Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Jan 26, 2023 10:32:46 GMT -6
Seen many of those piecemeal set ups bring some big sleet storms. I will take a big sleet storm any time over freezing rain. Cold air in place, moisture running over the top, you can almost guarantee sleet down here where nobody lives. As for the electric, black river took a beating. They are looking at 2-3 more days of work to restore each household. Same here. I've worked for Black River for 30 plus years and saw ice storms, the 2009 derecho and now this snow. The next few days are going to be a slog. I can't imagine an ice storm after what we've gone thru the past two days. Of course, I couldn't imagine a tornado poking sticks into the stucco above my office window either.....
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 10:45:57 GMT -6
Models are still all over the place with the energy next week. Seems like the trend is for the stuff early in the week to come out flatter and more energy to be held back. The 12z GEM actually spins up a big southern low late next week that clobbers the area.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 26, 2023 10:52:20 GMT -6
Models are still all over the place with the energy next week. Seems like the trend is for the stuff early in the week to come out flatter and more energy to be held back. The 12z GEM actually spins up a big southern low late next week that clobbers the area. Actual arctic air to interact with this time hopefully.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2023 10:53:55 GMT -6
Models are still all over the place with the energy next week. Seems like the trend is for the stuff early in the week to come out flatter and more energy to be held back. The 12z GEM actually spins up a big southern low late next week that clobbers the area. Yeah, there's a smorgasbord of potential outcomes next week. But the large-scale features are favorable for something to develop across the central US. Ensembles look pretty favorable for our region...a lot of operational models look suppressed.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2023 11:01:14 GMT -6
UKmet has a decent hit of ice.
Edit: Looking at full run it has two hits. That run would cause serious issues.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2023 11:01:25 GMT -6
12z Ukmet has a significant and long duration ice storm next week…
Temperatures in the low to mid 20s are more important than QPF.
And QPF is still quite high across parts of the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 11:03:23 GMT -6
To add even more confusion, the UKMET ejects the energy much quicker and hits the area with two waves of snow and ice early next week.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2023 11:03:55 GMT -6
Looking at soundings on pivotal and quite the warm nose around 850 running almost 4 to 5 degrees Celsius with surface temps around 20.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2023 11:04:30 GMT -6
Yes they are definitely drier today , the GEFS has more than the op model but less than yesterday. Hopefully we can get something out of next week, hopefully it’s not cold suppression city followed by warming and rain.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2023 11:09:05 GMT -6
Gem tries to get the precipitation up to us Tuesday but shunts it down pretty quickly. GFS definitely the most suppressed, Ukmet the most precipitation. That’s a cold ice storm, hopefully sleet not freezing rain
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2023 11:11:22 GMT -6
Notable shift south on GEFS as far as HP placement. Yesterday, it was closer to N. Iowa. Today, S. Iowa into W/C Illinois. GEFS is still much further N with precip than the original.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 26, 2023 11:46:41 GMT -6
Am I correct in saying that Uncle Ukie did the best with yesterday's system?
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Post by bear1 on Jan 26, 2023 12:12:17 GMT -6
What's going on with the forecast for today (mostly cloudy)?? Sun's been shining here all morning, Blue skies & not a cloud in site??? Temp at 28° as of 12:pm.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2023 12:46:06 GMT -6
Euro suppressed all precipitation next week, pretty much GEFS and Ukmet are the only two models showing anything meaningful. Hopefully the HP comes in weaker and the pieces of energy come out stronger
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Post by sgdragons on Jan 26, 2023 13:03:06 GMT -6
Seen many of those piecemeal set ups bring some big sleet storms. I will take a big sleet storm any time over freezing rain. Cold air in place, moisture running over the top, you can almost guarantee sleet down here where nobody lives. As for the electric, black river took a beating. They are looking at 2-3 more days of work to restore each household. We just got our power on today around 8:45am(went out 4:30am yesterday). I haven't checked whether our place on the Black River still had power, I just assumed it didn't. That place loses power when it's sunny and 75. lol It's crazy that THIS was the storm that caused such issues, after some of the thunderstorms/tornados/ice we've had over the years. But it's definitely the longest we've been without power since prolly 2012ish. We lost it during one of the snow/-15 windchill storms for a day back then. Had to fork the wood in a little faster then, than I did yesterday. Such is life in the rural sections of Missouri. I do appreciate the workers that efficiently got things done.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 26, 2023 13:10:07 GMT -6
