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Post by mchafin on Mar 9, 2023 12:33:43 GMT -6
It means that Chris Farley is going to show up in pro wrestling pants and yell dramatically El Niño is Spanish for…the Niño |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2023 13:34:50 GMT -6
GFS sure looks interesting later next week...spins up a major winter storm just to the south and then dumps arctic air in behind it. All the models look very cold by the weekend. The GEM looks bonkers with the vortex setting up shop overhead and SNSH galore. Euro tries to develop something along the arctic front but fails to get anything going.
Winter isn't done with us yet...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 9, 2023 13:57:37 GMT -6
I jave a hunch that weather will continue to happen now that the triple decker la nina is over, but theres no way of knowing what kind of weather it will be....just that it will continue to happen. That is all.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 9, 2023 14:03:15 GMT -6
GFS sure looks interesting later next week...spins up a major winter storm just to the south and then dumps arctic air in behind it. All the models look very cold by the weekend. The GEM looks bonkers with the vortex setting up shop overhead and SNSH galore. Euro tries to develop something along the arctic front but fails to get anything going. Winter isn't done with us yet... I don’t know how anyone could look at that and suggest not wintry lol. Huge temp ananolies and a reasonable chance for a storm in the region. I give up |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 9, 2023 15:30:55 GMT -6
GFS sure looks interesting later next week...spins up a major winter storm just to the south and then dumps arctic air in behind it. All the models look very cold by the weekend. The GEM looks bonkers with the vortex setting up shop overhead and SNSH galore. Euro tries to develop something along the arctic front but fails to get anything going. Winter isn't done with us yet... Ya sure... |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 9, 2023 15:31:36 GMT -6
GFS sure looks interesting later next week...spins up a major winter storm just to the south and then dumps arctic air in behind it. All the models look very cold by the weekend. The GEM looks bonkers with the vortex setting up shop overhead and SNSH galore. Euro tries to develop something along the arctic front but fails to get anything going. Winter isn't done with us yet... Ya sure... Cold maybe, but snow. 🤔 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2023 15:56:25 GMT -6
GFS sure looks interesting later next week...spins up a major winter storm just to the south and then dumps arctic air in behind it. All the models look very cold by the weekend. The GEM looks bonkers with the vortex setting up shop overhead and SNSH galore. Euro tries to develop something along the arctic front but fails to get anything going. Winter isn't done with us yet... I don’t know how anyone could look at that and suggest not wintry lol. Huge temp ananolies and a reasonable chance for a storm in the region. I give up The denial is real...a lot of folks wrote off the SSW and shift towards a colder pattern based on the mild winter and that assumption isn't looking too good. I think most are ready for spring, including myself...and it shows. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2023 16:06:42 GMT -6
In my case, it’s just apathy for any more snow this winter.
Two perfect storm tracks (one being sub 980mb) leading to rainy deformation zones just kills any enthusiasm
I’ll believe it’ll snow when it’s falling at this point
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2023 16:17:15 GMT -6
In my case, it’s just apathy for any more snow this winter. Two perfect storm tracks (one being sub 980mb) leading to rainy deformation zones just kills any enthusiasm I’ll believe it’ll snow when it’s falling at this point Myself, I can't wait to move away from here to somewhere where the weather isn't so flaky and miserable, lol. Probably a 5 or 10 year plan, unfortunately. |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 9, 2023 16:19:24 GMT -6
I agree snow, unfortunately most of us are realistic. This storm today was modeled as snow 7-9 days ago, the Saturday night/Sunday storm was modeled as snow, for a couple days, it’s been the same story all winter. 7-10 days out models show us getting cold and snow only to have it rain and 30’s&40’s . Now the gfs and gem have something next Friday, maybe it will happen, maybe it will be another cold rain event. Who knows at this point, unfortunately we’re so late in the year at this point it will take so many things to align to get accumulating snow in the metro. Not rain with a few wet flakes mixed in a legit ground covering snow. I do think anyone 5+ hours north of St. Louis Chicago/ Des Moines is going to get several winter storms. The GFS has been the absolute worst with its 7-14 day fantasy snow events . I think it does look colder next week we just need something to time up perfectly in order to cash in. Nothing worse than our current weather, rain and 40 degrees
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 9, 2023 17:11:10 GMT -6
No, not a matter of being realistic.
A matter of moving the goal posts.
The SSW happened and has directly impacted the pattern.
Its existence has raised the probability of cold and/or snow in the region which is what I said.
