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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2023 21:41:21 GMT -6
There’s no pot shots, I was just pointing out facts, I was never the one talking over and over about how the pattern would change and turn “cold and snowy “ I’ve said it many times, most of these SSWs do not have a big effect on our weather, yes at times they do but it’s more rare than happening. You mad? Maybe step away from the keyboard and find something constructive to do... |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 6, 2023 21:49:51 GMT -6
I’m literally just stating facts and what’s being modeled and my opinion on SSW’s . I’m not the ones getting all defensive and upset over it. The SSW is not working out, that’s very evident on all the models and ensembles .
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2023 22:01:49 GMT -6
I’m literally just stating facts and what’s being modeled and my opinion on SSW’s . I’m not the ones getting all defensive and upset over it. The SSW is not working out, that’s very evident on all the models and ensembles . *Not bringing snow to your backyard Fixed it for you |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 6, 2023 22:22:32 GMT -6
The ssw is definitely a regional thing. It affects different places at different times when different things happen. I was thinking Feb would be cold and wintry but it wasn't and that made me figure the rest of the season would be crappy even with the ssw. The Pacific ocean o erwhelmed everything. When the ensembles looked good a week plus out than disintegrated to crap like 4 or 5 times there was no point in thinking it would happen. It still might get cool, but probably not real cold, and likely no snow for here. Msp on the other hand, could get their snowiest season ever lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 6, 2023 22:33:42 GMT -6
Might see some flakes fly Wednesday morning
Looks more likely the further NE you are
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Post by landscaper on Mar 6, 2023 22:34:20 GMT -6
Yep my point exactly
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2023 22:47:05 GMT -6
Ggem has lows bottoming out in STL at 13 degrees next week.
Gfs has a potential winter storm by the end of next week.
It’s not like there aren’t signs of winter considering it’s March.
There is even a puncher’s chance at a hybrid clipper this weekend
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 7, 2023 1:45:35 GMT -6
Ggem has lows bottoming out in STL at 13 degrees next week. Gfs has a potential winter storm by the end of next week. It’s not like there aren’t signs of winter considering it’s March. There is even a puncher’s chance at a hybrid clipper this weekend Ya but that's just it. Models show a storm 1-2 weeks away. Cold air looks decent. Only to back off the next day or two. It's the whole, just 2 more weeks! Lol |
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 7, 2023 6:06:55 GMT -6
Looks like we will not be seeing much sun over the next two weeks.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2023 8:13:28 GMT -6
Soda Spring, CA has recorded nearly 50 FEET of snowfall this season so far. You'd think they could spare a foot or so...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2023 8:50:45 GMT -6
I could be seeing things, but there looks to be a couple chances for snowfall on the models over the next week or so and colder air building in. Almost as if there has been a major pattern change spurred by a warming stratosphere  |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2023 10:26:17 GMT -6
Easy there guys. Don’t let the negativity of this winter bleed into your interactions.
The SSW may not be a direct hit to us. That is fine. I don’t think anyone said with 100% confidence that it would be.
What was being said is that it should be enough to disrupt, perhaps permanently this season, the overall seasonal pattern for the lower 48. I’m fine with that.
I’d say the proof is in the pudding. Looking at the extended for rest of the month of March for STL, the normal high starts at 51 and ends at 63. Crapuweather doesn’t bring anything into the 60s except for 1 day.
With the flood of pacific air, 60s, 70s and 80s should be common, but because of the SSW, they aren’t.
Perspective.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2023 10:29:41 GMT -6
Easy there guys. Don’t let the negativity of this winter bleed into your interactions. The SSW may not be a direct hit to us. That is fine. I don’t think anyone said with 100% confidence that it would be. What was being said is that it should be enough to disrupt, perhaps permanently this season, the overall seasonal pattern for the lower 48. I’m fine with that. I’d say the proof is in the pudding. Looking at the extended for rest of the month of March for STL, the normal high starts at 51 and ends at 63. Crapuweather doesn’t bring anything into the 60s except for 1 day. With the flood of pacific air, 60s, 70s and 80s should be common, but because of the SSW, they aren’t. Perspective. Finally some fair and balanced nuance with a reasonable interpretation. You can basically see a “daughter” vortice over the northeast on both the 12z gfs and 12z ggem significantly impacting weather across a large swath of the US. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2023 10:37:42 GMT -6
Dr Cohen tweeted that the vortex is strengthening and winter is over lol basically.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2023 10:39:30 GMT -6
Latest polar cap geopotential height plot shows strengthening #polarvortex but more importantly a lack of high latitude blocking. Would likely be for all intensive purposes the final nail in the coffin of #winter or for many zombie winter 2023. This forecast tends to be volatile!
