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Post by mosue56 on Feb 25, 2023 15:53:33 GMT -6
Why is everyone getting so excited? It’s still several days! Things change this time of year!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 16:12:38 GMT -6
No one’s going to mention the GFS huh
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 25, 2023 16:13:10 GMT -6
another model run, another rain to blizzard
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 16:15:36 GMT -6
Pretty cool run there, wow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 16:29:38 GMT -6
Why is everyone getting so excited? It’s still several days! Things change this time of year! There is about 4 weeks left where a major winter storm can happen. Might as well embrace any storm with potential while we can. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 25, 2023 16:43:30 GMT -6
4 weeks where the sun rising higher won’t matter? Oh ok! Three more Sundays til we spring forward! It better hurry! The bulbs are waking up!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2023 16:52:37 GMT -6
Right over downtown Edit: Guess Chris deleted it  I deleted because I found it quickly lol. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 16:57:24 GMT -6
While the operational 18z gfs was further northwest, the 18z gfs ensembles are actually east of 12z.
A tangled web
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 17:11:53 GMT -6
Wow, GFS with the double-barrel sub-990mb cyclone crossing MEM and tracking up the ORV...if it pulls this stunt again I'm writing my congressman.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 17:31:17 GMT -6
At the risk of getting way the heck too far ahead of things, the 12z EPS shows wave after wave of overrunning precip the following week with building pressures across the N tier. March may be coming in like a lion!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 17:40:30 GMT -6
In other news, models are showing one of the jankiest setups for snow in NYC I think I've never seen Mon PM/Tues...will they get screwed or finally break their snow drought? I'm thinking they get hosed by the onshore flow/warm layer. Last check, they had only recorded 0.4" of snowfall for the entire season.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 25, 2023 19:22:37 GMT -6
In other news, models are showing one of the jankiest setups for snow in NYC I think I've never seen Mon PM/Tues...will they get screwed or finally break their snow drought? I'm thinking they get hosed by the onshore flow/warm layer. Last check, they had only recorded 0.4" of snowfall for the entire season. Just a tick or two below us. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 25, 2023 21:10:05 GMT -6
We can only dream of doing such a thing here in STL.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 21:47:21 GMT -6
00z Icon gets the snow into the southern metro.
Definitely a big improvement from 12z, with room for more adjustment north.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 22:08:19 GMT -6
977mb Memphis low on the 00z gfs 😂
Freaking crazy unheard of run right there
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Post by amstilost on Feb 25, 2023 22:12:15 GMT -6
977mb Memphis low on the 00z gfs 😂 Freaking crazy unheard of run right there Oh my, that is a beaut. Edit: I just HAD to look at the 10/1 snow output and was quite disappointed to see 3" IMBY. WTH |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 22:16:10 GMT -6
Very , very borderline temps and upper air profiles.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 22:16:11 GMT -6
00z ggem has joined the party!
Big jump north!
Now things are getting interesting
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Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 22:17:36 GMT -6
Gem joins party - huge improvement, actually looks better slightly colder than GFS
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 22:19:37 GMT -6
977mb Memphis low on the 00z gfs 😂 Freaking crazy unheard of run right there Oh my, that is a beaut. Edit: I just HAD to look at the 10/1 snow output and was quite disappointed to see 3" IMBY. WTH It is a little splotchy with the deformation zone, but you see the potential with the 12 inch numbers in southern Missouri and Illinois. Conceptually, the gfs run is as close to a true blizzard as the metro will ever come. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 22:25:42 GMT -6
Gem shows a nice 6-12”+ band through the metro heaviest south , lightest north
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 22:46:04 GMT -6
984 Memphis-ish low on the 00z Ukmet.
It’s on now
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Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 22:46:30 GMT -6
Ukmet joins the party, i44 mauler
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 22:50:09 GMT -6
00z gfs ensemble mean is basically perfect.
What a night of model runs.
Hell, the Ukmet has a 12-18 inch band of snow in the metro lol.
This is ridiculous
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 25, 2023 22:54:41 GMT -6
The UKMET lays down one hell of a deformation zone.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 25, 2023 22:57:39 GMT -6
Yeah UKMET is nuts. That is some REALLY heavy snowfall for several hours.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 23:00:06 GMT -6
The lack of low level cold air is one red flag I’m seeing with this
Even with a powerful cyclone, that could really hamper totals
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Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 23:04:29 GMT -6
Yea, it’s not going to be really hard to beat our seasonal best snow of 1.7” 😂. If it does happen will be a low ratio , monster wet flake, heavy wet snow, with borderline temps. The one positive is it has a cold source above and behind the low to draw from into.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 23:06:33 GMT -6
Yes the GEFS mean is up to 4-6” across the area. I’m sure we will see the Euro go towards the northern camp tonight or tomorrow
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 25, 2023 23:07:33 GMT -6
If only it was 2 days away and not 5.
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