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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 24, 2023 16:44:00 GMT -6
Maybe some of the rain is going to cut in on the totals?
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 24, 2023 16:45:10 GMT -6
And now some local STL mets dropping expected totals. Which ones? I just watched the other 2 channels and they are the same as they were this morning
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 16:47:18 GMT -6
Even Dave lowered his numbers. Still going with a solid 4" in STL.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2023 16:48:04 GMT -6
DM is going with 4. So perhaps there?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2023 16:48:24 GMT -6
Even Dave lowered his numbers. Still going with a solid 4" in STL. Beat me to it
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 16:49:09 GMT -6
Maybe some of the rain is going to cut in on the totals? We were reassured at least 4 or 5X here that dynamic cooling would not allow that very long - Has that changed?
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 16:51:00 GMT -6
Even Dave lowered his numbers. Still going with a solid 4" in STL. Beat me to it Yup - That is where someone told me also- Dave Murray
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 24, 2023 16:52:27 GMT -6
Maybe some of the rain is going to cut in on the totals? We were reassured at least 4 or 5X here that dynamic cooling would not allow that very long - Has that changed? Someone said some of local STL mets dropping expected totals. I was asking if the rain was a factor.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 16:53:57 GMT -6
Just not a good look when your backing off your numbers....
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2023 16:54:41 GMT -6
Snow cover is very efficient at refrigerating itself when you get more than a couple inches down. If we keep the sun away tomorrow the snow might compact, but melting will be tough. I agree melting will be tougher/slower if we have thick stratus and cyclonic driven snow showers around after the deformation part leaves.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 16:54:52 GMT -6
We were reassured at least 4 or 5X here that dynamic cooling would not allow that very long - Has that changed? Someone said some of local STL mets dropping expected totals. I was asking if the rain was a factor. Could well be
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 17:00:56 GMT -6
Francis Howell is already closed tomorrow
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 17:03:08 GMT -6
I dont think numbers are dropping as much as the ranges of uncertainty are being cut. Daves 4 in number is still within his original range
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 24, 2023 17:03:50 GMT -6
Francis Howell is already closed tomorrow There’s already a ton of closings. We’ll help traffic/accidents substantially tomorrow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 17:08:21 GMT -6
Just not a good look when your backing off your numbers.... Forecasting 4 to 6 and then refining it to 4 is not backing down. If it were changed to 3... that's backing down. But saying you expect it to be closer to 4 is not. For the record. I'm holding where I'm at and going to bed. Midnight comes fast.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 24, 2023 17:08:28 GMT -6
Still all rain at my house between Dixon and Rolla
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 24, 2023 17:12:43 GMT -6
Snowing hamsters out by Pomme De Terre Lake.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 24, 2023 17:15:46 GMT -6
Very interesting. Just checked MoDOT cameras and on I44 at Lebanon the ground is white. Just a little farther west in marshfield just wet ground.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 24, 2023 17:17:32 GMT -6
I now have big wet snow flakes. Just started
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2023 17:20:18 GMT -6
Going to be interesting what the radar and snowfall looks like around midnight on the nose of that dry slot...classic region for TSSN development with steepening lapse rates.
As you know...CSI! Conditional symmetric instability. It's most likely found in the right entrance region of the jet streak were upper level divergence occurs. It's interesting how this is found near the dry slot and steep lapse rates. It's going to be interesting to see how the Mesoscale bands set up across the area!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 17:21:02 GMT -6
Latest HRRR run looks very good for the whole area.
I'm still skeptical the heaviest totals for this storm are going to be as close to the surface low as models are portraying
Seems like a case of models dogpiling totals to close to the change over line
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 24, 2023 17:26:17 GMT -6
Scott Rolens going to the Hall of Fame! Yippeee! Cooperstowns getting another Cardinal!
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 17:29:19 GMT -6
Just not a good look when your backing off your numbers.... Forecasting 4 to 6 and then refining it to 4 is not backing down. If it were changed to 3... that's backing down. But saying you expect it to be closer to 4 is not. For the record. I'm holding where I'm at and going to bed. Midnight comes fast. My apologies Chris - I assumed he was under his initial forecast. Unfortunately a lot of people saw it as a downgrade forecast. I hope the Stormrunner heads into the heart of the storm tomorrow morning for you...Be safe
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2023 17:31:15 GMT -6
Latest HRRR run looks very good for the whole area. I'm still skeptical the heaviest totals for this storm are going to be as close to the surface low as models are portraying Seems like a case of models dogpiling totals to close to the change over line Yeah I agree! It doesn't seem right to have the heaviest snow be near the surface low. The heavier totals should be displaced further NW of the surface and upper level lows. Models don't do a good of job with the placement of the rain snow line usually.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 24, 2023 17:32:17 GMT -6
I think we see what happens. It hasn't even started yet. Ive personally focused on the lower end of the totals and if we get 4 that would verify anything less imo opinion is a miss or bust based on the hype. 3 inches isnt winter storm warning level. Now the NWS makes that call but it's broadcasted to the public and rolls downhill locally to the media who forecast. Let's see what happens.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 24, 2023 17:38:22 GMT -6
All of the St. Charles County schools have called off.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 17:45:39 GMT -6
Forecasting 4 to 6 and then refining it to 4 is not backing down. If it were changed to 3... that's backing down. But saying you expect it to be closer to 4 is not. For the record. I'm holding where I'm at and going to bed. Midnight comes fast. My apologies Chris - I assumed he was under his initial forecast. Unfortunately a lot of people saw it as a downgrade forecast. I hope the Stormrunner heads into the heart of the storm tomorrow morning for you...Be safe You have nothing for which to apologize! I 100% agree that many people see it as a downgrade because many people only see one number... the biggest one! And they don't listen to the forecast. So help educate folks! It's no different than taking a 4-6 forecast and later refining the focus on 5... or even 6.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 17:54:57 GMT -6
Drizzle west end of Belleville.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 18:12:05 GMT -6
Good luck, everyone! Hopefully, it edges just north enough to get everyone at least 4 inches (my bar for a meaningful storm).
I’m excited to see what the main band throws down!
Then we can slam whichever model suite was wrong tomorrow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 18:21:56 GMT -6
Just woke from a much needed nap...let's do this!
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