From Dr cohen
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2023 10:41:55 GMT -6
Easy there guys. Don’t let the negativity of this winter bleed into your interactions. The SSW may not be a direct hit to us. That is fine. I don’t think anyone said with 100% confidence that it would be. What was being said is that it should be enough to disrupt, perhaps permanently this season, the overall seasonal pattern for the lower 48. I’m fine with that. I’d say the proof is in the pudding. Looking at the extended for rest of the month of March for STL, the normal high starts at 51 and ends at 63. Crapuweather doesn’t bring anything into the 60s except for 1 day. With the flood of pacific air, 60s, 70s and 80s should be common, but because of the SSW, they aren’t. Perspective. Great, can’t even get some nice warm weather lol. Just more cold rain. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2023 10:49:49 GMT -6
Latest polar cap geopotential height plot shows strengthening #polarvortex but more importantly a lack of high latitude blocking. Would likely be for all intents and purposes the final nail in the coffin of #winter or for many zombie winter 2023. This forecast tends to be volatile! From Dr cohen Did you read the last sentence? |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 7, 2023 10:53:51 GMT -6
Long range forecasting is a crap shoot... no matter what you are looking at.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2023 11:15:40 GMT -6
Latest polar cap geopotential height plot shows strengthening #polarvortex but more importantly a lack of high latitude blocking. Would likely be for all intents and purposes the final nail in the coffin of #winter or for many zombie winter 2023. This forecast tends to be volatile! From Dr cohen Did you read the last sentence? Look. I'm not being combative. I posted a tweet from a guy I actually introduced you all to many years ago. Of course I read it. The forecast is always volatile. And as coz said, long range forecasting is always a crapshoot, maybe in the future it'll get better as we learn more. Ive figured this junk winter was over weeks ago. If it snows, it snows, I really couldn't care anymore this season. More coldish rain though is just depressing. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2023 11:26:14 GMT -6
Did you read the last sentence? Look. I'm not being combative. I posted a tweet from a guy I actually introduced you all to many years ago. Of course I read it. The forecast is always volatile. And as coz said, long range forecasting is always a crapshoot, maybe in the future it'll get better as we learn more. Ive figured this junk winter was over weeks ago. If it snows, it snows, I really couldn't care anymore this season. More coldish rain though is just depressing. He has stated he tweets to be provocative and to generate traffic towards his blog where he provides well reasoned takes is my point. His tweets do 180 degree turns routinely which is frustrating but he needs money too. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2023 11:33:42 GMT -6
Yeah, I know, i read him every week. Extremely intelligent and well written thoughts.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2023 11:41:14 GMT -6
Yeah, I know, i read him every week. Extremely intelligent and well written thoughts. Then I think we agree lol |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 7, 2023 12:00:59 GMT -6
Soda Spring, CA has recorded nearly 50 FEET of snowfall this season so far. You'd think they could spare a foot or so... I've been watching YouTube videos out of Mammoth. The amount of snow is just crazy. Even they're getting sick of it. Snow banks nearly as tall as the street lights. Many streets wide enough for just 1 car. And it just keeps coming. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2023 13:30:31 GMT -6
Teleconnections looks pretty warm once we hit mid month.
Positive AO and NAO
Positive EPO
I’ve noticed models starting to develop a pretty good ridge over the middle of the CONUS mid month.
The flow over North America looks very chaotic though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2023 13:43:36 GMT -6
I like the look over the middle of the country late next week.
All 3 globals show a storm.
The euro in particular would send winter out with a bang for parts of the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2023 13:49:29 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2023 14:44:47 GMT -6
I like the look over the middle of the country late next week. All 3 globals show a storm. The euro in particular would send winter out with a bang for parts of the area. I see energy nosing into a confluence across the lakes/E US...that's a favorable pattern for "something" of the wintry variety around here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2023 15:06:30 GMT -6
Can't say that I agree that the pattern looks mild towards mid-month. The AO/NAO is trending upward towards neutral but the MJO strongly supports a colder pattern and the SOI just took another dip. The PNA also looks to become neutral. We may see a moderation next week, but I'd expect more of a roller coaster pattern looking at the teleconnection trends with cold shots still possible.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 7, 2023 15:24:14 GMT -6
Time will tell whether we see some cold and snow, one thing is for sure the upper Midwest will have one monster snow pack to melt in the coming months. In addition, California and many western states are putting huge dents in the drought and filling up lakes and reservoirs with several more weeks of stormy weather predicted.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2023 17:56:41 GMT -6
Time will tell whether we see some cold and snow, one thing is for sure the upper Midwest will have one monster snow pack to melt in the coming months. In addition, California and many western states are putting huge dents in the drought and filling up lakes and reservoirs with several more weeks of stormy weather predicted. As I think about all of the precipitation in CA, I wonder what effects it will have on our weather as we head later into spring, summer, and fall and if there will be any lingering effects for next years’ winter, if any. I’d say it would, but then again, we have the mountain filter in between. I need to start keeping a list of research projects to do when I can’t sleep. |
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