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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 8:55:01 GMT -6
Use the app IMGUR. Then use the the desktop version of the website to insert photo. That's what I'm trying to do. I get the "Copy Link" on the "Embed" toggle. There used to be a list on the right side of the page with several choices and now I don't see that. On my Imgur app, I have to click on the picture after upload to get the right prompt for links. You want the .gif/.jpeg/.png at the end of the address. Paste that link into the picture prompt bar. Or use the "get links" button and copy and paste the BB Code link directly into the post with the html IMG tags. That's less hassle.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2023 8:56:35 GMT -6
Crud
Edit: Thanks Brtn
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 8:57:41 GMT -6
Disappointment... and ownership... The perfect set-up except that temperatures did not cool fast enough in the first phase last night to overcome the urban heat island and that was that. The deformation zone actually did pretty well considering it had to finish the job of cooling the lowest 500 feet or so. Even another 1 to 1.5 degrees colder...a couple hours earlier and we would be much happier. And...the heaviest deformation snow was DEFINITELY further north than modeled...right where GYB's average would place it...pretty much right over STL. Had the colder temperatures been realized we would be telling a different story. But they didn't... the forecast came up short along I-70/Missouri River into metro STL proper. I hate the bust word... but it is what it is. While we busted along I-70... it was absolutely not a bust down south where 4-8 inches were widespread. And honestly, the vast majority of their snow was not in the deformation zone... it fell with the banded precip in the WAA wing. So there is consolation in that I guess. And it could have been worse. Imagine if there was NO snow at all this morning in metro STL??? At least we had enough in the city and metro west to cover the ground and make roads sloppy. That helps a little. But it is what it is. We try and learn from it and move forward.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 8:57:55 GMT -6
Melted down all the snow I caught in the Stratus cylinder and got 0.42” of QPF That's a far cry from 1"...models sure didn't handle this one well despite having the track pegged for days. Another good example why model output can't be trusted. The NBM definitely ruled the roost.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 25, 2023 8:58:12 GMT -6
BRTN, when will the attention turn to the poss ice storm? Fri or Sat?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 9:02:50 GMT -6
I'm working on a map of the sfc, 850, and 500 features overlaid with snow totals. I'm waiting for the official snowfall graphic though. The preliminary axis of heaviest snowfall was about 40 nm left of the 850 mb track.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 9:03:53 GMT -6
My attention will turn once I get some sleep lol.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2023 9:09:21 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 9:09:43 GMT -6
The focal point of heaviest snow was Reynolds and Iron counties. Farmington had multiple 8"+ reports and Ellsinore (just NW of Popular Bluff) had multiple 8"+ reports. The highest report I've seen so far is 9.4".
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 9:14:06 GMT -6
I'm working on a map of the sfc, 850, and 500 features overlaid with snow totals. I'm waiting for the official snowfall graphic though. The preliminary axis of heaviest snowfall was about 40 nm left of the 850 mb track. Yeah... the first wave was closer to the 850 low than the more typical distance. But the deformation snow in the second phase more closely followed the traditional distance for the 500 vort/700 mb/ etc. There is no question that elevation was a huge factor in all of this... so was the urban heat island and the slower dynamic cooling than expected.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2023 9:16:02 GMT -6
Maybe? Winner, winner chicken dinner.
imgur.com
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 25, 2023 9:17:15 GMT -6
Well looking out side. I barely got 2 inches prob not even 2 inches since there are still grassy gaps in my yard.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 9:17:59 GMT -6
One thing is for sure...if you're a public forecaster in St. Louis, you better have thick skin when it comes to forecasting snow. This has got to be one of the toughest areas to forecast in the country.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 9:19:04 GMT -6
Alright, I’m officially a NBM truther It’s looking like it’s going to do very well with this system. I thought for sure it was to stingy on snow amounts around the area. It certainly wasn't perfect, but it did okay. It significantly underestimated the magnitude of the extreme southern snowfall though. For example, the 9.4" report was forecasted to only get 4". Carter Country in general hit the jackpot with this storm.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2023 9:19:29 GMT -6
I measured 7.5” on average here in Perryville. Power still out.
