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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 14:53:10 GMT -6
The most important question is what is everybody drinking tonight watching wv imagery and radars and watching rap (or rapping) and looking at mext weekend (which btw is starting to concern me as models are trending colder and i hv plans that i cannot change)
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 14:53:21 GMT -6
How many miles displaced is a traditional gyb method Chris? Here is the frequency distribution straight from the publication. The horizontal axis with the arrow points in the direction of movement of the 850mb low. Imagine rotating it left about 45 degrees to orient it better. Each tick mark on the vertical axis is about 60 nm in our area. You can see that 90 nm is the peak of the frequency distribution. But the 80th percentile actually spans 0-180 nm to the left of the track.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 14:54:42 GMT -6
Thank you bdgwx
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 14:56:48 GMT -6
How many miles displaced is a traditional gyb method Chris? The simplified version (and easiest to eyeball) Features at 850mb... - The axis of heavy snow most frequently is found around 90nm to the left of the track of the 850mb center
The axis of heavy snow typically falls within the -3c to -5c 850mb temp contours
At 500mb... - The axis of heavy snow is typically centered around 150nm to the left of the center of the track of 500mb vort max
At 700mb... - S+ band between -6C and -8 C (-7 C best) temperature, and south of -10 C dew point line.
- S+ band along path and just left of low
- Snow begins at 700 mb ridge line and ends at trough line
- S+ band with greatest moisture at H7
- North of the 700 mb closed contour
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 14:57:48 GMT -6
Teleworking is prevalent at my job so snow days are a thing of the past
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 14:58:43 GMT -6
Driving around in the cold and snow for 18 hours.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 14:59:26 GMT -6
Ok Thank you as well Chris, I understand now why you dont want to change the map much for the snowfall as we are squarely in the potential zone still on the st.charles sides based on those traditional methods of GYB.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 15:03:14 GMT -6
19Z NBM: There's not much change in the location, but there is a bump up in the totals down south and a slight reduction in the totals in the metro area. My gut tells me that the NBM is underestimating amounts region wide, but especially in and around Farmington.
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 24, 2023 15:04:23 GMT -6
Driving around in the cold and snow for 18 hours. Most of here would do that for free lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 15:05:47 GMT -6
The Little Rock radar is a thing of beauty
A wall of moisture streaming due north
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 24, 2023 15:06:16 GMT -6
Teleworking is prevalent at my job so snow days are a thing of the past Likewise, but thankfully on Jan 1st, we get banked 48 hours of flexible "floating" holiday time at my job (PTO) before we've even earned any PTO for the year. My 5yo son's school has chosen to take an emergency day and totally cancel school, so no remote learning for him, and I chose to take Wednesday off and use 8 hours of that floating holiday time. Will probably stay up late tonight and wake up early tomorrow, get the sleds out and spend a few hours out in it. We have some amazing hills around at his school which is just a few blocks down the road - one of the hills is so steep and tall that many people have suffered terrible injuries on it and there is a sign saying sledding on that hill is banned/forbidden, but there are quite a few other hills we can hit.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 15:08:37 GMT -6
Driving around in the cold and snow for 18 hours. Most of here would do that for free lol. You imply that I don't like driving around in the cold and snow lol. I love it! I'm just more of a fan of doing it during the day... and not at midnight. YAWN!
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Post by dragons7stegen on Jan 24, 2023 15:10:48 GMT -6
My fellow southerners, get ready! This could be a special one. I hope you are right!
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 15:16:50 GMT -6
Saturation filling in nice and quick around Springfield....
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 15:31:50 GMT -6
Another tornado reported around Beaumont with debris
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 24, 2023 15:32:18 GMT -6
If im reading this right looks like the heaviest snow will be just south of the metro.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 24, 2023 15:32:58 GMT -6
Lots of verga right now
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 15:43:24 GMT -6
1.5 S- Lebanon MO
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 24, 2023 15:49:08 GMT -6
Just talked to a friend in Joplin, he said last night they were forecasting 4"-6" in his area and local mets are now backing off on totals. He said it's been a rainy 35* day there so far.NWS holding to the WSW 4"-6" with changeover after 5pm there.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 15:55:18 GMT -6
I have a very bad feeling on this one....I would be happy with 2-3
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 24, 2023 15:56:02 GMT -6
I have a very bad feeling on this one.... What is it?
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 24, 2023 15:56:47 GMT -6
Chris I had a visitor on my back Deck in Ferguson today.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 15:58:41 GMT -6
I have a very bad feeling on this one.... What is it? The cutoff
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 16:02:30 GMT -6
Short term models look great for St.Charles TK, I would be more worried in warrenton, and troy. I still feel the 6 inch line is union, to st.peters, to carlinville, Ofallon should have 5 inches.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 16:10:51 GMT -6
Short term models look great for St.Charles TK, I would be more worried in warrenton, and troy. I still feel the 6 inch line is uniol, to st.peters, to carlinville, Ofallon should have 5 inches. I'm just nervous.....lol....I am waiting for Friv to calm me down.....Brtn has helped a lot......
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 24, 2023 16:20:42 GMT -6
And now some local STL mets dropping expected totals.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 24, 2023 16:21:03 GMT -6
Meh
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2023 16:22:45 GMT -6
And now some local STL mets dropping expected totals. Based on…?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 16:26:00 GMT -6
Not sure why they are dropping as everything in short term models look spot on.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 16:30:59 GMT -6
Not sure why they are dropping as everything in short term models look spot on. This is what I am also hearing all around....
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