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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2023 10:56:07 GMT -6
We've basically had a week's worth of winter this season..."not great" Perhaps I should change my profile pic on here again to channel my “Inner Mo.” Last time I did that we ended up with a 3 week mini ice age lol. I think folks need to remember that we’ve had some impressive winter weather the last few years. That front end foot plus that fell in I think 2017? The huge snow with temps in the single digits all day back in 2021, the November snows, etc. We have had some exceptional events in very recent memory. It's been underacheiver after underachiever up here. Last years GHD storm was the first time we broke double digits(and I mean barely) in almost 10 years. That storm in Feb 2021 was one to remember though. Possibly the only time we'll ever see it snow like that near/below zero in our lifetime.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Feb 1, 2023 10:57:14 GMT -6
I agree with Snow and Brtn definitely not much of a winter, we’re at that point now where the potential days are limited, so the next two weeks are almost nothing. That leaves you you 2-4 weeks left . March is usually not a great snow month, it can produce but hasn’t done much the last few years with the exception of the Pizza Oven March of 2012 (highs in the 90s!!), March in St. Louis has become an endless string of gray drizzly days in the upper 50s-low 60's. The last BIG March snow I can remember in the metro area was the Palm Sunday storm ten years ago.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 1, 2023 12:08:48 GMT -6
Going to get alittle cold in Maine 468 thickness just north of the border
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2023 14:09:57 GMT -6
I haven't been keeping tabs, but I'd say that's a chunk of that Siberian airmass that was close to -80*F. Keep it up there!
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 1, 2023 15:13:40 GMT -6
Well the Board is slowing down. Guess that means not much is happening the next few weeks.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 1, 2023 15:27:18 GMT -6
"Pizza oven march" -sounds like a charity fundraising marathon run.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 1, 2023 17:00:47 GMT -6
I agree with Snow and Brtn definitely not much of a winter, we’re at that point now where the potential days are limited, so the next two weeks are almost nothing. That leaves you you 2-4 weeks left . March is usually not a great snow month, it can produce but hasn’t done much the last few years with the exception of the Pizza Oven March of 2012 (highs in the 90s!!), March in St. Louis has become an endless string of gray drizzly days in the upper 50s-low 60's. The last BIG March snow I can remember in the metro area was the Palm Sunday storm ten years ago. Yep March 24, 2013 I had 14" of wet snow in Northern Wildwood! What an experience!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 1, 2023 17:04:20 GMT -6
I remember this storm well ….. Freeburg 15 miles up the road had 5 inches and we got absolutely nothing in Marissa lol
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Post by weatherj on Feb 1, 2023 17:13:26 GMT -6
I remember this storm well ….. Freeburg 15 miles up the road had 5 inches and we got absolutely nothing in Marissa lol Did it stay rain in Marissa? We even got 6 inches of snow over here after the switch from rain. I do remember that storm did have a fairly dramatic straight N/S gradient though.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 1, 2023 17:17:33 GMT -6
We've basically had a week's worth of winter this season..."not great" Perhaps I should change my profile pic on here again to channel my “Inner Mo.” Last time I did that we ended up with a 3 week mini ice age lol. I think folks need to remember that we’ve had some impressive winter weather the last few years. That front end foot plus that fell in I think 2017? The huge snow with temps in the single digits all day back in 2021, the November snows, etc. We have had some exceptional events in very recent memory. Though MBY has seen some great winters in the last decade, we have also struggled to break double digits the last few years. This year has been…the worst so far. Plenty of time left, even to build a pack and maintain it. The waning La Niña should start to allow other factors more control of our sensible weather.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2023 18:13:28 GMT -6
If the La Nina keeps waning, I could see this being a backloaded winter. There has been some warming into the stratosphere over the pole recently signalling a weaker vortex, but it looks like the major SSW did fail to develop so far. This will still likely be reflected towards mid-late February after the current stretching event, but probably not on the scale of a full on major SSW. Hopefully that translates into a more favorable pattern down the road.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 1, 2023 18:13:38 GMT -6
I remember this storm well ….. Freeburg 15 miles up the road had 5 inches and we got absolutely nothing in Marissa lol Did it stay rain in Marissa? We even got 6 inches of snow over here after the switch from rain. I do remember that storm did have a fairly dramatic straight N/S gradient though. I believe so …. Sadly we have had this happen a few times …. The facts get muddy after awhile lol At least tonight’s GFS looks better
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 1, 2023 19:17:20 GMT -6
If the La Nina keeps waning, I could see this being a backloaded winter. There has been some warming into the stratosphere over the pole recently signalling a weaker vortex, but it looks like the major SSW did fail to develop so far. This will still likely be reflected towards mid-late February after the current stretching event, but probably not on the scale of a full on major SSW. Hopefully that translates into a more favorable pattern down the road. A certain weather source starting with Accu seems to agree, thinking Spring won't 'fully' talk off till April and even then around Easter time. March looks potentially wild and even February seems to be cooling it's jets after the 10th. Looks like the warm spell is getting shorter as time goes along. Time will tell.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 1, 2023 19:22:00 GMT -6
