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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 13:32:54 GMT -6
Here is the LSX snowfall map. And here is a map of the 500mb, 850mb, and sfc features with this storm with the area of heavy snowfall depicted in blue. The two highest storm totals I could find were 12" near Lanton, MO and 10" near Farmington, MO. Note that the blue rectangle is just a rough outline. Snowfall amounts were highly variable. And if I were to box out the snow in southwest MO and northwest AR you'd see a wide box oriented almost due W-to-E covering a good portion of both NW AR and SW MO. There were a lot of 6" reports closer to Springfield, MO. I appreciate your efforts here. Chris could probably use this for his lecture tonight. Really insightful stuff.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 13:43:22 GMT -6
I wonder if the axis of heaviest snow is somewhat modulated by the stacking of the lows. For example, the surface and 850mb lows were spread out a lot more initially and then converged. Interestingly the axis of heaviest snow started out far way from the 850mb low and tucked in closer later in the period. The snow field was also wider at the beginning and then tapered down. Not surprising that the heaviest totals occurred at elevation near 1kft. Like 920 said, that totals map is basically an overlay of the topographic map. I'd say that's heavily skewing the axis of heaviest snowfall in relation to the synoptic scale low/vort tracks.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 13:48:48 GMT -6
12z EPS means for next week are already concerning looking. No doubt things will shift around in the coming days. But with the degree of arctic air the models having coming down, an ice storm would be really, really bad.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 13:49:21 GMT -6
I wonder if the axis of heaviest snow is somewhat modulated by the stacking of the lows. For example, the surface and 850mb lows were spread out a lot more initially and then converged. Interestingly the axis of heaviest snow started out far way from the 850mb low and tucked in closer later in the period. The snow field was also wider at the beginning and then tapered down. Not surprising that the heaviest totals occurred at elevation near 1kft. Like 920 said, that totals map is basically an overlay of the topographic map. I'd say that's heavily skewing the axis of heaviest snowfall in relation to the synoptic scale low/vort tracks. Good point, can we overlay with QPF?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 13:51:05 GMT -6
Here is the LSX snowfall map. And here is a map of the 500mb, 850mb, and sfc features with this storm with the area of heavy snowfall depicted in blue. The two highest storm totals I could find were 12" near Lanton, MO and 10" near Farmington, MO. Note that the blue rectangle is just a rough outline. Snowfall amounts were highly variable. And if I were to box out the snow in southwest MO and northwest AR you'd see a wide box oriented almost due W-to-E covering a good portion of both NW AR and SW MO. There were a lot of 6" reports closer to Springfield, MO. I appreciate your efforts here. Chris could probably use this for his lecture tonight. Really insightful stuff. Thanks. It is a learning opportunity for me. I hadn't even bothered reading the Goree/Younkin and Browne/Younkin publications until this storm. I hadn't realized the rules were statistical in nature. In other words, the 90 nm and 150 nm rules are only the peaks of the probability distributions. It was also insightful to see that topography and the urban heat island likely (in my non-expert opinion) played a role in this storm due to the borderline temperatures down at the surface. Anyway, I think this storm highlights the usefulness of the GYB method. It would be awesome if one day a met did a more thorough historical analysis and built simple to read graphs of the PDFs (probability density functions) of the displacement distances from the historical cases covering a more broad period like satellite era 1979-present.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 13:51:49 GMT -6
That finger of 6-8" amounts that stretches just east of the river near Chester makes me wonder if there was enhanced dynamical cooling near the low center though. Modoc is only around 400' elevation.
