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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 20:51:53 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 20:52:56 GMT -6
Any obs out of Springfield area? SN and 1mi vis...quite a few 3/4mi and a 1/2mi report S of SGF
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 20:53:13 GMT -6
Any obs out of Springfield area? 3" in West Plains. That's pretty close to AR border in south central MO.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 20:55:12 GMT -6
It's 9:00, first bourbon is almost gone, dog's chasing his ball, Blues aren't as terrible as they were in the first 22 minutes of the game. Still a "go" in the sticks, at least for now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 20:55:33 GMT -6
I'm not sure how much it matters now, but the 1Z NBM is little changed. I'm going to be pretty impressed if the NBM gets this one right
It is the NWS "golden child" so it better be good I guess lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 20:56:40 GMT -6
So, one more time (copied from Chris's post) The simplified version (and easiest to eyeball) Features at 850mb... The axis of heavy snow most frequently is found around 90nm to the left of the track of the 850mb center The axis of heavy snow typically falls within the -3c to -5c 850mb temp contours At 500mb... The axis of heavy snow is typically centered around 150nm to the left of the center of the track of 500mb vort max At 700mb... S+ band between -6C and -8 C (-7 C best) temperature, and south of -10 C dew point line. S+ band along path and just left of low Snow begins at 700 mb ridge line and ends at trough line S+ band with greatest moisture at H7 North of the 700 mb closed contour confused. I saw many posts in the past that stated under and just to the left of the 500 - but here I see 150 nm to the left of the 500. Does the 500 typically go south of the 850? and the 700 stays north of the 850? Heavy snow typically occurs along the 500mb low and 2* of latitude(~150nm) left of the vort max track which occurs right of the low center track.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 24, 2023 20:59:18 GMT -6
Hard not to get excited with a Memphis low…
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 21:00:36 GMT -6
Daughter reports heavy sner in Cape Girardeau.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 21:00:43 GMT -6
Let it unfold. Radar looks great.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 21:01:34 GMT -6
Somewhat confused here. Models didn’t have rain entering the STL area till 9p; snow till midnight. Why the gloom & doom? The doom and gloom is more for those that were riding the edge of the best snow (I.e. St. Charles). The short range models and 00z nam have trended towards less QPF, meaning maybe 2-3 inches instead of higher totals. This area has always been high risk, so not terribly surprising. Also, if people focused on the 4 in 4-8, it wouldn’t sound very dramatic. The doom and gloom is primarily from me. I'm getting nervous that my 3 to 6 will verify imby. I'm in STC county about 4 miles north of the MO river. It's pretty moot anyway. I've always figured it was a south of 44 storm anyway. Quite frankly I never expected much from this one. My apologies.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 21:02:04 GMT -6
Precipitation starting in Arnold
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 21:03:12 GMT -6
KC radar looking good
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 21:08:11 GMT -6
confirmed heavy wet snow falling in downtown cape girardeau. Temp at 38 down there.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 24, 2023 21:09:26 GMT -6
North central Arkansas
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 21:09:49 GMT -6
KC radar looking good No sharp cutoff there...
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 21:15:56 GMT -6
So, one more time (copied from Chris's post) The simplified version (and easiest to eyeball) Features at 850mb... The axis of heavy snow most frequently is found around 90nm to the left of the track of the 850mb center The axis of heavy snow typically falls within the -3c to -5c 850mb temp contours At 500mb... The axis of heavy snow is typically centered around 150nm to the left of the center of the track of 500mb vort max At 700mb... S+ band between -6C and -8 C (-7 C best) temperature, and south of -10 C dew point line. S+ band along path and just left of low Snow begins at 700 mb ridge line and ends at trough line S+ band with greatest moisture at H7 North of the 700 mb closed contour confused. I saw many posts in the past that stated under and just to the left of the 500 - but here I see 150 nm to the left of the 500. Does the 500 typically go south of the 850? and the 700 stays north of the 850? It is very important to point out that Goree and Younkin didn't say that the axis of heaviest snow typically occurs 150 nm left of the center of the 500mb vorticity track. In fact, figure 1 says in no uncertain terms that is more likely than not that it will NOT be centered at 150 nm left of the track. That is worth repeating in bold. 150 nm is NOT the typical location of the heavy snow. There is no typical location. It's just that 150 nm is the spot where the frequency is maximized. Unfortunately the relationship is so vaguely documented in the publication it is hard to quantify the uncertainty. But based on the eyeball method the 2 sigma envelope appears to be 0 to 400 nm left of the track. It's a similar situation with the 850 mb track. The 2 sigma envelop there is about -20 to 200 left of the track. However, unlike the 500 mb rule there is a typical (albeit barely) spot of the heavy snow at 90 nm left of the track. It is also important to note that all of this is based on only 2 years of data that is now 55-60 years old.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2023 21:17:40 GMT -6
Transition complete in Perryville. Pouring snow right now. Starting to form a coating.
