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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2023 10:52:22 GMT -6
Lots of geese flying north on radar I even spotted a couple flocks when taking the dog for a walk Prime time snow goose migration...they love to move north on these sunny days with a west or south wind. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 18, 2023 18:38:39 GMT -6
GFS shows a very active period next 2 weeks with a few rounds of severe storms possible as we head into March. Signs of an active season early on, but losing steam into April and May when the drier pattern establishes itself. So March still looking quite warm to very warm at times, but unlike 2012 it looking more stormier and more active with drier pattern setting up mid Spring into Summer. Still no hard signs of any major cold snap, certainly south of I-80.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 19, 2023 8:47:40 GMT -6
so far our cold and snowy February is 5 degrees above normal, with a trace of snow. What a winter
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 19, 2023 8:57:05 GMT -6
so far our cold and snowy February is 5 degrees above normal, with a trace of snow. What a winter I keep thinking this year will be different……. And it’s just more of the same |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 19, 2023 11:03:15 GMT -6
Meanwhile in Minnesota
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 19, 2023 11:14:27 GMT -6
Remarkable consistency...except for the ~600mi northward shift
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 19, 2023 13:23:00 GMT -6
The question I have is will this winter be warmer than the winter of 2011 and 2012?
I dont remember strong cold snaps that tame the averages a bit like we had this winter, but I also feel like in between the cold snaps we have had many warmer days this winter than 2011 and 2012.
Just going to be interested to see where we come out at in terms of warmest winter seasons
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 19, 2023 14:36:02 GMT -6
In other unhappy news...are we watching Berube's last game?
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 19, 2023 14:47:49 GMT -6
Remarkable consistency...except for the ~600mi northward shift This winter has proven that consistency doesn’t always spell correctness. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 19, 2023 16:29:25 GMT -6
Boy Last full week of February already. Pretty soon it will be time to pullout those Christmas decorations again.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 19, 2023 17:39:28 GMT -6
I cant give winter up until late this year.
With the snow pack they are going to build to our north make me slightly interested between the 5th and 15th of March for maybe getting something here.
Otherwise if that does not materialize, lets close the books.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 19, 2023 18:23:42 GMT -6
Just a blah winter.
Started good with the surprise snow. Then I was in Chicago the weekend before Thanksgiving and it was cold and mood flakes all weekend. After that it has been gross. No great warmth or winter weather either
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 19, 2023 18:32:29 GMT -6
We definitely have gotten use to this as this winter all of us behaved pretty well without complaining considering lol.
All fairness do you think this is possibly the worst winter we ever have had in terms of just mehness, or would you all rather have 2012 with record heat all winter, just curious.
To me this was still a winter just not what we wanted, but 2012 i dont even call that a winter with 13 being the coldest that winter was at its lowest low.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 19, 2023 19:35:28 GMT -6
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 19, 2023 21:26:10 GMT -6
In other unhappy news...are we watching Berube's last game? Only if he decides to resign. Nobody expects the team to win much for awhile since we've now started the retool/rebuild process. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 19, 2023 22:26:03 GMT -6
had a fb memory pop up...this time in 2017, my car thermometer registered 80 (I think the actual temp was probably in the 70s), and I was out enjoying a bonfire outside. That was 2017. I think we've seen a reoccurance of winter coming in with early snows, only to be tamed out, with very little winter in February and beyond. It seems that we can't get any late season patterns conducive to snow in recent years. I have no reason to think this winter will be any different. We have approached the time of year where time of day on snowfall has a big effect on our accumulation potential, especially with the mild antecedent conditions. I personally think we are done as far as snow. Yes, I see some "close calls", or bullet dodges so to speak in the gfs long range. But that se ridge doesn't seem to be going anywhere. IMO, we statistically don't do well with La Ninas but what made me think this winter would be different was that the past part 3 La Ninas have been colder for us, but there really wasn't a lot of historical data for a reliable expectation, I guess. I've come to know that we are in a long term snow drought. BTW, based on what analysis I've done in the past, El Ninos are not snow friendly to us either, but we've had some good years with El Nino. Our best years, I submit, are during waning El Ninos. That's statistically speaking of course. With the increase in solar activity, I'm not sure how long we will have to wait until we get a good decent cold winter with plenty of snow opportunities. My biggest concern is what this summer will be like. Ideally, we've seen these persistent ridges retrogade seasonally so to speak, but that would mean more hot dry weather over the plains and the southwest - which I now recognize is our biggest foe the following winter. We are way overdue for an overperforming winter. I think we are overdue for a winter with multiple, longer lasting cold waves. We used to be able to count on a 2 week pattern change. Now it's 