It was a very, very tricky system to nail down for sure.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 13:52:05 GMT -6
I wonder if the axis of heaviest snow is somewhat modulated by the stacking of the lows. For example, the surface and 850mb lows were spread out a lot more initially and then converged. Interestingly the axis of heaviest snow started out far way from the 850mb low and tucked in closer later in the period. The snow field was also wider at the beginning and then tapered down. Not surprising that the heaviest totals occurred at elevation near 1kft. Like 920 said, that totals map is basically an overlay of the topographic map. I'd say that's heavily skewing the axis of heaviest snowfall in relation to the synoptic scale low/vort tracks. Excellent point. And I'll add that the St. Louis UHI probably played role in the immediate metro area as well.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 13:56:17 GMT -6
I also wonder if snow cooled air in the higher elevations of the plateau sloshed down into the river valley.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 13:58:52 GMT -6
Little doubt in my mind that the UHI played a substantial role, similar to that weird horseshoe shaped clipper we had last year where the Metro got hosed with cold rain and the surrounding hills got a nice snow fall.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2023 14:02:05 GMT -6
We should turn out all our lights in the metro for the next storm
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 14:03:05 GMT -6
I'm working on a map of the sfc, 850, and 500 features overlaid with snow totals. I'm waiting for the official snowfall graphic though. The preliminary axis of heaviest snowfall was about 40 nm left of the 850 mb track. Would it make any difference or more sense to overlay it with precip totals? As dschreib pointed out last night, the precip was coming down as snow nearer the higher intensity precip rates. If the temp was more uniformly colder across the area, aall the precip would hv come down as snow. I dont know how our precip totals stacked up to farmington and possibly lsr might have impacted it as well.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 14:07:47 GMT -6
And as i catch up in my reading, i see that my question has been raised in some form by others, but also wanted to add...i saw your diagram on the snow and good work. Would be interesting to see the precip totals overall.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 14:10:43 GMT -6
We should turn out all our lights in the metro for the next storm Build a bunch of wind turbines around the area. Let them generate power on normal windy days. But run them in reverse like fans blowing in cold air from wherever for the next borderline temperature storm.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2023 14:14:38 GMT -6
Put them in the Mississippi... it will make our view from the east side so much more pretty
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 25, 2023 14:18:31 GMT -6
I wonder if the axis of heaviest snow is somewhat modulated by the stacking of the lows. For example, the surface and 850mb lows were spread out a lot more initially and then converged. Interestingly the axis of heaviest snow started out far way from the 850mb low and tucked in closer later in the period. The snow field was also wider at the beginning and then tapered down. Not surprising that the heaviest totals occurred at elevation near 1kft. Like 920 said, that totals map is basically an overlay of the topographic map. I'd say that's heavily skewing the axis of heaviest snowfall in relation to the synoptic scale low/vort tracks. Also, after the 500mb, 850mb, and surface tracks and topography, a third variable already mentioned is the pesky STL metro urban heat island effect. It helped if you lived further south in a more rural area last night because the rain changed to snow quicker!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 14:38:41 GMT -6
Agree that highest snow totals are strongly correlated with elevation, save for the finger into Chester. But also it was more than elevation...both cape girardeau and poplar bluff were getting snow 4 hours before st louis. The elevation in downtown cape is is pretty low. They started at 38 with heavy snow and the temp probably fell to 33 once the snow started. Could that be explained by being closer to lift thus higher intensity of precip (or some other forcing causing the higher intensity)as well as st louis uhi. No doubt uhi played a role overall in delaying the changeover but there was a larger area of rain over central mo at the same time when PB was reporting 3 in of snow.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 25, 2023 14:47:35 GMT -6
Our Festus precip started as a few hours of rain, and finally at a temp of 38 it changed over and we were still snowing at 3:30a with what looked like 2-3 inches at 36 deg and at 7:30a it was still snowing finely and our 2-3 inches hadn’t increased much and it was still 36. Just glad we got some white stuff!
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 25, 2023 14:49:17 GMT -6
Our temp remained at 47-41 throughout the rain, so I knew we weren’t getting the amts predicted.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 15:26:52 GMT -6
Our Festus precip started as a few hours of rain, and finally at a temp of 38 it changed over and we were still snowing at 3:30a with what looked like 2-3 inches at 36 deg and at 7:30a it was still snowing finely and our 2-3 inches hadn’t increased much and it was still 36. Just glad we got some white stuff! Yep we got accumulating snow. They called for snow. To me, while the impact was lower than expected, it was not a bust. The nws reports 1 to 3 fell near where i live which is actually not that far from predicted totals and im not going to compare my exact cross street address againstcwhat was predicted for my cross street. Given all the factors and how marginal the set up was, id say it (the verification) was better than i wouldve expected for such a tough forecast. Now, not looking forward to ice. Hopefully sleet over freezing rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 15:29:45 GMT -6
Wow, they listed Leadwood...dont hear too much about that place. My dad was Athletic Director and math teacher there in the 1930s.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2023 15:33:11 GMT -6
And as i catch up in my reading, i see that my question has been raised in some form by others, but also wanted to add...i saw your diagram on the snow and good work. Would be interesting to see the precip totals overall. You can get the precipitation analysis here. The precipitation totals were generally along and to the right of the 850mb track and to the left of the surface low track.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2023 16:00:41 GMT -6
I can’t believe I’m sitting here refreshing the 18z gfs for the next 6 days potential. Cure me from this addiction!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 16:12:53 GMT -6
I think the extension of the snow into IL was as much a function of the MUCH stronger lift associated with the 850 WAA down there...way ahead of the sfc and mid level features, it allowed for a faster cooling via strong lift and boom... you have 3 or 4 quick inches with wave one. So often that WAA causes temps to go up...but in this case temps dropped at 850...implying strong dynamic cooling. Once that first few inches was down, the path was greased for the precip associated with the PVA and vort max to accumulate immediately. We just didnt get the same lift in the first push around/before midnight as they did in the south...and the mesoscale banding down there was impressive as it lifted north within the strong WAA. Without even a little snow from the early wave, it took longer for the second wave to start sticking.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 25, 2023 16:19:12 GMT -6
The post mortem analysis that is done is always awesome. I wasn’t expecting much in SPI, and I wasn’t disappointed.
