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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 13:14:07 GMT -6
Still kind of leary of the heavy snow hugging the surface low... but models have been pounding that into my head.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 13:16:52 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 13:17:37 GMT -6
18z hrrr is a slight trend nw, I think the only counties that may not reach criteria is warren, and gasconade and may need them put at an advisory level.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 24, 2023 13:18:02 GMT -6
RAP has me believing someone is going to get very close to that 12" mark about 30 miles S/SE of STL. That’s pretty much where Marissa is… That is not gonna happen lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 13:19:56 GMT -6
Will be interesting to see reports out of Western Arkansas. If they get double digits this evening then southern counties better buckle up.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 13:21:39 GMT -6
I’m just west of Springfield Mo it’s 36 with a rain and snow mix, big sloppy wet flakes mixed in.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 13:23:55 GMT -6
Rap and hrrr and pretty identical from 18 z. Right around 6 for stl
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 13:24:22 GMT -6
18Z HRRR sets up the axis of heaviest snow about 60 nm (70 miles) left of the 850 mb track. It's dynamic LSR is similar to the Kuchera LSR. Both show about 3" for the airport and 10" in the Farmington area.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 13:28:00 GMT -6
What’s the hrrr showing for St. Louis
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 13:29:28 GMT -6
looks like union to st.peters, to carlinville will be the 6 inch line in my consensus with the models, 3 to 6 north of that, and 6 to 9 south of that line
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 13:32:12 GMT -6
18Z HRRR sets up the axis of heaviest snow about 60 nm (70 miles) left of the 850 mb track. It's dynamic LSR is similar to the Kuchera LSR. Both show about 3" for the airport and 10" in the Farmington area. Re: Kuchera "Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT). 2) If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT). 3) If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT). The hourly snowfall is RAT multiplied by the hourly liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall is the sum of all the hourly snow values up the given forecast hour." If you take this and put it to the test with same scenario at 3 PM vs 3 AM you are going to get different results. It's a flawed system if it doesn't account for the massive ball of fire moving throughout the sky. Unless I am missing something (entirely possible).
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 13:35:30 GMT -6
HRRR and RAP both have pretty sharp cutoffs in QPF north of 44 in MO and 70 up IL I guess we will see if that actually happens Simulated radar is a thing of beauty
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 13:35:57 GMT -6
My fellow southerners, get ready! This could be a special one.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 13:36:24 GMT -6
Also, shorter range models are struggling to get us past 35 tomorrow with full cloud cover all day. There isn't going to be too much melting going on. It's January 24th.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 13:39:00 GMT -6
Like jmg said earlier, every snowfall ratio algorithm is flawed. There really is no “silver bullet” correct answer. Kuchera isn’t bad, but it’s incredibly flawed imo since it’s only input is max temp in the column.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 13:39:48 GMT -6
No new data to cause me to make any updates. For sure, the north end of the 4-8..right along I-70...may struggle. But even a tiny shift north will cover that. So my forecast will ride as is.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 13:43:38 GMT -6
Also, shorter range models are struggling to get us past 35 tomorrow with full cloud cover all day. There isn't going to be too much melting going on. It's January 24th. I’ll disagree with you there. I think those who get 2-4 inches will have little left by Wednesday evening. Now, the area that gets around 8 inches might still have material snow through Thursday before Friday wipes it out. Melting at 34 degrees is quite efficient.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 24, 2023 13:44:43 GMT -6
No new data to cause me to make any updates. For sure, the north end of the 4-8..right along I-70...may struggle. But even a tiny shift north will cover that. So my forecast will ride as is. that kinda sounds like a big chunk of the heart of the immediate metro may struggle? does that mean to get to the 4 inches low mark?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 13:46:48 GMT -6
This thing is LOADED with moisture...regional composite radar is very impressive to the SW.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 13:47:12 GMT -6
Snow cover is very efficient at refrigerating itself when you get more than a couple inches down. If we keep the sun away tomorrow the snow might compact, but melting will be tough.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 13:50:05 GMT -6
I used to play the LSR poker game...but I have mostly given up. More often than not.. I start with 1:10 and adjust manually based on the setup. Lsr is only as good as the qpf forecast... which is rarely if ever perfect.. and frequently off by .1 or more..so Ive come to the conclusion its usually not worth the effort.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 13:55:20 GMT -6
No new data to cause me to make any updates. For sure, the north end of the 4-8..right along I-70...may struggle. But even a tiny shift north will cover that. So my forecast will ride as is. that kinda sounds like a big chunk of the heart of the immediate metro may struggle? does that mean to get to the 4 inches low mark? Areas north of I-70 may struggle... yes. But that is not a huge suprise. To get 7, 8+ you will need to get hit by both the front and back ends of the system.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 13:57:20 GMT -6
18z RAP and HRRR both track the 700mb low right over or a few miles south of STL. Everything still looks on track for a nice snowfall in the Metro.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 13:58:36 GMT -6
Snow cover is very efficient at refrigerating itself when you get more than a couple inches down. If we keep the sun away tomorrow the snow might compact, but melting will be tough. to a certain extent you are both right. If we have dense clouds and limited wind, it will be slower to melt... although it will compact. If the sun comes out it will melt pretty fast... unless its in the shade.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 13:59:57 GMT -6
Nam looks great for the metro, I feel pretty confident in the 6 inch line in the locations I mentioned earlier
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 14:03:05 GMT -6
18z nam has most of the metro approaching 40 tomorrow.
You better have feet of snow to fend that off.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 14:07:17 GMT -6
So it's too much work to do by phone, where do we stand with real time data vs models? Is the system north? South? Right on target?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 14:11:06 GMT -6
Still kind of leary of the heavy snow hugging the surface low... but models have been pounding that into my head. yeah... that screams cold rain to me.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:11:41 GMT -6
It looks like the latest data supports the location of the Winter Storm Warning to me. That is the Farmington'ish area is in the bullseye.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 14:11:56 GMT -6
We all know it’s going to melt get up early and play on the snow go sledding have fun . The good thing is most of our snow is before sunrise of 7am. 32-33 at night is much different than 33-34 during daylight and afternoon hours. With the snow rates strong things will pile up quick
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