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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 10:49:04 GMT -6
Exactly. That's why it is never wise to cherry-pick any one particular model, but instead use a blend of models like what the NBM does and take the mean. NBM barely has advisory level snowfall in the Metro...yet the NWS went with a warning with long lead time. Is that due to the bimodal distribution of the solutions?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 10:49:26 GMT -6
Exactly. That's why it is never wise to cherry-pick any one particular model, but instead use a blend of models like what the NBM does and take the mean. NBM barely has advisory level snowfall in the Metro...yet the NWS went with a warning with long lead time. It also could be underestimating snow accumulations. One thing it doesn't factor in (AFAIK anyway) is climatology. If we did a 50/50 blend of dynamic/climatological LSR the NBM would suggest about 6" at KSTL in line with official NWS forecasts.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 10:49:49 GMT -6
I can say one thing, significant jump north with the warnings in Oklahoma compared to yesterday evening
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 10:53:50 GMT -6
Alright... I'm just waking up, 06z models looked ok, but reading a few comments in here sounds alarming...what's going on guys? Models shift last min? Lol Nothing's really changed...with the models and the ups and downs of this board, lol I agree. Steady as she goes. Im looking for 3 to 6 imby. Would think that troy would see something along the lines of 3 to 5.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 10:57:58 GMT -6
Nothing's really changed...with the models and the ups and downs of this board, lol I agree. Steady as she goes. Im looking for 3 to 6 imby. Would think that troy would see something along the lines of 3 to 5. That sounds about right...what I'm pretty well expecting IMBY too. Might be in a bit better spot on the E side though.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 11:00:20 GMT -6
Alright... I'm just waking up, 06z models looked ok, but reading a few comments in here sounds alarming...what's going on guys? Models shift last min? Lol Nothing's really changed...with the models and the ups and downs of this board, lol Gotcha. Ya I looked at a few. Same classic issues we almost always see. No worries. At least I'm not. I've stopped stressing over these storms about 2 yrs ago. I now look at these storms like this. If we get a surprise great if not it's no different than all other Lucy pull the football situations. 🤣
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 11:02:36 GMT -6
12Z UKMET jumped south with its QPF field. It hits the southerners pretty hard. I wouldn't be surprised if areas around Farmington get upwards of 10" out this storm.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 11:02:46 GMT -6
Nothing's really changed...with the models and the ups and downs of this board, lol Gotcha. Ya I looked at a few. Same classic issues we almost always see. No worries. At least I'm not. I've stopped stressing over these storms about 2 yrs ago. I now look at these storms like this. If we get a surprise great if not it's no different than all other Lucy pull the football situations. 🤣 And by surprise, I mean what models are forecasting. Lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 11:04:25 GMT -6
12Z UKMET jumped south with its QPF field. It hits the southerners pretty hard. I wouldn't be surprised if areas around Farmington get upwards of 10" out this storm. I hope they do. I believe last yr they didn't see a whole lot. They've been lacking a snowy Winter more often then anyone the past few yrs if I'm not mistaken.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 11:10:07 GMT -6
12z HREF still holding course It has some widespread amounts of a foot across the southern counties
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 11:16:58 GMT -6
We've actually done ok for ourselves the last few years down this way. I would venture to say we've just about evened things out if you look at the last 15-20 years.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 11:29:11 GMT -6
HREF also has some prolific snowfall rates in the Deformation zone 0.75 to an inch per hour for most of the area
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 11:44:59 GMT -6
Looks like we could get some back end flakes/ice this weekend and then another one ejecting out of the four corners at this time next week.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 12:10:21 GMT -6
Looks like we could get some back end flakes/ice this weekend and then another one ejecting out of the four corners at this time next week. Looks like a February 1st storm is indeed in the models. In time for my birthday Looks like a low ejecting with an overrunning type situation. Could be interesting as we get closer.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 12:14:43 GMT -6
I agree. Steady as she goes. Im looking for 3 to 6 imby. Would think that troy would see something along the lines of 3 to 5. That sounds about right...what I'm pretty well expecting IMBY too. Might be in a bit better spot on the E side though. Yes. I recall the the media was reporting whiteout conditions in north county and adjacent areas of the city. I was working from home and looked out my window, and it was a garden variety 2 to 3 inch light snow. I honestly thought the media was playing up something, but it was really happening. That mustve been 10 or 15 years ago, though. This reminds me of that. I think you are in a good spot. We may be closer to the lower end of the range out by my house, but time will tell. Its not going to stick around for a while, so im hoping we still hv plenty of chances into feb.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 12:18:06 GMT -6
The GFS is still bullish with the warming over the pole during the next week to 10 days. We'll see how that impacts the pattern going forward...the strat vortex weakens dramatically so that should translate towards a -AO in February.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 12:24:22 GMT -6
How did the euro look
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 12:25:13 GMT -6
The GFS is still bullish with the warming over the pole during the next week to 10 days. We'll see how that impacts the pattern going forward...the strat vortex weakens dramatically so that should translate towards a -AO in February. Some signs in recent days that it switches to strengthening after the stretch event and we miss the SSW. Looks like the next 10-15 days are our best shot at winter. We shall see. If the SSW fails, we might eek out one more stretch in late February/early March.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 12:27:05 GMT -6
Looks like it is taking the day off. Clearly, some data flow issues delaying the run.
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Post by REB on Jan 24, 2023 12:29:51 GMT -6
I wish this storm would just get here and we could quit worrying about the details.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 12:33:18 GMT -6
I havent looked past tomorrow in a couple days.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 12:39:09 GMT -6
But... my calendar just reminded me that today is the anniversary of the 1967 tornado that tracked from Chesterfield to Maryland Heights.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 12:39:20 GMT -6
Looking at Oklahoma traffic cams, one thing stands out. OKC is having accumulation struggles due to 33-34 degrees and time of day of course. A good jog to the SW near Lawton where it is about one degree colder and it is pouring snow, the ground is notably more covered.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 12:43:19 GMT -6
It's hard to tell what the ECMWF is saying with the limited charts on the ECMWF website. It looks like maybe a slight tick up in QPF in the metro area, but again, it is very hard to tell with the wide zoom out and big increments in the color table. Take that with a grain of salt. Link
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 12:50:36 GMT -6
15z sref still looks good metro wide, but has shifted the heaviest band back southeast some.
It is smoothing things out too much due to its ensemble structure.
Thus, I still really like Chris’s map with the 4-8 inch band shifted south a county or so.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 24, 2023 12:51:32 GMT -6
17Z HRRR simulated composite radar continues to come in super juiced... has my county (Madison, IL) under 32 to 42 dBz radar returns for almost the entirety of the storm with over 0.50in liquid equivalent precip by 4 or 5am, and several hours of moderate precip left to go. Anticipation builds.
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Post by freezyfree on Jan 24, 2023 12:54:48 GMT -6
My son called from Altus AFB in Ok and said it’s coming down pretty hard.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 13:01:25 GMT -6
18z rap keeps 4 to 8 over st.charles county and a bit wetter overall for the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 13:08:54 GMT -6
RAP has me believing someone is going to get very close to that 12" mark about 30 miles S/SE of STL.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 13:10:44 GMT -6
Mean up to 6.6 on 15z SREF for BLV and 5.6 for Lambert. So, those have flipped. Near perfect distribution as well.
10" for Farmington
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