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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 14:14:35 GMT -6
Driving from Joplin through Lebanon Mo , temps would go up and down 34 to 38 temps were 4-5 degrees colder during the heaviest precipitation. I hit several areas of all snow and 35-35 degrees
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 14:14:52 GMT -6
18z nam has most of the metro approaching 40 tomorrow. You better have feet of snow to fend that off. Let's get it on the ground first- then we can worry about how quick it melts
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 14:15:31 GMT -6
I think this cement snow will surprise you with how long it lasts if you get 4"+ on the ground even if it does get into the mid-30s tomorrow. It tends to compact and become very dense.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:16:53 GMT -6
Still kind of leary of the heavy snow hugging the surface low... but models have been pounding that into my head. yeah... that screams cold rain to me. Where specifically would that be?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 14:17:48 GMT -6
18z nam has most of the metro approaching 40 tomorrow. You better have feet of snow to fend that off. Let's get it on the ground first- then we can worry about how quick it melts I would rather have 4 inches of snow on the ground for 5 days than 8 inches of snow for one day, but anything is better than nothing at this point.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 14:19:00 GMT -6
Let's get it on the ground first- then we can worry about how quick it melts I would rather have 4 inches of snow on the ground for 5 days than 8 inches of snow for one day, but anything is better than nothing at this point. Arkansas, far southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 14:19:30 GMT -6
Latest NDFD aka official NWS forecast
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:19:56 GMT -6
NAM / Hi-Res NAM are solid. Not wavering.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 14:21:43 GMT -6
That's a great forecast from the NWS.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 24, 2023 14:21:47 GMT -6
I think this cement snow will surprise you with how long it lasts if you get 4"+ on the ground even if it does get into the mid-30s tomorrow. It tends to compact and become very dense. Not to mention 18Z hires NAM keeps us with wraparound snow showers and squalls all the way up through Thursday morning with that little clipper/piece of energy coming in behind and phasing with our storm.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:21:59 GMT -6
Best practices or methodology for measuring accumulated snow so that compaction is not reflected?
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 14:22:04 GMT -6
18z RAP and HRRR both track the 700mb low right over or a few miles south of STL. Everything still looks on track for a nice snowfall in the Metro. 700 drops over 80m in 12 hours as it passes over us on the NAM- there's going to be some lift
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 14:23:40 GMT -6
The severe side of the system is pretty wicked
PDS tornado warning in the Houston metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 14:27:31 GMT -6
Tornado emergency in the Houston metro now
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 14:29:31 GMT -6
The reason for keeping things status quo continues to be the track of the 850 low, 700mb and 500 vort. Absent any big shifts in those tracks... even though QPF output has shifted south...I can't see caving away from the average GYB blend that has worked so well in the past. The north of I-70 comment is as much a concern about how long it may take precipitation rates to increase to the point that they overcome the shallow warm layer...since the heavier precip early on will most definitely extend from the Ozarks into southeast Missouri.
And I should clarify... I'm mainly speaking of I-70 on the Missouri side of the river.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 24, 2023 14:29:47 GMT -6
The severe side of the system is pretty wicked PDS tornado warning in the Houston metro Goodness, you can see a debris ball on the correlation coefficient. Large confirmed tornado on the ground down there.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:30:02 GMT -6
We're starting to radar echoes in the area. But the dry air is eating the precipitation right now. The latest sounding from the airport showed a 25 C dewpoint depression at 800mb. That is expected so it is nothing to be alarmed by.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 14:31:31 GMT -6
How many miles displaced is a traditional gyb method Chris?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:33:29 GMT -6
Best practices or methodology for measuring accumulated snow so that compaction is not reflected? COCORAHS guidelines allow observers to wipe the snowboard clean, but no more than 4x per day and only after 6 hours has elapsed after the previous wipe. In other words you can't wipe it 3am and then again at 6am. You also don't have to wipe 4x per day. That is optional, but you'll get a lower snowfall amount if aren't wiping since your measurement will be subject to a lot more compacting and melting.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 14:39:51 GMT -6
I have two snow boards...one for hourly measurements that gets cleaned off and one for storm total.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 14:41:18 GMT -6
Ok... I am just not getting a look at the 18z updates...I was out walking the dog and trying to follow along on my phone and hold her. The 18z updates from the NAM and both the HRRR and RAP give me further peace of mind. The major tracks all look good.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 14:41:47 GMT -6
Going to be interesting what the radar and snowfall looks like around midnight on the nose of that dry slot...classic region for TSSN development with steepening lapse rates.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:42:40 GMT -6
Best practices or methodology for measuring accumulated snow so that compaction is not reflected? COCORAHS guidelines allow observers to wipe the snowboard clean, but no more than 4x per day and only after 6 hours has elapsed after the previous wipe. In other words you can't wipe it 3am and then again at 6am. You also don't have to wipe 4x per day. That is optional, but you'll get a lower snowfall amount if aren't wiping since your measurement will be subject to a lot more compacting and melting. Ok thx. But to clarify, you CANT wipe it at 3 and 6? I just want to be sure thats not a typo. However i wont be wiping at 3. Maybe 6 though.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:43:29 GMT -6
Going to be interesting what the radar and snowfall looks like around midnight on the nose of that dry slot...classic region for TSSN development with steepening lapse rates.
Would be cool to be woken by lightning and thunder.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:44:20 GMT -6
COCORAHS guidelines allow observers to wipe the snowboard clean, but no more than 4x per day and only after 6 hours has elapsed after the previous wipe. In other words you can't wipe it 3am and then again at 6am. You also don't have to wipe 4x per day. That is optional, but you'll get a lower snowfall amount if aren't wiping since your measurement will be subject to a lot more compacting and melting. Ok thx. But to clarify, you CANT wipe it at 3 and 6? I just want to be sure thats not a typo. However i wont be wiping at 3. Maybe 6 though. It's my understanding that you can wipe it at anytime. But if you do you are blocked from wiping it for another 6 hours. So if you wipe at 3am then you can't do it again until 9am. You're storm total is the sum of the individual measurements your take, but you can only take 4 measurements per day max. Always take your last measurement immediately after the snowfall ends.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 14:44:47 GMT -6
Currently reporting 43 degrees and some light birds in O'Fallon, MO....
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:45:03 GMT -6
COCORAHS guidelines allow observers to wipe the snowboard clean, but no more than 4x per day and only after 6 hours has elapsed after the previous wipe. In other words you can't wipe it 3am and then again at 6am. You also don't have to wipe 4x per day. That is optional, but you'll get a lower snowfall amount if aren't wiping since your measurement will be subject to a lot more compacting and melting. Ok thx. But to clarify, you CANT wipe it at 3 and 6? I just want to be sure thats not a typo. However i wont be wiping at 3. Maybe 6 though. Ok i reread your post. It makes sense. Dont know why i read it wrong to begin with.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:49:04 GMT -6
So if i get woke up at 3 bc of the thunder that brtn speaks of, i might just go ahead and wipe...the snowboard that is. Then wipe again at 9. After that seems like accums will start to be counteracted with the compaction.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 24, 2023 14:49:53 GMT -6
So what’s everyone going to be doing on their snow day tomorrow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:50:51 GMT -6
No snow day for me. Wfh
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