The end
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 9, 2023 19:18:40 GMT -6
I'm hearing different uses for it so I'm wondering which, if any, is correct. The term is "atmospheric river."
I've heard it used to describe the flow of moisture that carries the lows pressure system. I've heard it used to describe each low pressure system that will come on to the west coast. And I've. Heard it used to describe each pulse of energy; even when there's multiple pulses of energy generated by a single low pressure vortex.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2023 19:52:54 GMT -6
I'm hearing different uses for it so I'm wondering which, if any, is correct. The term is "atmospheric river." I've heard it used to describe the flow of moisture that carries the lows pressure system. I've heard it used to describe each low pressure system that will come on to the west coast. And I've. Heard it used to describe each pulse of energy; even when there's multiple pulses of energy generated by a single low pressure vortex. Atmospheric rivers are persistent ribbons of anomalously high moisture/precipitable water, usually associated with the subtropical jetstream linking up with a persistent trof in the mid-latitudes with multiple disturbances moving through it over the course of several days or more. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 9, 2023 20:17:05 GMT -6
I'm hearing different uses for it so I'm wondering which, if any, is correct. The term is "atmospheric river." I've heard it used to describe the flow of moisture that carries the lows pressure system. I've heard it used to describe each low pressure system that will come on to the west coast. And I've. Heard it used to describe each pulse of energy; even when there's multiple pulses of energy generated by a single low pressure vortex. To go along with what BRTN explained, I annotated satellite total precipitable water imagery to illustrate what's happening.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 10, 2023 2:32:40 GMT -6
Okay, that's what I thinking. Thank you.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2023 8:16:16 GMT -6
Looks like NYC and the upper Mid-Atlantic/S New England may be making up snowfall deficits in spades over the next several days with a pair of Miller B coastal storms.
Must be nice...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2023 9:34:51 GMT -6
Still major model discrepancies with that potential storm later next week with the GFS more dominant with the N stream that crushes the S stream energy vs. the GEM/EC that has more favorable phasing and tries to develop a secondary wave.
I'd say something is brewing, but the flavor is TBD.
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Post by dschreib on Mar 10, 2023 9:36:05 GMT -6
Still major model discrepancies with that potential storm later next week with the GFS more dominant with the N stream that crushes the S stream energy vs. the GEM/EC that has more favorable phasing and tries to develop a secondary wave. I'd say something is brewing, but the flavor is TBD. I prefer stout. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 10, 2023 9:51:34 GMT -6
Still major model discrepancies with that potential storm later next week with the GFS more dominant with the N stream that crushes the S stream energy vs. the GEM/EC that has more favorable phasing and tries to develop a secondary wave. I'd say something is brewing, but the flavor is TBD. I prefer stout. I'm more of an IPA guy. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2023 10:46:39 GMT -6
I'm fine with a watery lager, as long as there's several of them...but would prefer a tall white ale
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 10, 2023 11:03:00 GMT -6
i like beer
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Post by ComoEsJn on Mar 10, 2023 11:24:33 GMT -6
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Post by bear1 on Mar 10, 2023 11:54:42 GMT -6
It makes me feel mellow...  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 10, 2023 12:44:40 GMT -6
Tons of cold air showing up across the models.
Now, the 12z euro has a pretty nice setup end of next week.
Nice
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 10, 2023 13:18:06 GMT -6
Lets see what happens next week but not holding my breath.
The springfield illinois to mexico missouri like has been in a real snow drought even worse than the metro this winter so lets see if they can get a little tomorrow maybe.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Mar 10, 2023 13:33:01 GMT -6
toss me on the "meh, spring training has begun, its mid-March, give me 65-70 degrees so I HOPE this somehow busts" train
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2023 13:45:35 GMT -6
EC is close to something epic next week...the GOOFUS says "what storm"
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 10, 2023 18:22:08 GMT -6
Hey look, Dr. Cohen tweeted about 2 more potential “drips” on the Arctic geopotential height anomaly plot.
That would strongly support wintry period through the end of March.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2023 19:16:59 GMT -6
Hey look, Dr. Cohen tweeted about 2 more potential “drips” on the Arctic geopotential height anomaly plot. That would strongly support wintry period through the end of March. The polar height plot shows a textbook downwelling event occurring for sure...the model forecasts that were showing the AO going positive were bunk. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 10, 2023 22:57:06 GMT -6
Extremely anomalous cold showing up next weekend on the 00z ggem.
Most models have a storm next Friday.
Interesting stuff
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