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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 25, 2023 18:08:49 GMT -6
Good Job Chris on the forecast. It really was a wacky storm. And by the snowfall amounts reported. It really wasn't a bad forecast at all. Snow still fell. Heavier down south. Yes northern sections definitely had some weird sporadic amounts all around. Shows you that Dynamical cooling ,elevation, banding and WAA all play a huge crucial roll. You can't forecast those too well. Those are always nowcast situations. And they change things in an instant.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 18:09:53 GMT -6
This storm has sure had an impact on the electric providers down here. I was reading on a fellow members FB page that our power cooperative down here set a new record for outages with this storm with a max of 18,000 without power. Still reporting roughly 13,000 without power as of this afternoon with 2,200 without power in Madison County, MO. You guys got the same caliber of storm we had up here in Dec 2013 that knocked out power.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 25, 2023 18:50:58 GMT -6
This storm has sure had an impact on the electric providers down here. I was reading on a fellow members FB page that our power cooperative down here set a new record for outages with this storm with a max of 18,000 without power. Still reporting roughly 13,000 without power as of this afternoon with 2,200 without power in Madison County, MO. Interesting given all the opportunities with ice storms and summer thunderstorms and severe weather.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 25, 2023 19:13:14 GMT -6
Having Grown-up in Boston,lived in Mt.Hood area of Oregon, Bend Oregon,and Salt Lake City...the Stl region is by far the toughest area to forecast Snow.. It's hard to get a real good area wide storm here..been a few since I moved here in 2012 but far between. Wanted to say I've been a lurker..(observer) since I found the board back when I relocated here. Decided to come out of the woodwork and Contribute. It's a great place to watch,read,laugh and be frustrated all in 24 hours time, but I wouldn't want any other way. I'm glad Chris allows us to enjoy the fascination of weather here and express our thoughts, opinions and frustration 🙄. I hope to add more in time, I'm retired now but love weather since I was a kid watching the Blizzard of 78 bury us at home for a week..it was my intro to the wild, wacky weather phenomenon! I have been hooked every since, I went to school for it but had a knack for other things too so I pursued that direction and have kept it more of a hobby.Today I'm eating crow with my family and friends..lol but they all still love me and know I will be ready for the next "big storm". Thanks for the vine, and I look forward to lurking, occasionally commenting in the future! Have fun before it all melts.. Hey Chowderhead, Also a Boston native. Grew up in Hingham and still miss New England winters. Agree that forecasting is an unusual challenge in STL area. Back east, the Atlantic Ocean both giveth and taketh away. It doesn't hurt having Quebec up the road too! Seems the Atlantic has some degree of smoothing the rough edges of forecast challenges in NE. Of course, I do recall plenty of times when a promised coastal snowstorm was all rain for those of us near the water only to bury towns 10 miles inland. I'm no expert but the forecasting intricacies/challenges here are maddening and many compared to Boston. Go Pats!
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 25, 2023 19:18:10 GMT -6
Hi Paul Yes I grew up in Westford so I was one of the more Fortunate ones you speak of, being outside of 495 was usually the Jackpot! Kid of like North of 70..usually. I'm in Waterloo probably had 3.5 last night. I'm a huge Boston fan..all teams sorry STL.dont hate on me. I do still support and root for the Cardinals and Blues! Heck I meet my second wife shortly after I moved here, She is a beautiful Midwest Lady! Waterloo born and raised...so over last 10 yrs you can imagine our butting of heads over sports..lol. Great story about 2013 WS but I'll share that at another time!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 19:32:03 GMT -6
18z euro control run is a big ol ice and snowstorm early next week
18z GEFS was highly supportive of that as well
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2023 19:53:08 GMT -6
Snow is the timing Tuesday into Wednesday at this point
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 19:59:52 GMT -6
18z euro control run is a big ol ice and snowstorm early next week 18z GEFS was highly supportive of that as well Definitely something brewing next week of some flavor. Models have been pretty consistent showing that overrunning setup for days now...it just got moved back a couple days.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2023 20:01:11 GMT -6
Snow is the timing Tuesday into Wednesday at this point Yeah, with the focus more on Tuesday from what I've looked at but it could be a long duration, piecemeal ejection scenario.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2023 20:16:53 GMT -6
Seen many of those piecemeal set ups bring some big sleet storms.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2023 20:22:35 GMT -6
Power finally back on at 7 tonight. Right after we settled into my aunts house for the night haha. Not complaining, glad to be back at home with power. Toddlers change things.
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Post by perryville on Jan 25, 2023 20:35:44 GMT -6
Seen many of those piecemeal set ups bring some big sleet storms. I will take a big sleet storm any time over freezing rain. Cold air in place, moisture running over the top, you can almost guarantee sleet down here where nobody lives. As for the electric, black river took a beating. They are looking at 2-3 more days of work to restore each household.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2023 22:02:16 GMT -6
Still concerned about Saturday night into Sunday morning - light rain could turn into a frizzle event overnight. As for next week, to me, looks like a period of unsettled with some overrunning wintry mix possible, but I'll file that under the heading "wait and see" for a few days. I think we will have several shots at icy weather over the next couple weeks, although op models aren't sure about the cold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 22:18:58 GMT -6
Stretched Polar Vortex should get us cold through early February.
