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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 24, 2023 20:03:22 GMT -6
Big ol nothing over here in Mascoutah.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 24, 2023 20:04:53 GMT -6
This has been textbook so far..
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 20:07:28 GMT -6
The 00Z nam has shifted way SE with the main WAA prenup this evening. Infact it's simulated radar blows a tire over us this evening. It's still decent with the backend but much drier than it was on every run until now. Crazy how much drier and weaker things are with the LLJ being much further SE. LOOK AT THIS CRAZY CRAP. 12Z nam versus 00Z. I've never seen a model blow chunks line this when the event is unfolding. The DIFFERENCE IS UNBELIEVABLE. I HAD TO CHECK A DIFFERENT WEBSITE TO BE SURE IT WASN'T A GRAPHICAL ERROR. LIKE ARE YOU BLEEPING KIDDING ME img hostimg host
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 20:08:05 GMT -6
Looks to me like the substantial convection down south will cause a slight wobble of the surface low to the east vs. modeling a day ago.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 24, 2023 20:11:57 GMT -6
Figures.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 20:12:37 GMT -6
-RN has started in Brighton and 38*
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 20:14:06 GMT -6
Looks to me like the substantial convection down south will cause a slight wobble of the surface low to the east vs. modeling a day ago. That’s something I’ve been watching on the models over the last several days. There is kind of a “handoff” between the convective induced low and the main surface low that forms from the negative tilt trough. Like Chris said, convection doesn’t really steal moisture it just messes up the mass fields.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 20:17:35 GMT -6
Looks to me like the substantial convection down south will cause a slight wobble of the surface low to the east vs. modeling a day ago. That’s something I’ve been watching on the models over the last several days. There is kind of a “handoff” between the convective induced low and the main surface low that forms from the negative tilt trough. Like Chris said, convection doesn’t really steal moisture it just messes up the mass fields. I think they are messed up enough that the ggem/rgem are going to look pretty smart for those STL/north. 00z FV3 is atrocious.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 20:20:26 GMT -6
"You people can't forecast anything" what a waste" "what a joke" "I'm never trusting another weather forecast ever"
Can't wait for that tomorrow
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 20:22:28 GMT -6
00z HRRR sure looks stingy with QPF N of 44/70...I can't figure out why models are so bullish with the QPF/snowfall just left of the SLP track. Radar out of SGF looks pretty solid to me with a NNE movement of echoes. I seen some mentioned this already. But could it be convection in the south is stealing our moisture? We've seen it before. But it's been awhile since this has happened.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 20:23:14 GMT -6
Lots of school closings tomorrow....
🙄
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 20:24:53 GMT -6
The entire system on the 00Z nam is much weaker, less organized, and a lot further SE with everything.
Funny because the H7 low tracks like 50 miles SE of STL which argues for the main band along 44/70.
I guarantee you the nws mets are like what the hell is happening here.
Hopefully what the models have now still happens.
They still have 5-8" along and SE of 44.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 20:26:13 GMT -6
I had a feeling....Sorry
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 20:26:53 GMT -6
Lots of school closings tomorrow.... 🙄 Kiss of death
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 20:27:24 GMT -6
The entire system on the 00Z nam is much weaker, less organized, and a lot further SE with everything. Funny because the H7 low tracks like 50 miles SE of STL which argues for the main band along 44/70. I guarantee you the nws mets are like what the hell is happening here. Hopefully what the models have now still happens. They still have 5-8" along and SE of 44. There have been a bunch of models showing this being a 44 SE event. I suspect many professional Mets didn’t give huge weight to the nam because it was an outlier to the north.
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Post by TK on Jan 24, 2023 20:30:37 GMT -6
What a disaster
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Post by amstilost on Jan 24, 2023 20:31:23 GMT -6
I think the radar looks absolutely amazing. I haven't seen this wrapped up of a storm 'near' our wheelhouse for a long time. The darker radar echos in AR. where the heavy thunderstorms/showers turn to snow looks quite impressive to me. The storm is moving northeasterly and not due east. I am figuring when the alarm goes off around 2am (IF I'm asleep) I will have to go out and brush snow off of the boat cover. Bring it.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 20:34:00 GMT -6
NOWCAST
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 20:34:10 GMT -6
The bleeding didn't stop with the 00Z HRRR.
The 01Z is even drier and weaker.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 20:36:37 GMT -6
Let's not jump ship at this point...radar looks solid upstream and we've got diurnal cooling on our side. I'd say it's still likely we get a grass covering snowfall from this and road problems for the AM rush. The 6"+ totals may be in jeopardy though unless we get a quicker changeover.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 24, 2023 20:36:40 GMT -6
Light to moderate snow with a dusting of snow. Roads and pavement wet but grass has a light dusting.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 20:40:33 GMT -6
The entire system on the 00Z nam is much weaker, less organized, and a lot further SE with everything. Funny because the H7 low tracks like 50 miles SE of STL which argues for the main band along 44/70. I guarantee you the nws mets are like what the hell is happening here. Hopefully what the models have now still happens. They still have 5-8" along and SE of 44. There have been a bunch of models showing this being a 44 SE event. I suspect many professional Mets didn’t give huge weight to the nam because it was an outlier to the north. The nws forecast looks pretty solid. None of the models had the collapse of the initial WAA over NW Arkansas that was too come NE. Not even the gems.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 20:44:27 GMT -6
What time does Chris go snow-chasing? Who gets to wake him up and tell him not to bother? LOL
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 24, 2023 20:46:25 GMT -6
"Gotcha!" Again....
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2023 20:46:27 GMT -6
Somewhat confused here.
Models didn’t have rain entering the STL area till 9p; snow till midnight. Why the gloom & doom?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 20:47:25 GMT -6
I'm not sure how much it matters now, but the 1Z NBM is little changed.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 20:47:32 GMT -6
Any obs out of Springfield area?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 20:50:14 GMT -6
Any obs out of Springfield area? I've seen a couple twitter videos of what looked like pretty heavy snow and hamster flakes.
West Plains just reported 3"
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 20:51:21 GMT -6
So, one more time (copied from Chris's post) The simplified version (and easiest to eyeball)
Features at 850mb...
The axis of heavy snow most frequently is found around 90nm to the left of the track of the 850mb center The axis of heavy snow typically falls within the -3c to -5c 850mb temp contours
At 500mb... The axis of heavy snow is typically centered around 150nm to the left of the center of the track of 500mb vort max
At 700mb... S+ band between -6C and -8 C (-7 C best) temperature, and south of -10 C dew point line. S+ band along path and just left of low Snow begins at 700 mb ridge line and ends at trough line S+ band with greatest moisture at H7 North of the 700 mb closed contour
confused. I saw many posts in the past that stated under and just to the left of the 500 - but here I see 150 nm to the left of the 500. Does the 500 typically go south of the 850? and the 700 stays north of the 850?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 20:51:28 GMT -6
Somewhat confused here. Models didn’t have rain entering the STL area till 9p; snow till midnight. Why the gloom & doom? The doom and gloom is more for those that were riding the edge of the best snow (I.e. St. Charles). The short range models and 00z nam have trended towards less QPF, meaning maybe 2-3 inches instead of higher totals. This area has always been high risk, so not terribly surprising. Also, if people focused on the 4 in 4-8, it wouldn’t sound very dramatic.
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