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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 10:57:04 GMT -6
According to that, we get one damaging ice storm per year...lol
We've only had one event IMBY since 2007 where we got >0.1" of glaze accumulation. It was during the 12/13 winter, I believe.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 11:00:14 GMT -6
Still a very wide range of possible outcomes early next week on the GEFS. Anything from a significant winter storm to suppression city. I’m other words, normal model uncertainty at this range.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 27, 2023 11:03:33 GMT -6
I'll take #4 for $100 please.
A lot depends on how quickly the high slides off to the east. Some of the ensembles show it speeding off which allows that heavier precip to make it more north. Either way, it is going to be cold. And if we are going to have temps that cold, give me some precip with it.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 27, 2023 11:05:00 GMT -6
According to that, we get one damaging ice storm per year...lol We've only had one event IMBY since 2007 where we got >0.1" of glaze accumulation. It was during the 12/13 winter, I believe. Yeah it either doesn't pass the sniff test or we are beyond way overdue. The problem is I'm not sure what damage is recorded in the CRREL database. Is that a single power line to a single residence or a substation feeder line? Is that a 1" tree limb or a 6" branch?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 11:15:06 GMT -6
Still a very wide range of possible outcomes early next week on the GEFS. Anything from a significant winter storm to suppression city. I’m other words, normal model uncertainty at this range. A few heavy hitters in there. The OP run looks like it moves the airmass out way too quickly to me and it barely gets anything going along the boundary to begin with. Just awful.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 11:34:56 GMT -6
Bye bye, snowcover!
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 27, 2023 11:47:23 GMT -6
At this point, I'd rather not be in the sweet spot ever again 5-6 days before. or 12 hours before Or when precip actually starts falling. Only good to be in the sweet spot after the storm this year.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 27, 2023 11:51:12 GMT -6
Still a very wide range of possible outcomes early next week on the GEFS. Anything from a significant winter storm to suppression city. I’m other words, normal model uncertainty at this range. 6 of 30 show something meaningful. Not good, but not a kiss of death yet.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 12:16:24 GMT -6
Tough call on next week, I could see the suppressed solution or possible light qpf if it comes out strong enough. Who knows at this point, definitely could go either way
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 12:26:04 GMT -6
Anyone know why the Jerseyville WX radio is down? I've been getting static for days now.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 12:38:03 GMT -6
Euro is ugly, brings the precipitation to within about 25-50 miles of the metro, southern Moand Arkansas look to get several waves of frozen precipitation
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 12:43:23 GMT -6
Euro is ugly, brings the precipitation to within about 25-50 miles of the metro, southern Moand Arkansas look to get several waves of frozen precipitation That euro run is just gross overall. The cold and moisture don't want anything to do with each other.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 12:46:11 GMT -6
Tricky setup with multiple ridge centers involved. Can't imagine there wouldn't be a cold connection there.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2023 12:46:59 GMT -6
but it is further north by a fair amount compared to previous run or 2
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 12:53:03 GMT -6
That’s true snowman, by this weekend you could have the gfs and euro trending towards the Ukmet and ensemble solutions
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 14:19:30 GMT -6
EPS has very light qpf, but definitely trended way away from its past two days solutions of a decent storm. It doesn’t take much qpf (sleet/freezing rain/snow) to cause problems but we are definitely barely on the northern edge of the precipitation shields .
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2023 14:50:04 GMT -6
Monday morning looks like a low QPF and high impact event on the 18z nam.
Freezing drizzle or a light wintry mix, temps in the 20s, and the morning commute.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2023 15:08:27 GMT -6
18z rgem gets really aggressive with a major winter storm Monday/Tuesday for STL on south.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 27, 2023 15:10:46 GMT -6
Ya, im particularly concerned abt lphi next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 15:26:17 GMT -6
18z rgem gets really aggressive with a major winter storm Monday/Tuesday for STL on south. SREFs are always too amped up this far out, but they are suggesting something like that as well.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 27, 2023 15:32:09 GMT -6
As we deal with these rapid fire disturbances riding up into the mid south and oh valleys, im watching for a pattern change developing beyond next week. Hard to say if there could be a developing storm as part of that transition at this point.
But overall the wintry pattern we are in now needs to be watched for the potential of at least minor impact events and even something more impactful in isolated/local fashion.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 27, 2023 15:42:53 GMT -6
I've really lucky here to have seen around 13" so far this winter season.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 16:13:10 GMT -6
I've really lucky here to have seen around 13" so far this winter season. I've recieved a 1/3rd of your total!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 16:15:21 GMT -6
I get the feeling next week's storm is gonna favor the Ozarks again, but I could be wrong. Models are all over the place...
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 27, 2023 16:48:00 GMT -6
I've really lucky here to have seen around 13" so far this winter season. I've recieved a 1/3rd of your total! Chicago is even less on their average total.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 16:54:37 GMT -6
I agree definitely an Ozarks storm, we may get some token northern edge precipitation at some point
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2023 16:57:44 GMT -6
Monday morning looks like a low QPF and high impact event on the 18z nam. Freezing drizzle or a light wintry mix, temps in the 20s, and the morning commute. I was just coming in to post something about this. Plenty cold at the surface... saturated through the inversion. Dry air above the inversion and 20kts of warm air advection at 850mb. The only thing that may keep it from happening might be marginally dry near surface air....but some the mesoscale models are a touch more humid. I'm going to add it to my forecast.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2023 17:02:23 GMT -6
I've recieved a 1/3rd of your total! Chicago is even less on their average total. Don’t rub it in! Rgem and Ukmet give me 6 inches of snow tomorrow. Nam gives me 0 inches lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2023 17:20:28 GMT -6
At the risk of blanketing the whole week with the words "Chance Icy Mix" I'm going to try and sharp shoot a little more than I'm comfortable with in this pattern. I'm going to focus on Sunday night/Monday morning... and late Tuesday into Wednesday AM.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 17:41:31 GMT -6
At the risk of blanketing the whole week with the words "Chance Icy Mix" I'm going to try and sharp shoot a little more than I'm comfortable with in this pattern. I'm going to focus on Sunday night/Monday morning... and late Tuesday into Wednesday AM. Quite a bit of support for the energy coming out towards Thurs/Fri to possibly impact us but who knows if that's realistic or not. A lot of models keep it to the south which makes sense.
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