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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2023 11:27:01 GMT -6
I see nothing that would indicate heightened ice storm potential in our region next week (or any potential lol). Yesterday’s euro ensembles were bullish on a major SSW by mid-late February which would probably extend winter through most of March. That is the most interesting thing right now. However, we know forecasting SSW is very hard for the models like everything else. My money is on another stretch event giving us a shot at a winter storm around the 20th. The way the pattern is shaping up, I'd say the last week to 10 days of the month into early March will be our best bet for wintry weather. This stretch has been classic wasted cold, unless you enjoy frizzle and a spritz of sleet and snow that does nothing but snarl traffic. It helped facilitate a wicked Fgen band about 10 miles to my north over the weekend, so that was cool…
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2023 11:38:20 GMT -6
Big blob of -40* temps headed into Quebec...we're lucky that didn't get pulled further S.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2023 11:39:44 GMT -6
Nice to finally bust out the sunglasses, looks like we'll get to keep busting them out for a week or 2. They've been collecting a lot of dust! LOL!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2023 12:49:54 GMT -6
Hey look, more frozen stuff headed for se mo. Lightning strikes near a little rock.
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Post by weatherman222 on Jan 31, 2023 12:58:26 GMT -6
Hey look, more frozen stuff headed for se mo. Lightning strikes near a little rock. I just noticed that. Wonder if it will have any further impact for the far southern forecast area. Current forecast here is a 20% chance of flurries this afternoon.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 31, 2023 13:08:47 GMT -6
Northern edge of the precip shield sure seems to be a tad more north than modeled. Southerners may seem some sleet imgur.com/zWK4jjF
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2023 13:30:08 GMT -6
The snow goose decoy spreads we set in NE AR this weekend and last are now covered in glaze ice. Second year in a row where a major ice storm hit right as the season opens up. What a mess...
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2023 14:42:08 GMT -6
Northern edge of the precip shield sure seems to be a tad more north than modeled. Southerners may seem some sleet imgur.com/zWK4jjFHP sinking south with Dews in the low single digits. Going to be hard for anyone in viewing area to see anything. Will see that start dying out asap.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2023 14:43:04 GMT -6
Springfield has had three days in a row of snow/sleet/freezing rain looks like there getting more snow now
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2023 14:44:14 GMT -6
Looks like the next potential is around the 10-12th of February. GFS and Canadian have a eerily similar flavor of it, albeit a bit east. Cold air connection looks okay at this range I suppose.
GEFS would suggest one heckuva temp roller coaster with multiple HPs moving through between now and then.
Lastly, learned a new term...Tropical Northern Hemisphere or TNH. I guess that's a thing to look at and learn about now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2023 14:46:13 GMT -6
I've seen DM mention the TNH but I've never seen it listed anywhere as a calculated index. Assuming it's similar to the MJO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2023 14:48:47 GMT -6
SOI 30 day running mean is taking a nose dive lately...that's encouraging for the rest of the winter after the moderation next week. La Nina appears to be slowly loosing it's grip.
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 31, 2023 18:32:09 GMT -6
Northern edge of the precip shield sure seems to be a tad more north than modeled. Southerners may seem some sleet imgur.com/zWK4jjFHP sinking south with Dews in the low single digits. Going to be hard for anyone in viewing area to see anything. Will see that start dying out asap. Good call. Got a text from my son in Springfield that it was sleeting it's ash off about 1pm. Looked at my radar and saw a nice blob headed our way. When it never materialized, I looked again, and it had vanished.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2023 18:46:26 GMT -6
I've seen DM mention the TNH but I've never seen it listed anywhere as a calculated index. Assuming it's similar to the MJO. Yeah, I can’t find where it is forecasted. More than likely it is embedded somewhere with a MJO or ENSO discussion.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2023 18:48:15 GMT -6
SOI 30 day running mean is taking a nose dive lately...that's encouraging for the rest of the winter after the moderation next week. La Nina appears to be slowly loosing it's grip. That is encouraging. I believe it was the FEB/MAR period of 2014 that was remarkable. It may have been 2015. I can’t recall. Either way, it was the back half of Feb before any real winter occurred IMBY.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2023 20:59:14 GMT -6
I hate these delayed seasons. Ugh.
