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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 9:55:30 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS begins occluding the low at hour 21-24. At hour 30 we have two closed surface lows. One is near Perryville, MO at 980mb while the other is southern Indiana at 977mb at the new triple point. If the occlusion is delayed by 3 hours it might be enough to get this sub 980mb somewhere in the St. Louis area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:00:50 GMT -6
00z GEFS/EPS lock step now with a ~982mb low tracking across far S IL and a favorable track of the 850mb low for backside snow.
Will it or won't it?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2023 10:05:22 GMT -6
Only problem with backside snow is surface temps are going to be in the upper 30s to low 40s Friday
Any meaningful snow chances in the metro are <1%
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 10:06:50 GMT -6
12Z GFS says that the Friday/12Z SGF balloon launch will log a near record low 850mb height. The current record is 126 DM.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:10:58 GMT -6
Only problem with backside snow is surface temps are going to be in the upper 30s to low 40s Friday Any meaningful snow chances in the metro are <1% That sounding Coz posted definitely showed a sizable warm layer near the surface. Models are pretty consistent showing the FZL dropping to 1-2kft AGL within the deformation, so it's a close call. I think areas just N and W of the Metro stand a much better chance of seeing a changeover like Landscaper mentioned yesterday. Also, the higher terrain of the N Ozarks. The warm front doesn't get into those areas, keeping low-level temps a bit cooler, along with the lack of UHI. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:14:23 GMT -6
12Z GFS says that the Friday/12Z SGF balloon launch will log a near record low 850mb height. The current record is 126 DM. NAM says let's smash that record by 80 meters, lol. Edit: That was the 00z run, the 12z is more like 60m...it's definitely trending a bit weaker/SE. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2023 10:22:57 GMT -6
I definitely think the weaker/further SE solution will end up verifying
Unfortunately that doesn’t change our sensible weather any
Just a wind driven cold rain no matter where the low tracks
I’m more looking forward to Monday with temps in the 70s
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:26:41 GMT -6
We'll see.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2023 10:50:28 GMT -6
lol, the ukie has the low deepening 11 mb in 6 hours tomorrow morning. If only there were any cold air around. Epic blizzard
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 11:13:24 GMT -6
974mb on the UKIE.
The strong ones always pull north at the end!
Let’s go sub 970
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 11:18:19 GMT -6
The deep convection near the center of this storm is giving the hi-res models fits figuring out where it tracks, IMO. I'm struggling to remember this much discrepancy within 12hrs of an event unfolding.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 11:27:04 GMT -6
The UKMET is a bomb plain and simple. It deepens the cyclone by 11mb from 985mb in the bootheel to 974mb in southern IL in only 6 hour! We're seeing the kinds of discrepancies the east coast is used to seeing with Nor'easters because of the intensity of the cyclone. Edit: I see 99 already mentioned the 11mb drop. Maybe I should actually read the forum before posting  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2023 11:50:50 GMT -6
Only problem with backside snow is surface temps are going to be in the upper 30s to low 40s Friday Any meaningful snow chances in the metro are <1% That sounding Coz posted definitely showed a sizable warm layer near the surface. Models are pretty consistent showing the FZL dropping to 1-2kft AGL within the deformation, so it's a close call. I think areas just N and W of the Metro stand a much better chance of seeing a changeover like Landscaper mentioned yesterday. Also, the higher terrain of the N Ozarks. The warm front doesn't get into those areas, keeping low-level temps a bit cooler, along with the lack of UHI. That's where I'm leaning. Sorry I haven't posted much lately. Work has me crazy busy. Doing my taxes, prepping for a super busy Air Force weekend. I need to start clearing my plate soon lol. I have too many irons in the fire. Oh... forgot teaching at SLU. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 12:07:42 GMT -6
The 12Z ECMWF 850mb low is damn near a bullseye for GYB and...wait for it...nothing except for maybe a few F-you flakes as Mother Nature throws up the middle finger on the way out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2023 12:13:32 GMT -6
That euro run is about as close as you can get to a major snowstorm without having one