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Post by scmhack on Jan 24, 2023 21:20:04 GMT -6
I'm just wondering how soon the fun will start. My friend in KC said the roads were wet but he also doesn't care to look further outside.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2023 21:22:15 GMT -6
Transition complete in Perryville. Pouring snow right now. Starting to form a coating. How long did it take to transition?
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 24, 2023 21:29:24 GMT -6
Worst timing possible for a storm, stay up late...or get up early???
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 21:29:54 GMT -6
So, one more time (copied from Chris's post) The simplified version (and easiest to eyeball) Features at 850mb... The axis of heavy snow most frequently is found around 90nm to the left of the track of the 850mb center The axis of heavy snow typically falls within the -3c to -5c 850mb temp contours At 500mb... The axis of heavy snow is typically centered around 150nm to the left of the center of the track of 500mb vort max At 700mb... S+ band between -6C and -8 C (-7 C best) temperature, and south of -10 C dew point line. S+ band along path and just left of low Snow begins at 700 mb ridge line and ends at trough line S+ band with greatest moisture at H7 North of the 700 mb closed contour confused. I saw many posts in the past that stated under and just to the left of the 500 - but here I see 150 nm to the left of the 500. Does the 500 typically go south of the 850? and the 700 stays north of the 850? It is very important to point out that Goree and Younkin didn't say that the axis of heaviest snow typically occurs 150 nm left of the center of the 500mb vorticity track. In fact, figure 1 says in no uncertain terms that is more likely than not that it will NOT be centered at 150 nm left of the track. That is worth repeating in bold. 150 nm is NOT the typical location of the heavy snow. There is no typical location. It's just that 150 nm is the spot where the frequency is maximized. Unfortunately the relationship is so vaguely documented in the publication it is hard to quantify the uncertainty. But based on the eyeball method the 2 sigma envelope appears to be 0 to 400 nm left of the track. It's a similar situation with the 850 mb track. The 2 sigma envelop there is about -20 to 200 left of the track. However, unlike the 500 mb rule there is a typical (albeit barely) spot of the heavy snow at 90 nm left of the track. It is also important to note that all of this is based on only 2 years of data that is now 55-60 years old. This is good information. Thank you and thank you to BRTN as well. I've shot through a bottle of wine, so I'm going to have to study this and process this information tomorrow in a post-mortem way. For now, I stick to my day job...designing databases. The outcome is much more predictable.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 21:30:43 GMT -6
The radar has popped significantly in southeast MO in the last hour. We have a 3" report in Popular Bluff and a 4" report south of there near the border with AR. Surely the SPC is going to issue a mesoscale discussion for SE MO shortly right?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 21:32:11 GMT -6
It's 9:00, first bourbon is almost gone, dog's chasing his ball, Blues aren't as terrible as they were in the first 22 minutes of the game. Still a "go" in the sticks, at least for now. This isn't a playoff team. Hopefully they can get some decent draft picks for Tank and O'Reilly. And Binnington is garbage.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 24, 2023 21:32:21 GMT -6
Drizzle finally started. 39* imby
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 21:33:04 GMT -6
The radar has popped significantly in southeast MO in the last hour. We have a 3" report in Popular Bluff and a 4" report south of there near the border with AR. Surely the SPC is going to issue a mesoscale discussion for SE MO shortly right? Unfortunately that's going to move towards Mount vernon not us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 21:33:11 GMT -6
The latest HRRR run is looking pretty questionable.
It doesn’t have precep even entering the metro until 11pm and isn’t seeing that stuff by KC at all.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 21:33:24 GMT -6
The radar has popped significantly in southeast MO in the last hour. We have a 3" report in Popular Bluff and a 4" report south of there near the border with AR. Surely the SPC is going to issue a mesoscale discussion for SE MO shortly right? Those echoes are moving nearly due N too...starting to doubt the sharp cutoff N/W of 44/70 that the latest short-range models suggest
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 21:34:18 GMT -6
The radar has popped significantly in southeast MO in the last hour. We have a 3" report in Popular Bluff and a 4" report south of there near the border with AR. Surely the SPC is going to issue a mesoscale discussion for SE MO shortly right? Poplar Bluff is right along the US 60 corridor, where they are expanding I-57. It looked to me all week, they'd get thumped. Glad to see them cashing in.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 21:34:39 GMT -6
Been raining in Marissa for an hour or more.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 24, 2023 21:36:15 GMT -6
It's raining now.
Temp went from 40.3F to 37.9F the last 20 mins
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