I mean we have had some darn cold days this season. But overall it's been warm/mild and dry. Can't believe we are already going into Feb. Christmas was a month ago!!!!! Unbelievable.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2023 21:05:07 GMT -6
I hate these delayed seasons. Ugh. I mean we have had some darn cold days this season. But overall it's been warm/mild and dry. Can't believe we are already going into Feb. Christmas was a month ago!!!!! Unbelievable. The last 4 years our winter has been Feb-Apr. Spring has been like 2 weeks in May. Summer has been May/June-Early November. Fall has been the last 2 weeks in November. Then sprall (spring+fall) is Dec-Jan.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2023 21:31:19 GMT -6
Weather sucks
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 1, 2023 0:53:06 GMT -6
Yeah it must be nice when models show a storm and it actually happens. Ice storm was shown, ice storm happened down south. Not that's what we want. We want snow. But dang!!! Lol
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 1, 2023 7:17:30 GMT -6
Maybe I am off base here, but hasn't late January/February/Early March always been our true snow producing time frame(Atleast for my 37 years on Earth)? I'm a Feb birthday, and it was always a topic of how rare it was that we would have school on my birthday as a kid. Even now, we've only been in session maybe once or twice in the last 7 years?
Our fall was pretty on point IMO. September had one warm stretch otherwise it was fantastic weather for that time of the year. Even October, other than being unseasonably dry, was great weather. If we're going to complain, complain about the EARLY snow we got in November. lol
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 1, 2023 7:28:41 GMT -6
What I’ve always had a hard time getting, it has to be cold enough to snow but when it’s cold enough finally, the storm track is not here and vice versa, and now the days are lengthening and the sun is getting higher so whatever we do get it may not be snow….Hope we don’t get any more ice this month!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2023 7:29:07 GMT -6
I think the winter is ok, but since we went almost 4 weeks in the heart of winter with no wintry precip, and dont have anything specific to track at this time, i can understand the restlessness. Some of our southern folks are pretty close to average. Forecasts this fall called for a strong polar vortex which implies long periods of dry weather. In hindsight i wish i had put more weight to that, but i thought it would weaken. We are rapidly approaching the time of year, where time of day is a huge factor in accums. There is something about a late december or january snow that makes it a decent winter, but by the time feb gets here, we are thinking of gardens and the snow doesnt last more than a day or two, with the high sun.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2023 8:30:53 GMT -6
We had a real fall, it was good. Winter has been cold like 6 days. No winter in st Louis hardly. Warm all of December until a few days before Christmas, then warm again before new years. January warm all month tila few days ago. Blah.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2023 8:45:32 GMT -6
We've basically had a week's worth of winter this season..."not great"
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 1, 2023 8:50:21 GMT -6
I'm heading to Winnipeg Canada March 5 through the 9th so I'm pretty happy I'll get a dose of winter up there!!! But more than likely you guys will get a snowstorm when I'm gone 😂
Im Ice fishing for walleye 🎣 to promote my fresh fish sales I'll be doing at my farmers market this year! Pretty Excited!!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2023 9:32:01 GMT -6
Going to get alittle cold in Maine
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2023 10:13:30 GMT -6
We've basically had a week's worth of winter this season..."not great" Perhaps I should change my profile pic on here again to channel my “Inner Mo.” Last time I did that we ended up with a 3 week mini ice age lol. I think folks need to remember that we’ve had some impressive winter weather the last few years. That front end foot plus that fell in I think 2017? The huge snow with temps in the single digits all day back in 2021, the November snows, etc. We have had some exceptional events in very recent memory.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2023 10:39:45 GMT -6
I agree with Snow and Brtn definitely not much of a winter, we’re at that point now where the potential days are limited, so the next two weeks are almost nothing. That leaves you you 2-4 weeks left . March is usually not a great snow month, it can produce but hasn’t done much the last few years
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 1, 2023 10:50:40 GMT -6
I love the seasons, one of the few reasons I haven't varied my location by much. But, by the end of January, I am done. Time to get the mower ready and garden laid out. No different than when I welcome Summer with open arms, but working outside everyday for the first few months, gets me ready for fall by August. That probably explains why I love Fall/Spring so much, rarely do I want them to leave.
And as stated above, the last 10 years we've had some pretty decent winters(you can throw out 16/17). 2012-13-14 isn't the norm.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Feb 1, 2023 10:55:09 GMT -6
I love the seasons, one of the few reasons I haven't varied my location by much. But, by the end of January, I am done. Time to get the mower ready and garden laid out. No different than when I welcome Summer with open arms, but working outside everyday for the first few months, gets me ready for fall by August. That probably explains why I love Fall/Spring so much, rarely do I want them to leave. And as stated above, the last 10 years we've had some pretty decent winters(you can throw out 16/17). 2012-13-14 isn't the norm. This is pretty much my exact feeling about the seasons. Winter wears outs its welcome for me by Groundhogs Day, and I'm already looking for Halloween decor in the stores about 2 weeks after Independence Day I think I need to live somewhere like Seattle or San Diego. Now, to cover that cost of living change......
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