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Post by bdgwx on Feb 25, 2023 23:09:24 GMT -6
Another red flag is the wild gyrations in solutions being modeled. Sure, we expect that at D5+ lead times, but they aren't normally accompanied with intense cyclones like this. There could be surprises lurking around the corner of this one with some not so favorable for snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 23:11:36 GMT -6
Yes the GEFS mean is up to 4-6” across the area. I’m sure we will see the Euro go towards the northern camp tonight or tomorrow 4-6" at 10:1 ratio
The GEFS positive snow depth change mean is 2-3" across the area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 23:15:06 GMT -6
Yes the GEFS mean is up to 4-6” across the area. I’m sure we will see the Euro go towards the northern camp tonight or tomorrow 4-6" at 10:1 ratio
The GEFS positive snow depth change mean is 2-3" across the area
There are also individual members showing 2 feet. This one isn’t suited well for means given the distribution. Interquartile range probably better expresses the uncertainty and captures the upside potential. I see Pivotal has a 10th and 90th option. It checks in at 0 inches and 9 inches respectively. That captures the huge spread in outcomes. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 23:22:48 GMT -6
4-6" at 10:1 ratio
The GEFS positive snow depth change mean is 2-3" across the area
There are also individual members showing 2 feet. This one isn’t suited well for means given the distribution. Interquartile range probably better expresses the uncertainty and captures the upside potential. I see Pivotal has a 10th and 90th option. It checks in at 0 inches and 9 inches respectively. That captures the huge spread in outcomes. Agreed. I'm big on probabilities at this range rather than means.
The chance of 3" or more on the GEFS using positive snow depth change is 30% in the metro
Not great for boom potential, but I think that's more of a byproduct of the uncertainty with this system.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2023 0:35:07 GMT -6
Big move north on the 00z euro with snow accumulations reaching the southern metro this run.
Euro is still on the southern end of guidance, but that shift was significant. Hopefully, the EPS is even further northwest.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2023 5:44:11 GMT -6
6z gfs shows a true blizzard for STL and the northern counties.
Extremely heavy, wet snow and 50+ mph wind gusts.
The 00z EPS was much more subdued and further southeast.
The 6z Icon has flipped back to suppressed.
Model battle brewing.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 26, 2023 7:34:08 GMT -6
meh
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 26, 2023 7:41:39 GMT -6
Hey, even Union manages to squeak out a couple feet on that run.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 26, 2023 7:55:46 GMT -6
Interesting that a slight majority of the GEFS members are on the north or western side of the envelope.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 8:59:07 GMT -6
06z GFS goes full HAM!
Really trying to keep in mind that it's shown this outcome before and failed miserably, lol
Please make it happen...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 9:08:18 GMT -6
Starting to see a rough consensus developing that the phasing/neg tilt will happen soon enough for a favorable track of the 500mb low and other key GYB features next week. The GEM and EC have jumped aboard the more N/NW train of solutions last night, so that's giving a lot more credence to the GFS. The big question is whether the cold will become entrenched enough for snow. A storm of the magnitude that most models are showing should be able to pull winds in and drag the cold towards the center along with strong dynamical cooling. This looks like a heavy, wet snow maker to me.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 9:16:30 GMT -6
Last night's UKMET looks phenomenal with a 985mb SLP passing the benchmark and a band of heavy snow setting up right through the region.
This potential is starting to gain a lot of traction...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2023 9:31:50 GMT -6
12z Icon is a monster snow for the metro.
Good start to the morning runs.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 26, 2023 9:38:26 GMT -6
Don’t get sucked in.
Don’t get sucked in.
Dammit.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2023 9:41:11 GMT -6
Don’t get sucked in. Don’t get sucked in. Dammit. Embrace it. Might be our last chance at disappointment for 9 months. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 26, 2023 9:48:48 GMT -6
Personally, I think we should lock in the 06z GEFS control run Good god lol  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 26, 2023 10:00:31 GMT -6
no cold air is a mainstay it seems. We were assured it wouldn't be a problem with the system in January, but it was, big time. These systems needing dynamical cooling are always overdone around here. I just don't know
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2023 10:04:13 GMT -6
12z gfs is actually a hair too far north.
Ridiculous 973mb low
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Post by landscaper on Feb 26, 2023 10:05:14 GMT -6
GFS is going to be too amped up and warm 977 low just south of us , ton of rain hopefully some backside snow
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 26, 2023 10:06:33 GMT -6
yeah i would be much more confident in predicting 2-4 inches of rain than even a dusting of snow
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Post by landscaper on Feb 26, 2023 10:07:02 GMT -6
Probably more than a hair like 150-200 miles it has the 975 low on top of St. Louis , never a good sign, it’s the furthest north and most amplified so hopefully it’s overdone
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 26, 2023 10:09:26 GMT -6
The GFS better not be pulling our leg with this system because this is gorgeous  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 26, 2023 10:10:09 GMT -6
Batten down the hatches. A wild ride is upon us with high winds overnight into the early morning hours along with rain and storms, although at this point the potential for storms looks a bit subdued courtesy of timing. Beyond that, nice week shaping up with temperatures in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, falling back just a bit on Thursday.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 26, 2023 10:11:34 GMT -6
Gem on Black and white charts is more south than gfs, looks to bring the snow into the metro and south, heavier I44 and south
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 26, 2023 10:13:42 GMT -6
back into beaker trolling mode
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:14:26 GMT -6
Batten down the hatches. A wild ride is upon us with high winds overnight into the early morning hours along with rain and storms, although at this point the potential for storms looks a bit subdued courtesy of timing. Beyond that, nice week shaping up with temperatures in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, falling back just a bit on Thursday. ...and? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 26, 2023 10:16:04 GMT -6
back into beaker trolling mode Not getting that comment. Tonight looks to bring us some winds, and there is a wind advisory out. Then temperatures through mid week look to be in the 60s. Not sure what you mean. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:16:39 GMT -6
Cutting too far north is the other concern...the blocking ridge over the top isn't real strong so a rapidly deepening low would sneak further N/W than models depict. God knows these strong cyclones love to dump on COU to UIN. But luckily there's still plenty of guidance on the weaker/SE side of the envelope.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:17:53 GMT -6
99 said we're getting a dusting maybe, yay!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 26, 2023 10:20:09 GMT -6
uh, yeah, that's what i said, or not lol
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