1 to 2 weeks of cold weather (sometimes with some embedded intense cold), followed by a mostly mild regime. The strong pacific influence has also influenced the placement of seasonal tornado breakouts. I'm somewhat thankful that I haven't needed the a/c yet. But watching my perennials starting to bud this week and hearing the robins...in the middle of February. I guess it's not too far off the charts. My dad would plant lettuce on Valentines Day, and seeing my fb friends from southeastern missouri - that's definitely a thing even these days. All I know is, growing up in southeastern missouri, we could count on snow totalling around 14 inches, and when I moved to St. Louis in the mid 1980s, we could count on close to 20 inches of snow - numerous small events, and 2 warning events. Maybe climatologically speaking we really were still coming out of the ice age, and this is our normal. I personally hoped we were coming out of a long term warming trend associated with the modern maxima and that we would return to the winters I knew in the 60s, 70s and 80s. But I'm reminded of the 50s snow drought and read about the awful heat waves of the 50s. It's weather, and we have to remind ourselves that weather is not linear with climate. Some of us even suspected that this winter would be a stinker. Yeah, I really think we are done this winter for snow. Forecasters say generically don't count out potential until mid April. We'll get freezes from time to time. I always shake my head walking through Lowes and places like that every year, when they try to sell their snow blowers. Even giving a child a sled for Christmas is not a "safe" gift here anymore. It's remarkable how the weather changes over time have affected my thinking.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 20, 2023 6:38:36 GMT -6
had a fb memory pop up...this time in 2017, my car thermometer registered 80 (I think the actual temp was probably in the 70s), and I was out enjoying a bonfire outside. That was 2017. I think we've seen a reoccurance of winter coming in with early snows, only to be tamed out, with very little winter in February and beyond. It seems that we can't get any late season patterns conducive to snow in recent years. I have no reason to think this winter will be any different. We have approached the time of year where time of day on snowfall has a big effect on our accumulation potential, especially with the mild antecedent conditions. I personally think we are done as far as snow. Yes, I see some "close calls", or bullet dodges so to speak in the gfs long range. But that se ridge doesn't seem to be going anywhere. IMO, we statistically don't do well with La Ninas but what made me think this winter would be different was that the past part 3 La Ninas have been colder for us, but there really wasn't a lot of historical data for a reliable expectation, I guess. I've come to know that we are in a long term snow drought. BTW, based on what analysis I've done in the past, El Ninos are not snow friendly to us either, but we've had some good years with El Nino. Our best years, I submit, are during waning El Ninos. That's statistically speaking of course. With the increase in solar activity, I'm not sure how long we will have to wait until we get a good decent cold winter with plenty of snow opportunities. My biggest concern is what this summer will be like. Ideally, we've seen these persistent ridges retrogade seasonally so to speak, but that would mean more hot dry weather over the plains and the southwest - which I now recognize is our biggest foe the following winter. We are way overdue for an overperforming winter. I think we are overdue for a winter with multiple, longer lasting cold waves. We used to be able to count on a 2 week pattern change. Now it's 1 to 2 weeks of cold weather (sometimes with some embedded intense cold), followed by a mostly mild regime. The strong pacific influence has also influenced the placement of seasonal tornado breakouts. I'm somewhat thankful that I haven't needed the a/c yet. But watching my perennials starting to bud this week and hearing the robins...in the middle of February. I guess it's not too far off the charts. My dad would plant lettuce on Valentines Day, and seeing my fb friends from southeastern missouri - that's definitely a thing even these days. All I know is, growing up in southeastern missouri, we could count on snow totalling around 14 inches, and when I moved to St. Louis in the mid 1980s, we could count on close to 20 inches of snow - numerous small events, and 2 warning events. Maybe climatologically speaking we really were still coming out of the ice age, and this is our normal. I personally hoped we were coming out of a long term warming trend associated with the modern maxima and that we would return to the winters I knew in the 60s, 70s and 80s. But I'm reminded of the 50s snow drought and read about the awful heat waves of the 50s. It's weather, and we have to remind ourselves that weather is not linear with climate. Some of us even suspected that this winter would be a stinker. Yeah, I really think we are done this winter for snow. Forecasters say generically don't count out potential until mid April. We'll get freezes from time to time. I always shake my head walking through Lowes and places like that every year, when they try to sell their snow blowers. Even giving a child a sled for Christmas is not a "safe" gift here anymore. It's remarkable how the weather changes over time have affected my thinking. Thereve been some patterns and storms even this year that had fairly decent model agreement just go poof. But, I will say this, the Euro weeklies have been pretty good IIRC. They haven’t been showing what we want, but they’ve been pretty accurate. The last half of February, given the predominant pattern for the winter, one could bet with a fair amount of confidence that winter is over without even looking at a model. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2023 10:03:36 GMT -6
Some potential for a catastrophic ice storm across southern Wisconsin and Michigan.
