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Post by snowjunky on Jan 26, 2023 19:07:36 GMT -6
Sure wish KC or Philly had snow during their playoff game Sunday. Football in the snow is so awesome.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 26, 2023 19:09:57 GMT -6
Enjoy whatever winter weather we get next week, as signs are point toward Torchruary with well above temps from the second week of February up till at least Presidents day. Looks like March into early April might be our best shot of any prolonged cold compared to normal as Dave has already mentioned. But 'Winter' is almost certainly done after next weeks 'riding the edge' cold outbreak which has been creeping northward each cycle it seems. Along and north of I-70 might be looking at it's worst winter excitement wise since 2015/2016 and 2011/2012! The MJO forecast would agree with a warmer than normal start to February. We go solidly into phase 3 on all models through the 9th. However, the MJO correlation hasn’t been that strong this year, so there’s that as well. Other teleconnections are a wash. I can’t find the EPO without paying.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2023 19:13:41 GMT -6
Honestly if it’s not going to snow and just be stupid cold and dry, I choose torch all day long.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 19:31:31 GMT -6
18z EPS has a 10:1 mean of 3" of snow in the metro early next week.
Mean QPF next week is 0.35" in the metro, and 0.50" across the southern counties.
Not much snow in the southern counties, so likely mostly sleet/freezing rain being modeled.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2023 20:54:58 GMT -6
18z EPS has a 10:1 mean of 3" of snow in the metro early next week. Mean QPF next week is 0.35" in the metro, and 0.50" across the southern counties. Not much snow in the southern counties, so likely mostly sleet/freezing rain being modeled. Pretty respectable at this range...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2023 21:29:51 GMT -6
Im going "icy mix possible" Mon night into tuesday. Granted, the forecast soundings are pretty coarse on the Euro and UK... but they show a decided lack of moisture in the DGZ...along with what is likely a warm wedge way up high. It screams icy mix more than snow...more sleet and ZR I am thinking.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2023 23:18:03 GMT -6
Updated my snow totals and I see I didn't log the 'just before Christmas' snow. I don't think it was much but every little bit helps. Is there a database anywhere to look that up?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 3:22:13 GMT -6
Seems like models are trending towards a stronger push from the N stream next week which argues for more suppression. But it's going to be a battle with a 590dm ridge near the Keys. Somebody is going to get a good hit of ice next week...it's just a matter of where and when.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 27, 2023 4:25:11 GMT -6
At this point after the cold and dry next week, I am ready for spring.
I know it was not a ton of snow this winter for the 70 corridor, but I still managed 5.7 inches for the season so far, and it was that brutal cold snap at christmas that did me in and made it such a wierd winter for me, plus it got pretty cold by October last year quite frequently, so it just all and all felt like a harsh winter just because of the early start and that Christmas cold snap that was very damaging across the state, including very significant problems from pipe bursts in some areas.
Now that we are closer to spring I am ready for warmer weather versus cold if its not going to snow, and I know march can produce nicely snow wise still.
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Post by sgdragons on Jan 27, 2023 7:13:17 GMT -6
I envy you folks down in the Ozarks. I drove up 67 on Sunday coming back from Arkansas and the landscape just stuns me with it's beauty every single time. I'll probably move down there eventually. Mid April-70 degree-sunny day on a stream in the Ozarks and hearing turkey's gobbling is my heaven. I love Missouri for the diverse landscape and weather. Been all over the country, and as much as I have talked myself out of never moving out West, I am convinced I live in the geographical location I was meant to.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 27, 2023 7:47:19 GMT -6
Updated my snow totals and I see I didn't log the 'just before Christmas' snow. I don't think it was much but every little bit helps. Is there a database anywhere to look that up? Here is a snowfall totals map from the snow on 12/22/22 from the NWS twitter page.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 27, 2023 8:04:29 GMT -6
If you look at the last 8 runs of the GEFS, that HP just gets further and further SE with every single run.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 27, 2023 8:11:02 GMT -6
After the four inches we got in Nov, 2-3 at Christmas and 2-3 a couple days ago, we should be at 10 inches or close to it in Festus. Not bad at this point of the season.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 27, 2023 8:34:12 GMT -6
Around 5 inches this winter imby. Question is whether we will get a late season concrete pour in march. I suppose anything is possible. Barring unforeseen changes in the weather pattern, it seems likely we will end up below normal snow for this winter.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2023 8:48:46 GMT -6
I'm shocked..SHOCKED that next week will be another load of crap most likely.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 8:52:03 GMT -6
There’s still some modeling that has a couple waves of wintry mix, GEM/RGEM/UKMET/EPS/GEFS and some that are more dry and suppressed like the Euro and GFS. Hopefully we get something next because it definitely looks ti warm up some the following week.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 8:53:13 GMT -6
Arkansas is going to get smoked again, probably 3-4 waves ice and snow
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 8:55:47 GMT -6
Unfortunately the northern cut off of any precipitation will be a sharp one most likely, the Ukmet shows this, barely into the metro. Northern viewing area looks dry southern looks to cash in once again.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 8:57:11 GMT -6
EPS is pretty bullish on that second wave Tuesday night. GEFS and GEPS aren't nearly as bullish.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 9:00:49 GMT -6
Arkansas is going to get smoked again, probably 3-4 waves ice and snow If I was in northern Arkansas, I would be pretty worried right now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 9:09:41 GMT -6
Just had a quick shower of dippin dots come through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 9:12:27 GMT -6
It's amazing how these ice storms have skirted us for 15+ years. Starting to look like this one could too...
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2023 9:20:14 GMT -6
It's amazing how these ice storms have skirted us for 15+ years. Starting to look like this one could too... 🤫 SHHHHHH……..🤣
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 27, 2023 10:06:35 GMT -6
It's amazing how these ice storms have skirted us for 15+ years. Starting to look like this one could too... At this point, I'd rather not be in the sweet spot ever again 5-6 days before.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2023 10:12:41 GMT -6
It's amazing how these ice storms have skirted us for 15+ years. Starting to look like this one could too... At this point, I'd rather not be in the sweet spot ever again 5-6 days before. or 12 hours before
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 10:14:05 GMT -6
It's amazing how these ice storms have skirted us for 15+ years. Starting to look like this one could too... At this point, I'd rather not be in the sweet spot ever again 5-6 days before. That really does seem like the kiss of death around here These systems that sneak up on us seem to produce more often
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2023 10:27:39 GMT -6
Definitely some snow and ice hitting southern Missouri next week on the 12z gfs ensembles.
12z ggem and Icon have it too.
Impact is light to moderate though rather than high with lower QPF and the arctic hammer shifting northeast.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2023 10:32:06 GMT -6
more crap weather! Everyone drink!
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 27, 2023 10:49:02 GMT -6
It's amazing how these ice storms have skirted us for 15+ years. Starting to look like this one could too... I think it's been 16 years since my location has had > 0.2" of ice. I haven't found any formal studies on the climatological recurrence of ice storms of a particular accumulation threshold (e.g. >= 0.25"). I suspect my backyard is overdue, probably WAY overdue. There is a 2021 risk assessment by FEMA that tries to calculate the risk of damaging ice storms across the country. I believe "damaging" in the study is considered damage to power, communication, or trees due to ice as recorded by the Army Corp of Engineers in their CRREL database including almost 70 years of data. In terms of frequency, population exposure, and historical/expected loss the KS/MO/OK/AR (and especially the Ozarks) and Carolinas areas stand out to me as one would expect.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2023 10:56:29 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is onboard for an icy mix south of 70 Monday night-Tuesday.
QPF of 0.2-0.3 until you get to the boot heel where significant icing is modeled.
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