Ural troughing has replaced Ural ridging making it unlikely we get a major SSW. Instead, probably a minor SSW.
So, I would expect a relatively mild period from the 7th-15th or so, before we close out February cold.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2023 22:26:37 GMT -6
We couldn't predict this snow until 6 hours of the event...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 22:36:39 GMT -6
We couldn't predict this snow until 6 hours of the event... Speaking in broad strokes about the relative pattern based on some of the leading experts studying the effects of the polar vortex. Feel free to ignore or provide better insights. Not sure anyone gained much from the one liner personally
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2023 22:38:28 GMT -6
Relax... it was a haha
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2023 22:53:34 GMT -6
00z gfs, ggem, and Ukmet are pretty suppressed next week.
Interestingly, there is a very strong signal for an ice and snowstorm on the 00z gfs ensembles.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 25, 2023 22:57:19 GMT -6
00z gfs, ggem, and Ukmet are pretty suppressed next week. Interestingly, there is a very strong signal for an ice and snowstorm on the 00z gfs ensembles. If the UKMET and ggem say no, then it’s a no.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 23:00:57 GMT -6
Ya the GEFS members continue to be much more bullish on precep next week than the operational run
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Post by weatherman222 on Jan 25, 2023 23:27:51 GMT -6
This storm has sure had an impact on the electric providers down here. I was reading on a fellow members FB page that our power cooperative down here set a new record for outages with this storm with a max of 18,000 without power. Still reporting roughly 13,000 without power as of this afternoon with 2,200 without power in Madison County, MO. Interesting given all the opportunities with ice storms and summer thunderstorms and severe weather. You would think. BREC has had a rough go from their headquarters being wiped out from the tornado then a little over a year later the rest of their infrastructure takes a hit. I figured the ice storms in the late 2000's would have been worse but apparently not. This caused nearly the same amount of damage as an ice storm for sure.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 25, 2023 23:38:20 GMT -6
I know one fact.
If its an over running set up showing solid accumulating snow here. I can guarantee you that KC to Kirksville will get historic amounts from an epic fgen or waa band caused by a fart in the wind
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 26, 2023 2:38:50 GMT -6
the 00z euro has come in deeper with the arctic airmass next week but still has 3 chances for winter precip attm.
The OP GFS is much better with the day 5 system.
so is the GEFS.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2023 7:53:11 GMT -6
Sunday morning could be a bit dicey around here. Especially N viewing areas. That cold front comes crashing in pretty fast and RGEM and GFS are showing some lagging precip behind that front that could drop a thin layer of ice/mix.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 26, 2023 9:18:40 GMT -6
We have Grandparents Day/Open House at school on Sunday. Getting nervous about the idea of our grandparents walking between church and school with icy conditions. Glad it’s not my call. Hoping the ice holds off.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 26, 2023 9:49:13 GMT -6
Little doubt in my mind that the UHI played a substantial role, similar to that weird horseshoe shaped clipper we had last year where the Metro got hosed with cold rain and the surrounding hills got a nice snow fall. I wonder if that accounts for this weird semi-circular "bite" in the snow totals surround STL, particular in the SW, S, SE and E direction around the city. After having a point forecast for somewhere between 6-10" in Edwardsville on almost every model to wake up to 1.5" of wet slop...this ranks as one of the most disappointing storms in my life.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2023 10:13:17 GMT -6
The sad thing is Kirksville received twice the amount of snow we did and they were 200 miles north of us
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2023 10:19:18 GMT -6
It is what it is...STL is just a notorious snow hole. A large majority of the winter storms that come through here are some borderline BS.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 10:28:47 GMT -6
I still wonder if that convection along the gulf coast “pulled” the system further SE at the last minute. All the short range guidance was looking great, until about 00z when they all shifted SE suddenly. We were really banking on the high precep rates with the initial WAA thump to overpower the borderline surface temps in the metro.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2023 10:29:53 GMT -6
It is what it is...STL is just a notorious snow hole. A large majority of the winter storms that come through here are some borderline BS. The ever growing UHI has to be the most important factor with our snow issues, I would think. The UHI has only grown substantially over the last 50 years. Another factor I think has some merit is the reason I chose only 50 years. If you were to take the 3-4 highly skewed record snow years out of the overall averages that would make a more realistic yearly average that would temper the 'higher yearly average' that we, (me anyway) 'expect' every year. When I get time I will try and figure that out what that difference would be. Edit: Just a quick look at the running yearly snowfall average from NWS STL site you can see the up and down of the 2 most significant 'Dream Years'. Based on the frequency of 65 years betweem 'Dream Years' we only have to wait a few more years.
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