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Post by landscaper on Mar 1, 2023 22:23:47 GMT -6
03 RAP has a heavy band just north and west of the metro, gets 1-2” into St Charles county , much heavier 30-50 miles north and west of the area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 6:14:25 GMT -6
03 RAP has a heavy band just north and west of the metro, gets 1-2” into St Charles county , much heavier 30-50 miles north and west of the area 9z rap clobbers St. Charles. |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 2, 2023 6:21:32 GMT -6
Well written FD for ILX this morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2023 7:48:41 GMT -6
no one's going to mention the 6z euro which has no snow until into IL, or the 12z hrrr which doesnt have a flake around here?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 7:55:15 GMT -6
no one's going to mention the 6z euro which has no snow until into IL, or the 12z hrrr which doesnt have a flake around here? No, those are depressing. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 7:58:17 GMT -6
RAP only goes out to 18hrs on Accu but it's several degrees cooler at h85 by midnight along/N of I-70 with some pockets of 0* temps already developing under the strong lift.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 7:58:45 GMT -6
What is most frustrating is that the 850mb low track is only like 30 miles north of the benchmark on the 6Z Euro. I still think a few sloppy flakes will be seen, but yeah, it looks like the odds of significant accumulations is low.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2023 8:01:31 GMT -6
no one's going to mention the 6z euro which has no snow until into IL, or the 12z hrrr which doesnt have a flake around here? No, those are depressing. and much more realistic |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 8:08:53 GMT -6
No, those are depressing. and much more realistic I’ll always have the 12z nam and it’s 975mb low over STL giving me a concrete blizzard. The models have handled this storm horribly. The euro has been both the most suppressed and most amped at one point. It bounces around virtually run to run. The ggem has probably been the most consistent, but even it has been a little squirrely. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2023 8:11:15 GMT -6
The NAM keeps the pressure record alive with a 975mb low right over STL  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 8:11:40 GMT -6
The GEM has been pretty locked in for days...it has not budged much at all. Considering the low-latitude that this shortwave is ejecting at, I'd say it's further SE synoptic track holds plenty of weight. Some of these models like the NAM and HRRR look way too NW to me.
Model performance with this system has been abysmal overall and still is within hours of the event unfolding.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2023 8:14:07 GMT -6
maybe a few flakes in union, nada in stl really on the NAMS
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 8:14:55 GMT -6
I need the 12z nam to happen for my 12-18 inch max band prediction to verify 😂
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 8:16:21 GMT -6
I need the 12z nam to happen for my 12-18 inch max band prediction to verify 😂 Cut those amounts in half and I'd say your sitting pretty good. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 8:19:37 GMT -6
I need the 12z nam to happen for my 12-18 inch max band prediction to verify 😂 Cut those amounts in half and I'd say your sitting pretty good. 12z nam verbatim is colder so it actually has that snow depth materialize up by me. Obviously, it will be wrong, but fun to look at. I agree, with temps trending a couple degrees warmer the compaction will make it hard to get past 8ish inches wherever the max band sets up. It is a shame because with any cold air this would be a top 5 historical winter storm for the region. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 8:36:25 GMT -6
I was about to ask how much snow would there be if it fell as snow...25-30" would have been cool.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 8:36:39 GMT -6
RDPS sends the 850mb low through the strike zone and yet there is little to no accumulation. That is maddening. I have to hand it to Mother Nature. She is working on yet another way to screw St. Louis.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 8:38:18 GMT -6
The NAM keeps the pressure record alive with a 975mb low right over STL I'd at least like to see this go sub 980mb somewhere in the area. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 8:39:57 GMT -6
The NAM keeps the pressure record alive with a 975mb low right over STL I'd at least like to see this go sub 980mb somewhere in the area. WRF goes 972mb. I want sub 970mb |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 2, 2023 8:41:28 GMT -6
As the pressure goes lower, doesn't that mean higher winds? If that is the case, pass.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2023 8:42:10 GMT -6
RDPS sends the 850mb low through the strike zone and yet there is little to no accumulation. That is maddening. I have to hand it to Mother Nature. She is working on yet another way to screw St. Louis. if only it were january. it would still be all rain. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 8:44:58 GMT -6
12Z HiRes FV3 gets it down 977 mb around Popular Bluff, MO.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Mar 2, 2023 8:50:06 GMT -6
The way the past couple winters have gone, I'm not holding out hope for this one for the metro area. Too much evidence this close to the event is not looking good for us. Maybe north of a Columbia to Quincy line, but that doesn't affect most of us. Instead of trying to support the idea of accumulating snow, the headline will be the the heavy rain. Three inches of rain is more likely to verify than 3 inches of snow.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 2, 2023 9:03:28 GMT -6
The model differences are staggering, even with the surface low placement. There’s still a 100-200 mile difference among some.
Also, the thermal profiles still aren’t settled IMO, with some models showing a complete rain storm entirely and others rain to snow.
It is going to rain, no doubt, but bust potential with this storm is 5 out of 5, IMO. Considering my local NWS has busted on two storms already, I understand the reluctance.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 9:07:15 GMT -6
If it's forecast to be all rain, which it is IMBY via NWS...it will snow it's azz off.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 2, 2023 9:08:18 GMT -6
Also, the NBM would argue for a defo band setting up from around the northern counties up through Jerseyville then through Springfield, IL and bulls-eying Chicago proper.
It looks though to bring the SLP due north, then due east, then N-NE. Wonky at best, IMO
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 2, 2023 9:11:53 GMT -6
Also all models are depicting a stiff NE wind during the majority of storm. MOST of the time that spells a colder storm overall.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2023 9:23:05 GMT -6
Full dislosure, I haven't seen the latest model runs, but it seems like when the models started 'coming back' south and east with the storm there appeared to be a secondary low feature forming that helped with the further south/east outcome. Dr. RM has a short video clip of the HRRRv4 composite/precip type model radar initialized on 0z 3/2/23. That outcome would surely bust some of the forecasts out right now. Apparently I don't have access to the HRRRv4 to verify this or look at it closer. Does anyone here believe or see anything that would verify this model output? Seems intriguing at least.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 9:31:03 GMT -6
Also all models are depicting a stiff NE wind during the majority of storm. MOST of the time that spells a colder storm overall. Most models have definitely toned down the super strong TROWAL that was forecast in earlier runs, so the cold has a better chance of sloshing in as the storm passes. With a 55-60kt LLJ on the backside, it will be effecient in pulling in cooler air quickly from the N along with dynamical cooling. This is assuming the amped solutions like the hi-res NAMs and 12z HRRR are wrong |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 9:48:06 GMT -6
12z NAM has a ~115dm h85 low tracking directly over STL by noon tomorrow...no other model is anywhere close to that from what I've seen. It's easily 150mi NW and 10mb deeper than pretty much all other guidance.
TOSS
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