Low bombing out near our wheelhouse but surface temps are stuck in the upper 30s
Maybe we should start a go fund me to raise STL a couple thousand feet
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 12:14:32 GMT -6
I will say that we may get the rare opportunity of seeing snow with near 40F temperatures if the Euro is right. At least we have that going for us.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2023 12:15:43 GMT -6
i mean this would be a 15-20 incher easily, with wind. Maybe a true blizzard. How sad, as has been the case over and over..no cold air. Vomitous
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2023 12:26:22 GMT -6
I am interested in seeing how this plays out. The Euro snow depth product says BRTN is going to get up to 2". It's going to have to be flat pouring grenades for that to happen. BRTN...if it plays out like what the Euro shows then we want videos.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 12:32:09 GMT -6
I will say that we may get the rare opportunity of seeing snow with near 40F temperatures if the Euro is right. At least we have that going for us. I've witnessed snow falling with temps in the low 40s once but it was showery precip with a cold core overhead and more graupel than true snow. I've got my camera ready for the cold rain, lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 12:48:31 GMT -6
I mean, come on!   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 12:53:19 GMT -6
Looks like our storm is starting to turn the corner near the western tip of Texas...looks like a buzzsaw on water vapor!
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Post by landscaper on Mar 2, 2023 12:55:34 GMT -6
It would be hilarious if this did kick over at some point and poured hamsters for a while !
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 2, 2023 12:58:08 GMT -6
NWS seems to be hedging their bets even here...
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1214 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
For Friday`s potential heavy wet snow, no changes were made to the
going Winter Storm Watch in effect for portions of the area. This
remains a forecast fraught with uncertainty due to reliance upon
dynamic cooling of a marginal boundary layer (plus high March sun
angle) and placement of what ultimately will be a narrow mesoscale
band where heavy snow and higher end impacts may occur.
Aside from the 12km NAM and 3km NAMnest, general trend has been
southeastward. However, when it comes to exact placement of
mesoscale bands resulting from the response to strong
frontogenetical circulations and low static stability, despite it
being close to the event, there are still large error bars
location wise as to where the heaviest banding and potential heavy
snow sets up, if it occurs in the CWA.
In fact, if we think of the NAMs as the top end of the spectrum,
there`s a plausible failure mode on the opposite end in which the
banding isn`t quite as intense and the dynamic cooling not enough
to overcome the marginal boundary layer conditions. This is a
scenario that has been consistently depicted by the global and
regional Canadian models for multiple model cycles in a row. All
of these competing factors and variance in possible solutions,
snow amounts, and impacts result in lower confidence despite the
"event" starting less than 24 hours from now. We`ll see if the
ECMWF suite rolling out around the top of the hour can help bring
some clarity.
Castro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 13:03:58 GMT -6
12z euro is cold by midweek next week.
Temps dropping into the low 20s at times.
Also, a storm to keep an eye on.
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 2, 2023 13:08:53 GMT -6
WSC, what's your lake temp.?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 13:16:45 GMT -6
WSC, what's your lake temp.? I moved by the “Leaning Tower of Niles” so haven’t been playing attention to it to be honest. Still only 5 miles from the lake so that wind off it can moderate temps for me anyway. Doesn’t look like it will matter with models holding the band down in Indiana outside of the nam and SREF. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 13:24:29 GMT -6
12z EPS has a mean low of 978mb.
There is a 969mb member in there.
It actually generates some snow for the metro.
Would love to see this thing get super intense and surprise some people
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 2, 2023 13:30:45 GMT -6
This will be an historic rainy deformation. Just a reminder for everyone to be sure to include your location when you report the changeover from moderate rain and 30mph gusts to heavy rain and 45mph gusts.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2023 13:42:47 GMT -6
“Hey Siri, show me an image of pain”  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2023 14:12:40 GMT -6
18z nam remains north lol.
I’m a very big nam fan at the moment
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