The storm itself was a thing of beauty on radar. It’s been a minute since I’ve witnessed a true comma look on a storm…during winter. It stinks that the temps were so marginal. A degree or two colder and it would’ve been a good little storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 16:20:40 GMT -6
I can’t believe I’m sitting here refreshing the 18z gfs for the next 6 days potential. Cure me from this addiction! We need to start a weather addict support group lol
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paul52
Weather Weenie
Posts: 14
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Post by paul52 on Jan 25, 2023 16:34:57 GMT -6
Having Grown-up in Boston,lived in Mt.Hood area of Oregon, Bend Oregon,and Salt Lake City...the Stl region is by far the toughest area to forecast Snow.. It's hard to get a real good area wide storm here..been a few since I moved here in 2012 but far between. Wanted to say I've been a lurker..(observer) since I found the board back when I relocated here. Decided to come out of the woodwork and Contribute. It's a great place to watch,read,laugh and be frustrated all in 24 hours time, but I wouldn't want any other way. I'm glad Chris allows us to enjoy the fascination of weather here and express our thoughts, opinions and frustration 🙄. I hope to add more in time, I'm retired now but love weather since I was a kid watching the Blizzard of 78 bury us at home for a week..it was my intro to the wild, wacky weather phenomenon! I have been hooked every since, I went to school for it but had a knack for other things too so I pursued that direction and have kept it more of a hobby.Today I'm eating crow with my family and friends..lol but they all still love me and know I will be ready for the next "big storm". Thanks for the vine, and I look forward to lurking, occasionally commenting in the future! Have fun before it all melts.. Hey Chowderhead, Also a Boston native. Grew up in Hingham and still miss New England winters. Agree that forecasting is an unusual challenge in STL area. Back east, the Atlantic Ocean both giveth and taketh away. It doesn't hurt having Quebec up the road too! Seems the Atlantic has some degree of smoothing the rough edges of forecast challenges in NE. Of course, I do recall plenty of times when a promised coastal snowstorm was all rain for those of us near the water only to bury towns 10 miles inland. I'm no expert but the forecasting intricacies/challenges here are maddening and many compared to Boston. Go Pats!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2023 16:39:32 GMT -6
I can’t believe I’m sitting here refreshing the 18z gfs for the next 6 days potential. Cure me from this addiction! We need to start a weather addict support group lol We do act as a support group at times.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2023 17:03:09 GMT -6
We need to start a weather addict support group lol We do act as a support group at times. Hi, my name is Amstilost and I'm a ICON-aholic.
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Post by weatherman222 on Jan 25, 2023 17:07:32 GMT -6
This storm has sure had an impact on the electric providers down here. I was reading on a fellow members FB page that our power cooperative down here set a new record for outages with this storm with a max of 18,000 without power. Still reporting roughly 13,000 without power as of this afternoon with 2,200 without power in Madison County, MO.
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Post by sgdragons on Jan 25, 2023 17:52:30 GMT -6
This storm has sure had an impact on the electric providers down here. I was reading on a fellow members FB page that our power cooperative down here set a new record for outages with this storm with a max of 18,000 without power. Still reporting roughly 13,000 without power as of this afternoon with 2,200 without power in Madison County, MO. I am currently still without power(since 4:45am). Hoping that changes in the next few hours.
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