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Post by dragons7stegen on Jan 25, 2023 9:19:54 GMT -6
Snow day , great day for making a snowman!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 9:20:33 GMT -6
I’m not sure all the goes into the NBM when it come to ice forecasting, but it’s certainly bullish on potential the next 10 days
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Post by TK on Jan 25, 2023 9:21:59 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2023 9:23:36 GMT -6
A couple more. The snow falling out of the trees is nuts. Edit: I was using the 'Image Link' button on here instead of the 'Link' button. Imgur.com imgur.com
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 9:24:43 GMT -6
I’m not sure all the goes into the NBM when it come to ice forecasting, but it’s certainly bullish on potential the next 10 days Yikes
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 9:28:38 GMT -6
Alright, I’m officially a NBM truther It’s looking like it’s going to do very well with this system. I thought for sure it was to stingy on snow amounts around the area. It certainly wasn't perfect, but it did okay. It significantly underestimated the southern extent of the snowfall though. For example, the 9.4" report was forecasted to only get 4". Carter Country in general hit the jackpot with this storm. Like other tools... it works today but fails tomorrow. None of them is reliable enough to blinding follow. I've seen the NBM fail epically in the not too distant past. If the temperatures cool fast enough, the "standard" GYB would have worked well. But the dynamic cooling was not strong enough to overcome the warm layer except over the higher terrain of the Ozarks. Roughly 500 feet of elevation made the difference with this storm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 9:32:30 GMT -6
Ok MTW members... as you may have noticed... in order for me to use your pictures on the air I now have to get you to sign a release to grant permission. However, I do have the ability to have those who are interested sign a blanket release that will allow me to use any of your pictures that you take and post here on MTW. I'm going to create a separate thread for you to "sign-up" for a blanket release. Once I get the list of those willing to do so, I will respond with a link to the digital for for you to sign. So be on the lookout!
THanks Chris
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 25, 2023 9:39:33 GMT -6
One thing is for sure...if you're a public forecaster in St. Louis, you better have thick skin when it comes to forecasting snow. This has got to be one of the toughest areas to forecast in the country.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 25, 2023 9:47:13 GMT -6
Ok MTW members... as you may have noticed... in order for me to use your pictures on the air I now have to get you to sign a release to grant permission. However, I do have the ability to have those who are interested sign a blanket release that will allow me to use any of your pictures that you take and post here on MTW. I'm going to create a separate thread for you to "sign-up" for a blanket release. Once I get the list of those willing to do so, I will respond with a link to the digital for for you to sign. So be on the lookout! THanks Chris When do our checks come In? 😂 Just kidding
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 25, 2023 9:51:20 GMT -6
Having Grown-up in Boston,lived in Mt.Hood area of Oregon, Bend Oregon,and Salt Lake City...the Stl region is by far the toughest area to forecast Snow.. It's hard to get a real good area wide storm here..been a few since I moved here in 2012 but far between. Wanted to say I've been a lurker..(observer) since I found the board back when I relocated here. Decided to come out of the woodwork and Contribute. It's a great place to watch,read,laugh and be frustrated all in 24 hours time, but I wouldn't want any other way. I'm glad Chris allows us to enjoy the fascination of weather here and express our thoughts, opinions and frustration 🙄. I hope to add more in time, I'm retired now but love weather since I was a kid watching the Blizzard of 78 bury us at home for a week..it was my intro to the wild, wacky weather phenomenon! I have been hooked every since, I went to school for it but had a knack for other things too so I pursued that direction and have kept it more of a hobby.Today I'm eating crow with my family and friends..lol but they all still love me and know I will be ready for the next "big storm". Thanks for the vine, and I look forward to lurking, occasionally commenting in the future! Have fun before it all melts..
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 10:02:04 GMT -6
Saturday looks like a classic temperature over performer in the metro in my opinion.
Also, some signs of a runaway Fgen band in the Midwest.
My guess is we hear about a prolific over performer for snow across Iowa.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 25, 2023 10:11:45 GMT -6
Saturday looks like a classic temperature over performer in the metro in my opinion. Also, some signs of a runaway Fgen band in the Midwest. My guess is we hear about a prolific over performer for snow across Iowa. You know it won’t be around here…. We had our once in 50 years over performer in November lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 10:29:37 GMT -6
12z ggem is suppressed next week mostly keeping the ice threat contained to southern Missouri and bringing a little light snow to the metro.
12z gfs cuts the energy off way south taking forever to eject out. This keeps the ice threat contained to Arkansas.
Things will have to eject out much quicker or the initial pieces will be suppressed and any kicker piece will be out of cold air.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2023 10:32:53 GMT -6
"next week is gonna be huge!"
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2023 10:37:32 GMT -6
How can we talk about or get excited about next week or a possible ice storm 10 days out when the models can’t even get close 4-6 hours out
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