2000Z 8 15006KT 43.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2100Z 9 15005KT 43.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2200Z 10 15004KT 42.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230124/2300Z 11 10004KT 41.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230125/0000Z 12 11004KT 40.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230125/0100Z 13 10006KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230125/0200Z 14 12006KT 39.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 230125/0300Z 15 13008KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 230125/0400Z 16 12005KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 84| 0| 16 230125/0500Z 17 09005KT 33.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.164 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 85| 0| 15 230125/0600Z 18 08007KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 68| 0| 32 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230125/0700Z 19 06009KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 66| 0| 34 230125/0800Z 20 04009KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 66| 0| 34 230125/0900Z 21 02008KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 77| 0| 23 230125/1000Z 22 36009KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 76| 0| 24 230125/1100Z 23 35009KT 32.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 4:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 86| 0| 14 230125/1200Z 24 35010KT 32.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 88| 0| 12 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 230125/1300Z 25 35011KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 77| 0| 23 230125/1400Z 26 33010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 77| 0| 23 230125/1500Z 27 32010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 77| 0| 23 230125/1600Z 28 31010KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86 65| 0| 35 230125/1700Z 29 31011KT 36.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 25| 0| 75 230125/1800Z 30 30011KT 37.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 4:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 0| 0| 0
Actually it's 1.3 not 1.4" but that 16:1 snow ratio seems interesting. Weird how it only comes down in 90 mins. Looks more and more like an overachieving November surprise snow event then a larger storm per the NAM anyway.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 10:03:21 GMT -6
We won't have the 12Z GFS Cobb output for a couple hours, but I highly suspect it will be 0". The 6Z cycle had no snow accumulation whatsoever at the airport. The Cobb method is probably underestimating snow accumulation a bit. The snow depth change using the model's native microphysics is about 1.0" on the 6Z cycle and 0.5" on the 12Z cycle.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 10:04:26 GMT -6
RAP goes nuclear.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:05:08 GMT -6
Rap gets 6 or more to the entire metro Nice to see the RAP has no nasty surprises. I'm liking my map even more now, clearly the southeastern half of that heaviest band is gonna have mixing issues with rain, making the areas over a foot in snowfall overblown, but means the 10" cap should remain the benchmark of this system with most in the 6-8" range.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 10:06:33 GMT -6
Funny how a lot of times RAP usually puts out the least amount of snow and here it is clobbering 44
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 10:07:33 GMT -6
There's too much damn data out there
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 10:07:39 GMT -6
Marginal temps are giving models a migraine, which passes along to us. The whole atmosphere will be below freezing pretty much except the surface. That cold will be dragged down here with the precip. And these type of systems always end up north even within 12 hours of what models show.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:07:42 GMT -6
Personally I think the RAP has the best overall handling of the system and it's features. A bit overbaked sure, but placement-wise it looks spot on.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 10:11:37 GMT -6
We won't have the 12Z GFS Cobb output for a couple hours, but I highly suspect it will be 0". The 6Z cycle had no snow accumulation whatsoever at the airport. The Cobb method is probably underestimating snow accumulation a bit. The snow depth change using the model's native microphysics is about 1.0" on the 6Z cycle and 0.5" on the 12Z cycle. Look at soundings and ask yourself if that makes sense, lol. This is a classic heavy, wet snow setup synoptically. If it's -3* to -5* at 850mb and snowing heavily, there's no way that shallow warm wedge will be sustained.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 24, 2023 10:11:45 GMT -6
There's too much damn data out there That’s what I said yesterday…. You can always find a model that is right and wrong lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 10:12:42 GMT -6
The GEM is actually best its been for the metro
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:12:54 GMT -6
RAP shows good banding tomorrow evening/night along and east of the Mississippi River too that might yield up to an additional inch.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 24, 2023 10:20:34 GMT -6
I saw someone did a study recently on the effectiveness of the various LSR algorithms (10:1, Kuchera, Cobb, Climatology). They all sucked...there's no best method.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 10:20:51 GMT -6
There's too much damn data out there That’s what I said yesterday…. You can always find a model that is right and wrong lol Exactly. That's why it is never wise to cherry-pick any one particular model, but instead use a blend of models like what the NBM does and take the mean.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 10:21:02 GMT -6
There's too much damn data out there AMEN
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:22:33 GMT -6
I saw someone did a study recently on the effectiveness of the various LSR algorithms (10:1, Kuchera, Cobb, Climatology). They all sucked...there's no best method. Guess the best bet is to add them all up, and divide it by the number of algorithms in the sample and get the average of them. Probably more closer to reality.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 10:24:20 GMT -6
We are definitely in a data overloaded society..for everything, not just weather. Our attention spans are sh...oh look a squirrel
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 10:25:30 GMT -6
That’s what I said yesterday…. You can always find a model that is right and wrong lol Exactly. That's why it is never wise to cherry-pick any one particular model, but instead use a blend of models like what the NBM does and take the mean. NBM barely has advisory level snowfall in the Metro...yet the NWS went with a warning with long lead time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:36:42 GMT -6
As a middle aged Millennial going on 36, I can attest to the amount of data. I remember when there was only like 3 or 4 models that were at least accessible like the GFS, GEM, and NAM as well as the DGEX when that was a thing now we have the Euro, Icon, JAM (japanese model), WRF, FV3, HRRR, RAP, UKMET, the list goes on. It's crazy. But that DGEX and it's crazy insane clown snowfall maps have been missed.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 10:37:37 GMT -6
Oh and that doesn't even include the number of ensemble members, control, and experimentals out there. Absolutely crazy.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 10:43:18 GMT -6
Alright...
I'm just waking up, 06z models looked ok, but reading a few comments in here sounds alarming...what's going on guys? Models shift last min? Lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 10:47:31 GMT -6
Alright... I'm just waking up, 06z models looked ok, but reading a few comments in here sounds alarming...what's going on guys? Models shift last min? Lol Nothing's really changed...with the models and the ups and downs of this board, lol
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