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Post by dmbstl on Jan 24, 2023 18:22:09 GMT -6
Just not a good look when your backing off your numbers.... That always happens. I can’t remember the last storm that got revised upward on the doorstep of arrival.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 24, 2023 18:25:46 GMT -6
Just woke from a much needed nap...let's do this! Ironically I’m just going for a nap…….. could be a long 24 hours
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 18:35:40 GMT -6
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 18:53:28 GMT -6
It's nowcast time gentlemen - Radar looking really healthy....
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 18:53:52 GMT -6
There is a very significant increase in snowfall amounts being shown on the 18Z vs 12Z ECMWF in the Farmington/Fredricktown area.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 18:56:44 GMT -6
Man it's crazy how wrapped up this is. Yet the strong lift tomorrow morning is being depicted as sitting on surface low circulation.
The low track is still alomg the Mississippi then Ohio rivers.
You would think 44/70 would be the bulls eye.
The HRRR has dramatically reduced qpf. Now having almost no deformation zone West of the river and only scraping Belleville.
Ugh...
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 18:57:34 GMT -6
Yay for the places no one lives. I want it here. Lol
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 24, 2023 18:59:56 GMT -6
23 RAP and HRRR along with the 18Z EURO all showing very similar outcomes in regards to QPF and snow amounts. Max band “appears” to be coming up between Bluff and Farmington over to Perryville. Still a bit skeptical about late changeover / mixing along with the dry slot punching further north.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 19:01:50 GMT -6
I would definitely be worried about the dry slot down there as well, best snow I could find on Mo dot cams is Lebanon and west plains
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 19:03:03 GMT -6
Man it's crazy how wrapped up this is. Yet the strong lift tomorrow morning is being depicted as sitting on surface low circulation. The low track is still alomg the Mississippi then Ohio rivers. You would think 44/70 would be the bulls eye. The HRRR has dramatically reduced qpf. Now having almost no deformation zone West of the river and only scraping Belleville. Ugh... Welcome Friv - How was work?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 19:07:54 GMT -6
Donut hole collapsing over STL on radar...will definitely start as rain with wetbulbs running in the U30s until dynamical cooling takes over...that's the biggest unknown is how long that process will take. Almost always some hangup with winter storms around here...this one is no different!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 19:13:55 GMT -6
its been raining here for over a half hour.
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 24, 2023 19:19:51 GMT -6
Snowing pretty decent here in Ironton. My deck is now white.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 19:20:52 GMT -6
The 18Z euro looks great. The 18Z nam, euro, hires nam, rap all bring a batch of very heavy WAA snow right up I-44. It's focused on the SE side of 44 in mo and 70 in Illinois. But doesn't leave anyone really screwed. QPF for 9-12am. Obviously the nam is better for us. But the Euros last 2 runs have dramatically improved for us as well. EURO: NAM:.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 24, 2023 19:21:27 GMT -6
Been back to rain here again for a while. Definitely having a hard time to switch over. Just west of Rolla
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 19:31:01 GMT -6
Well. I got work tomorrow. Goodnight yall. Im thinking its going to take a lot to turn to snow in the metro with lighter precip rates, but hope it is more than I think we will get in the morning. Im just not sure and trust the pros on this.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 19:31:57 GMT -6
taking just a little longer than I expected for the dynamic cooling to take place with liquid precip in place for some time now...perhaps when the lift becomes greater, we can get some dendrites to overcome the warm layer, I'm guessing well after midnight. Guessing elevation favored areas such as Ironton are able to see the snow much earlier. We may have to wait until the upper level lows pass through before seeing the change over. But I haven't seen anything to back that up. I'm sort of under the impression that this is just overperforming in the precipitation at this point. I didn't think anything would start until about 9 pm
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 24, 2023 19:38:01 GMT -6
HRRR modeling 24h ago versus radar now. Looks like we're coming in just slightly east of modeling but north-south is on point. North side of that precip shield looks a LOT weaker than modeled.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 24, 2023 19:38:44 GMT -6
My son says he has flakes mixing in at S&T in Rolla.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 19:40:38 GMT -6
00z HRRR sure looks stingy with QPF N of 44/70...I can't figure out why models are so bullish with the QPF/snowfall just left of the SLP track. Radar out of SGF looks pretty solid to me with a NNE movement of echoes.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 24, 2023 19:40:56 GMT -6
Light mix with snow mixed in 3mi E KFAM
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 19:45:36 GMT -6
Hi-res NAMs keep the snow going across the N/NE counties into Thurs AM...interesting
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Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on Jan 24, 2023 19:49:56 GMT -6
Light Snow starting to mix with light rain in Fredericktown. We’ve dropped 5 degrees in the last 2 hrs. Now down to 35…
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 19:50:18 GMT -6
Rain with big splotches starting to mix in on the windshield in Perryville. Temp went from 39 to 36 in just a few mins. Need a few more and we are in business.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 19:51:55 GMT -6
Definitely a lot weaker snow down to the south west , I fully expected Springfield to have way more snow by now, none of the visibility is reduced . The only camera in Missouri with roads covered is west plains everywhere else is just wet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 19:54:09 GMT -6
I agree, upstream obs are a little concerning. We have a little time though that they didn’t.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 19:54:53 GMT -6
Took the Kestrel out to get some readings. Temp: 41.5* DP: 29.0* WB: 36.3*
I'm sure we will start as rain, but cant imagine it holds on once the better lift arrives
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 24, 2023 19:57:23 GMT -6
Not upset about still being in rain. After all, we weren't supposed to be in snow until midnight anyway. Patience my friends!!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 19:57:30 GMT -6
IDK, southwest of here is getting smacked pretty good. Seeing some 4", 5", and 6" reports across NW Arkansas and NE Oklahoma
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 19:59:33 GMT -6
Yes they were predicting 5-10” in Springfield with isolated amounts to 12” there is no way they get that. With a dusting now, and the back edge coming through Oklahoma, not good for that forecast
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