We don't need a monster storm to track then slap us in the face again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2023 13:12:09 GMT -6
I envy you folks down in the Ozarks. I drove up 67 on Sunday coming back from Arkansas and the landscape just stuns me with it's beauty every single time. I'll probably move down there eventually.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 13:21:36 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 13:24:49 GMT -6
Just like the GFS, the euro ensembles argue for a further north placement of the precep next week. The EPS mean QPF charts looks a lot like the UKMET with two distinct waves of ice and snow next week.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 26, 2023 14:36:30 GMT -6
It is what it is...STL is just a notorious snow hole. A large majority of the winter storms that come through here are some borderline BS. The ever growing UHI has to be the most important factor with our snow issues, I would think. The UHI has only grown substantially over the last 50 years. Another factor I think has some merit is the reason I chose only 50 years. If you were to take the 3-4 highly skewed record snow years out of the overall averages that would make a more realistic yearly average that would temper the 'higher yearly average' that we, (me anyway) 'expect' every year. When I get time I will try and figure that out what that difference would be. Edit: Just a quick look at the running yearly snowfall average from NWS STL site you can see the up and down of the 2 most significant 'Dream Years'. Based on the frequency of 65 years betweem 'Dream Years' we only have to wait a few more years. I don't know. I'm 40-ish miles southeast of STL. I would think that's far enough away from the UHI effects, and I'd argue that the immediate metro has had significantly more snow than we have in recent years. I keep waiting for the Prairie State Energy Plant-enhanced snowfall, or the Baldwin Power Plant-enhanced snowfall...but I don't see it happening.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 26, 2023 14:38:04 GMT -6
Just like the GFS, the euro ensembles argue for a further north placement of the precep next week. The EPS mean QPF charts looks a lot like the UKMET with two distinct waves of ice and snow next week. I would argue that we are still in the ensemble guidance part of the forecast. Makes sense at this range.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 26, 2023 14:43:21 GMT -6
Yeah i focused on the upper air charts the other day, and dudnt pay attn to any qpf beyond 5 days, and it didnt look like any major systems that would cause too many page turners on this forum. But of course a light icing from embedded disturbances could be a high impact for us especially with the progged temps. With a pretty sustained w/sw flow that screams ice to me. I just hope its more sleet than fr rain. If models are coming in with deeper cold, then we could use a bit stronger system to throw some snow our way. Im concerned about wasted cold too, but its been my experience over and over, if storms tend to drop heavy snow 100 miles sout of us, future storms probably will favor a more southern track as well until the pattern changes.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 26, 2023 14:46:44 GMT -6
Friends in TN were forecasted 6 to 10 inches of snow. Got a dusting from this. They luve in hilly terrain but are not nearby any city. Uhi had some impact, but there was other stuff going on with this system. Also keep the slogan in mind...st. louis where snowstorms go to die.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2023 15:28:53 GMT -6
Most of the models continue to look overly suppressed with the boundary next week given the upper flow orientation. After Sunday, there's not much coming through the N stream that would nudge the boundary further S/SE as it becomes parallel to the mid/upper flow and low-amplitude shortwaves eject off the parent trof in the SW. The UKMET fits the conceptual model that you'd expect given the large-scale pattern with multiple waves of overrunning precip impacting the region.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2023 15:35:02 GMT -6
The 12z EC sure would be a kick in the teeth with the overrunning precip missing us to the south followed by the upper low ejecting out with another rainy deformation zone across the region later in the week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 15:37:25 GMT -6
18z ICON looks similar the the Ukie
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2023 17:13:30 GMT -6
Looks like 18z GEFS is further south with precipitation early next week. It’s shifting a ton in the last 24 hours.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2023 18:54:53 GMT -6
Enjoy whatever winter weather we get next week, as signs are point toward Torchruary with well above temps from the second week of February up till at least Presidents day. Looks like March into early April might be our best shot of any prolonged cold compared to normal as Dave has already mentioned. But 'Winter' is almost certainly done after next weeks 'riding the edge' cold outbreak which has been creeping northward each cycle it seems. Along and north of I-70 might be looking at it's worst winter excitement wise since 2015/2016 and 2011/2012!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2023 18:56:47 GMT -6
At least the Pacific Fire Hose kicks in again, so it keeps us from being too boring weather wise (not sunny and boring for weeks) and even a shot at some strong storms or 2.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2023 19:02:23 GMT -6
This has been the weirdest winter so far!
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