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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 10:40:19 GMT -6
How can we talk about or get excited about next week or a possible ice storm 10 days out when the models can’t even get close 4-6 hours out Should we close the forum to comments until snow is falling? Most of the fun is tracking the storm for me. All people have to do is interpret the data with extreme skepticism which is how most data and information should be approached anyway.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 10:41:06 GMT -6
How can we talk about or get excited about next week or a possible ice storm 10 days out when the models can’t even get close 4-6 hours out You know how this works... And it's a week out...not 10 days
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 10:42:52 GMT -6
12z ggem is suppressed next week mostly keeping the ice threat contained to southern Missouri and bringing a little light snow to the metro. 12z gfs cuts the energy off way south taking forever to eject out. This keeps the ice threat contained to Arkansas. Things will have to eject out much quicker or the initial pieces will be suppressed and any kicker piece will be out of cold air. The GEM looks way too far south with the boundary placement given the upper flow orientation. Typical cold bias at this range. The fact that the NBM agrees with the EC is concerning.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 25, 2023 10:47:00 GMT -6
I'm working on a map of the sfc, 850, and 500 features overlaid with snow totals. I'm waiting for the official snowfall graphic though. The preliminary axis of heaviest snowfall was about 40 nm left of the 850 mb track. Yeah... the first wave was closer to the 850 low than the more typical distance. But the deformation snow in the second phase more closely followed the traditional distance for the 500 vort/700 mb/ etc. There is no question that elevation was a huge factor in all of this... so was the urban heat island and the slower dynamic cooling than expected. Elevation played a big part here. I am close to the gasconade river and in a lower lying area and I have about 5 inches. Just a few miles up the road in Dixon proper on top of the hill they are measuring over 6 close to 7. That’s only 7 miles away.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 10:49:50 GMT -6
12z ggem is suppressed next week mostly keeping the ice threat contained to southern Missouri and bringing a little light snow to the metro. 12z gfs cuts the energy off way south taking forever to eject out. This keeps the ice threat contained to Arkansas. Things will have to eject out much quicker or the initial pieces will be suppressed and any kicker piece will be out of cold air. The GEM looks way too far south with the boundary placement given the upper flow orientation. Typical cold bias at this range. The fact that the NBM agrees with the EC is concerning. Yeah, just stating some verbatim observations. I don’t have any faith in the gfs lol. Just feel obligated to mention it since it is popular. The 12z Ukmet looks pretty interesting…
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2023 10:51:08 GMT -6
I know I was just venting, I’ll be back to model worshiping by tomorrow once I catch on some sleep
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 25, 2023 11:02:03 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 11:03:30 GMT -6
Just glancing at the GEFS members, almost all of them look further north than the operational run for next week. Looks like it may be multiple rounds of precipitation as energy breaks away from the trough out west.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 11:03:48 GMT -6
No longer excited for ice. After spending hours on 64 one december a few years ago due to frizzle, no mas.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2023 11:06:56 GMT -6
Yeah ukmet has an icy look. Subfreezing surface, warm 850s and decent qpf.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 11:16:09 GMT -6
Certainly a signal for something next week. Cold(at the surface) shouldn’t be in short supply.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 11:33:36 GMT -6
I know I was just venting, I’ll be back to model worshiping by tomorrow once I catch on some sleep You and me both lol... Lots of frustration to around. There will be some interesting discussion in the Broadcast Meteorology course I'm teaching at SLU. Second class of the year is tonight
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Post by dschreib on Jan 25, 2023 11:52:14 GMT -6
What's really neat is how those 6" totals approached the river and then just vanished into thin air. That's so awesome.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 25, 2023 12:04:21 GMT -6
New t-shirt?
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2023 12:08:06 GMT -6
How can we talk about or get excited about next week or a possible ice storm 10 days out when the models can’t even get close 4-6 hours out Should we close the forum to comments until snow is falling? Most of the fun is tracking the storm for me. All people have to do is interpret the data with extreme skepticism which is how most data and information should be approached anyway. 100% this.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 25, 2023 12:29:03 GMT -6
I know I was just venting, I’ll be back to model worshiping by tomorrow once I catch on some sleep You and me both lol... Lots of frustration to around. There will be some interesting discussion in the Broadcast Meteorology course I'm teaching at SLU. Second class of the year is tonight Bet that is going to be fun tonight.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 25, 2023 12:30:12 GMT -6
The snow I got is already starting to melt.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 12:35:42 GMT -6
12z euro shows a high impact ice and snow event Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
Wow
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2023 12:38:33 GMT -6
12z euro shows a high impact ice and snow event Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Wow Yep. Buckle up. Lmao
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 12:39:26 GMT -6
That would cause a few issues
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 12:49:41 GMT -6
Here is the LSX snowfall map. And here is a map of the 500mb, 850mb, and sfc features with this storm with the area of heavy snowfall depicted in blue. The two highest storm totals I could find were 12" near Lanton, MO and 10" near Farmington, MO. Note that the blue rectangle is just a rough outline. Snowfall amounts were highly variable. And if I were to box out the snow in southwest MO and northwest AR you'd see a wide box oriented almost due W-to-E covering a good portion of both NW AR and SW MO. There were a lot of 6" reports closer to Springfield, MO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 12:56:43 GMT -6
Did the 500mb low really track that far south?
Models were insistent for several days it would track right up 44
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 13:00:48 GMT -6
The red line is the 500 mb vorticity max track. I used the smoothed 32 km NAM analysis for it. The low was definitely further north. The G&Y rule is for the vorticity max. Though they do state 2 other rules for the 500mb heights and thicknesses. The later two rules are more difficult to assess so I didn't bother.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2023 13:01:23 GMT -6
Just posted on facebook the snow and ice for next week. They will get them going.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 13:03:07 GMT -6
I wonder if the axis of heaviest snow is somewhat modulated by the stacking of the lows. For example, the surface and 850mb lows were spread out a lot more initially and then converged. Interestingly the axis of heaviest snow started out far way from the 850mb low and tucked in closer later in the period. The snow field was also wider at the beginning and then tapered down.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 25, 2023 13:04:10 GMT -6
It sure looked pretty in Kirkwood, but it wasn't even cold getting outside this morning. The question I have is does the NWS or local Mets have this one in their back pocket for future reference. Did they sound the Winter Storm Warning too early? Instead of having a full day of models and by 4pm this forum saw something and why was the rest of the media slow to react. I was disappointed in seeing a computer models on air instead of seeing an actual forecast. We need better visual to show the public to not focus on the top number. Circle the lower number or highlight the number most in the Metro will see 4-6? It's not easy but I hear frustrustion from the people that ask me for the latest forecast. I know you can't be less aggressive now when an event is about to unfold because each storm is different. But the Temperatures were a big red flag from the beginning. "Border line Temps". Rest up and recharge. It's like a top professional athlete losing. We get back up and show up the next day. Great work by all and the effort spent. Thank you!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2023 13:04:20 GMT -6
Now that the general public can’t read our posts in here we can bash them as much as we want
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2023 13:19:16 GMT -6
They still can I think lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 13:26:36 GMT -6
12z euro would be really bad because it has the arctic hammer coming down following the modeled icing.
Raw output is -13 F at STL for next Friday morning.
So, we keep an eye on it because of the potential, but acknowledge this actual outcome is very unlikely at this range.
It is simply within the distribution of outcomes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 13:30:35 GMT -6
Now that the general public can’t read our posts in here we can bash them as much as we want Haha... not quite. I haven't closed it down yet.
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