Crazy ice amounts showing up on the gfs. I generally look for temps 30 or below for significant icing so it’ll be close.
What a storm system overall though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 20, 2023 10:18:05 GMT -6
There is just no hope for any cold around here, even in the extended. EPS has the same overall look for the first week of March as the current setup. All the cold dumps out west as we blowtorch We might be looking at a very early bloom  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2023 10:24:27 GMT -6
Have to think there will be at least a conditional threat for some strong storms on Wednesday. Models show the warm front lifting through during the morning with 60*+ Tds working in and a strong impulse moving in during peak heating. Lapse rates are marginal but if we get some surface heating going there should be enough instability for storm development with plenty of shear.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2023 10:28:06 GMT -6
There is just no hope for any cold around here, even in the extended. EPS has the same overall look for the first week of March as the current setup. All the cold dumps out west as we blowtorch We might be looking at a very early bloom The second SSW event is happening right around then so would expect a pattern change around March 10th. So probably a couple week period in mid March where a heavy wet snow is possible. Another Palm Sunday event is fine by me. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2023 10:30:29 GMT -6
I'm starting to get bad late freeze vibes...trees are already budding out. With the amplitude of the pattern, if that deep troffing finally progresses eastward later in March it could be damaging by that point. Hopefully it doesn't wait until late March or early April when everything is in full swing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 20, 2023 10:32:06 GMT -6
Have to think there will be at least a conditional threat for some strong storms on Wednesday. Models show the warm front lifting through during the morning with 60*+ Tds working in and a strong impulse moving in during peak heating. Lapse rates are marginal but if we get some surface heating going there should be enough instability for storm development with plenty of shear. CSU-MLP agrees
SPC, not so much
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2023 10:39:52 GMT -6
The GEFS looks substantially colder than the EC for the first week of March...the -NAO may help to coax some cold air further S and E but that ridge off the Aleutians is pretty rock solid for the next 15 days on the models so that's not favorable for us as it favors a -PNA. Would expect the pattern to be fairly active with that setup though...we should get some beneficial rainfall at least.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2023 12:47:33 GMT -6
12z euro has a 969mb low in Iowa in a week. That would have to be quite unusual
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 20, 2023 14:11:06 GMT -6
12z euro has a 969mb low in Iowa in a week. That would have to be quite unusual A sub 970 low in Iowa in February without any snow associated it lol  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 20, 2023 16:16:13 GMT -6
Some potential for a catastrophic ice storm across southern Wisconsin and Michigan. Crazy ice amounts showing up on the gfs. I generally look for temps 30 or below for significant icing so it’ll be close. What a storm system overall though. Talked with my brother in south central MN. They're predicting record breaking snow (18-22" or more) along with 45 mph winds. He said there's no place to go with any additional snow and the existing snow banks are frozen solid, like concrete. Hitting those with plows damages/breaks equipment. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2023 16:23:33 GMT -6
Some potential for a catastrophic ice storm across southern Wisconsin and Michigan. Crazy ice amounts showing up on the gfs. I generally look for temps 30 or below for significant icing so it’ll be close. What a storm system overall though. Talked with my brother in south central MN. They're predicting record breaking snow (18-22" or more) along with 45 mph winds. He said there's no place to go with any additional snow and the existing snow banks are frozen solid, like concrete. Hitting those with plows damages/breaks equipment. This is what concerns me about the flooding potential this spring...at least on the MS. I looked at the EC earlier and didn't think it looked like an epic snowstorm up there...it's a long duration event with two distinct waves but the moisture supply seems somewhat limited/cut off behind the first wave. I was thinking more of a 6-10" storm vs. 18-24" which seems like hype to me. Of course, it's Minnesota so I'm sure the hype amounts will verify, lol. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 20, 2023 17:35:32 GMT -6
I would have to say with the winds and the gusts they are expecting in southern MN, particularly in Hennepin County (western Minneapolis), the broken dendrites should keep accumulations in check some. Nonetheless, 10 to 18 inches of snow total over the long duration event for them, IMO, would be my first guess. I'm sure my colleagues are excited. That's why they live in MN.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2023 18:46:57 GMT -6
There has been so little to post about for me lately... so I've let you guys drive the show. I'll just drop these two Ensemble snowfall charts for MSP and wish you all a good night! Maybe you can still get a flight up there for the show! Yes, we need a new threat and maybe later this week I'll have time to crank one out. And yes, we will still be going behind a privacy door at some point in the future, but that will take a while since I have a mountain of requests for membership I need to plow through. So all of this will take time...a LOT of time. THESE ARE FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND NOT FOR ST. LOUIS....  |
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