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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 4, 2023 11:42:23 GMT -6
The ensembles are better to look at, but the ensembles have shown a wintry pattern about 5 times in the 2 months in the 7+ day range, only to be nothing. Take everything with a huge grain of salt.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2023 11:58:28 GMT -6
Yeah...before the blocking developed.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 4, 2023 14:05:14 GMT -6
EPS trended north with the stuff next week
It has the low passing right over STL and very little mean snowfall
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 4, 2023 14:09:20 GMT -6
Im shocked.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 4, 2023 14:49:29 GMT -6
I think the euro ensembles are pretty cool.
One goes 959mb over Springfield, Illinois with 78mph gusts over the metro 😂
That same member has 18 inches of snow and 96mph gusts near Cedar Rapids.
Tells me the models might have some problems in the next couple days.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 4, 2023 15:09:18 GMT -6
Most of the modeling today have the Friday storm as rain , snow way north of us , after that they’re basically dry for a week. Colder northwest flow, looks like maybe a storm in the 12-15 day timeframe. Even, the CPCs 8-14 day outlook shows the cold below normal temperatures but precipitation also well below normal which is what the models are showing. That could change obviously, but both cold snaps this winter featured us getting almost nothing while areas south received a lot of frozen stuff.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 4, 2023 16:15:59 GMT -6
This could be a prolific snowmaker for the upper Midwest. NBM is showing a huge footprint of a foot plus Could cause some problems as we head into spring and river flooding season. A lot of those areas already have a foot on the ground  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 4, 2023 22:27:08 GMT -6
I mean lol at the models. Not a flake here but MSP could get another 2 or 3 feet. Same old stuff. Hilarious
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2023 8:27:50 GMT -6
It's becoming pretty clear that the ridge linkage that develops next week ahead of that ejecting storm is going to prevent any cold from getting into place and allow it to track too far N/NW. Once again, the pattern in the pacific is totally hosing our chance for winter storm potential despite the strongly -AO/NAO. Unless some secondary development occurs, it's going to be a rain to cold scenario with maybe some flurries behind the storm. It's definitely going to get colder behind that storm...but any significant snow chances look bleak right now.
I'm ready for spring at this point...this has been a very strange "winter" with a lot of mixed signals and model swings.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 5, 2023 9:26:26 GMT -6
Yes , that’s about right, gem and euro have nothing in their models. Euro looks warm at day 10, GFS keeps a storm chance alive in the 12-15 day range.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 5, 2023 9:54:01 GMT -6
Same old same old.. ensembles fail again looks like. It'll get a bit colder but winter precip is nada as has been the case all winter. It's been persistent, that's for sure lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2023 10:21:35 GMT -6
On the other hand, both the 12z gfs and ggem have snowstorms across the viewing area next weekend…
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 5, 2023 10:24:34 GMT -6
Yes they do, probably til later today or tomorrow
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Post by let it snow11 on Mar 5, 2023 10:25:58 GMT -6
I'm ready for Spring as well. This winter looked promising early on with the surprise November snow down here and the cold snap at Christmas, but much of it since has been ho-hum. Numbers wise, I can't complain too much about accumulation in my back yard, around a foot I think, but total days of usable snow-cover for the kids to play in has been much less than normal. Our 2 biggest snows in November and January melted quickly in the borderline temps.
I see plentiful daffodils now, and worked outside in a T shirt yesterday. Finished off the day with some outdoor grilled burgers and a beer. Bring on Spring.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2023 10:50:32 GMT -6
On the other hand, both the 12z gfs and ggem have snowstorms across the viewing area next weekend… Models must have heard me...there's the secondary development now...if you want to call it that. Models will be all over the board the next week with the blocking and contorted flow. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2023 12:35:47 GMT -6
The last couple runs of the euro have said “what cold?” and try to build a ridge behind the system next week. I hope it’s right honestly  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 5, 2023 12:51:16 GMT -6
Yeah I was about to say...arguably the 2 best models dont have snow and the euro doesn't even get close to being "cold". Good. Flush this turd of a winter.
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Post by REB on Mar 5, 2023 13:02:35 GMT -6
Trying to recover from a very bad cold/flu. Just mowed the first 1/3 of the yard. The rest will happen tomorrow. So much yard stuff and it's so early........UGH. I just wanted some snow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2023 13:14:19 GMT -6
Whatever the case is now, or in the near future, let's hope that persistent mean ridge that has plagued us all winter, lets up in the hot months. I don't mind a warm spring, but in the summer and fall, I'd like to have some windows open, and the a/c off, at least occasionally. Above average rainfall for the next few months could help soil moisture and benefit temperature, but I think the drought in some parts of the country needs to be eaten away for any synoptic benefit; otherwise, we may end up with a humid mess this summer. Maybe we should just be happy if we don't get any more 11+ inch rainstorms in the middle of July. We have seen an uptick in stronger storms over the past decade from my experiences. I don't mind a hot 4th of July. I've seen some cool ones but leaving the windows open during my favorite holiday means the inside of my house smells like fireworks. In future years, we will remember this year as a year (La Nina III) that burnt us over...and over...sometimes literally. Oh, and some people like severe storms. AFAIC, I don't want those IMBY. Keep that trend going.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 5, 2023 13:34:06 GMT -6
It’s so no nice outside, bring in spring and baseball!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2023 13:38:09 GMT -6
Jordan Walker with 2 homers yesterday.
Hopefully, we finally have a homegrown superstar.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2023 13:46:16 GMT -6
Jordan Walker with 2 homers yesterday. Hopefully, we finally have a homegrown superstar. He’s my NLROTY Obviously slightly biased being a cardinals fan lol |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 5, 2023 13:55:21 GMT -6
EPS basically no cold , a few degrees below normal for a few days no snow at all for two weeks out , really no signs of cold even at the end of its run
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 5, 2023 14:32:35 GMT -6
Two days ago the NWS had a graphic showing lows in the teens lol….. this winter is beyond a joke
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2023 15:14:20 GMT -6
Jordan Walker with 2 homers yesterday. Hopefully, we finally have a homegrown superstar. He’s my NLROTY Obviously slightly biased being a cardinals fan lol The offense is going to be a juggernaut. Especially if Noot can backup his second half. All of the underlying analytics suggest he is going to be awesome |
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 5, 2023 19:09:47 GMT -6
You know winter is coming to an end when Hidden Valley Closes for the Season.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 5, 2023 20:49:45 GMT -6
I was surprised it stayed open as long as it did.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2023 22:46:33 GMT -6
I'm surprised it even exists. We had very little snow making weather this winter. After winters like the one we just experienced, I always wait on the announcing permanent closure.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 6, 2023 0:29:45 GMT -6
I'm so glad most of you guys have kept up on the Winter season babble. Even though it hasn't been good at all.
I just really lost interest these past few months. Don't get me wrong. I check in here almost daily and glad things are staying active as far as talk.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Mar 6, 2023 7:36:13 GMT -6
Two days ago the NWS had a graphic showing lows in the teens lol….. this winter is beyond a joke I was going to ask if that was a fever dream or if anyone else saw it but then remembered I saw that posted here before seeing it on Twitter. Ridiculous. The Pacific just will not stop hosing us and keeps blocking any kind of a persistent winter pattern from developing in our wheelhouse. Bring on Spring. I tossed a baseball around in the backyard with my 5-year-old kid yesterday and it felt great outside. He's bummed about the lack of sledding opportunities this year but I think we're both ready for warm weather. |
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