In fact if La Nina continues to die off, this Spring forecast could actually be a decent one in terms of accuracy. Most sources are going with a cold March into first half of April, then a quick but seasonal warm up to a late Spring pattern in May with more storms then previous couple of years and overall wetter. Summer might not be half bad either, but getting way ahead of ourselves!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2023 19:37:05 GMT -6
I just hope we don't get the dreaded late freeze again...the morel seasons have been pretty bad for me the last 10+ years except for 2014 and 2019. In large part, due to late cold snaps.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 1, 2023 19:44:43 GMT -6
GFS and GEM still have a flavor of something around 10-12 February. I'll take anything at this point.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2023 20:31:54 GMT -6
So. much. difference between the GFS and the EC around the 12th of February. So much. Tossing the GFS out. It also looks way too wintry beyond V Day compared to the setup EC has, and for the current pattern.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2023 20:33:05 GMT -6
I just hope we don't get the dreaded late freeze again...the morel seasons have been pretty bad for me the last 10+ years except for 2014 and 2019. In large part, due to late cold snaps. My Birch has budded. I had planned on pruning it. Ugh.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2023 20:34:26 GMT -6
In fact if La Nina continues to die off, this Spring forecast could actually be a decent one in terms of accuracy. Most sources are going with a cold March into first half of April, then a quick but seasonal warm up to a late Spring pattern in May with more storms then previous couple of years and overall wetter. Summer might not be half bad either, but getting way ahead of ourselves! So, you like cool rainy Springs; and didn't you forecast a quick February warmup? I'm a little confused.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2023 1:43:17 GMT -6
Dang clouds!!! I want to see the darn Comet!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2023 1:44:01 GMT -6
I just hope we don't get the dreaded late freeze again...the morel seasons have been pretty bad for me the last 10+ years except for 2014 and 2019. In large part, due to late cold snaps. Ya i hate that.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 2, 2023 7:56:24 GMT -6
So. much. difference between the GFS and the EC around the 12th of February. So much. Tossing the GFS out. It also looks way too wintry beyond V Day compared to the setup EC has, and for the current pattern. GFS had the support of GEM, at least last night it did. We shall see. I’m not completely sold on a torch pattern entrenching itself like January.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 2, 2023 8:03:02 GMT -6
In fact if La Nina continues to die off, this Spring forecast could actually be a decent one in terms of accuracy. Most sources are going with a cold March into first half of April, then a quick but seasonal warm up to a late Spring pattern in May with more storms then previous couple of years and overall wetter. Summer might not be half bad either, but getting way ahead of ourselves! Anything beyond 3 days is “getting ahead of ourselves”……….
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 2, 2023 8:03:35 GMT -6
I just hope we don't get the dreaded late freeze again...the morel seasons have been pretty bad for me the last 10+ years except for 2014 and 2019. In large part, due to late cold snaps. My Birch has budded. I had planned on pruning it. Ugh. So prune it…….it won’t harm it whatsoever
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 2, 2023 9:06:36 GMT -6
Six more weeks of winter in PA, here in MO - gotta be a early spring!
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2023 9:12:37 GMT -6
I remember this storm well ….. Freeburg 15 miles up the road had 5 inches and we got absolutely nothing in Marissa lol Funny hearing people talk about this mythical "double digit" snowfall, isn't it? I can't recall one that was measurable. My memory isn't great, but it's been a long, long time.
We may have had it with one of the "blizzards", but those storms were so windy that half the yard was scoured down to the grass, and drifts piled 3' high other places.
Double-digit snowfalls. Sorcery...Witchcraft.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 2, 2023 9:36:55 GMT -6
My Birch has budded. I had planned on pruning it. Ugh. So prune it…….it won’t harm it whatsoever The tree service i hired said its too late after seeing it. They suggested scheduling in january, so i did that, but now they said with the winters like they are, maybe i should try again rt after the leaves fall. Its a well kbown service, so i have no reason to doubt them.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 2, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6
Trust me 30+ years of experience as well here……it won’t hurt it. Here’s an example…….power line companies tree pruning gets performed 12 months out of the year and they do not get harmed. Also what happens if a storm comes through and rips the top out…..it still survives. Maybe with that example not that pretty of a tree anymore but still survives.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2023 10:10:09 GMT -6
Trust me 30+ years of experience as well here……it won’t hurt it. Here’s an example…….power line companies tree pruning gets performed 12 months out of the year and they do not get harmed. Also what happens if a storm comes through and rips the top out…..it still survives. Maybe with that example not that pretty of a tree anymore but still survives. Very true. Speaking of "survivor trees," there is a pine tree not far from my house that was on the edge of the Feb. 2017 EF-4 that had at least 60% of it ripped off. It is thriving currently still. I'm glad the homeowners decided to keep it up...serves as a daily reminder of the storm and a nice metaphor of recovery and persistence.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 2, 2023 10:25:51 GMT -6
Ok thx. Logic makes sense. I guess some tree services just dont want to chance it.
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