Chris's Corner - Active March into March

It’s truly amazing with how many storm systems we have had how little snow we have had …… I would say it’s unbelievable but we have been living it for years now ……. So aggravating

like 2 out of 50 EPS have snow here in the next 10 days. so that's cool
12z gfs is nothing

The end of week storm is dependent on a secondary low.

The gfs is throwing too much weight into the northern branch.

No surprise there.

The last couple runs of the euro have tried to blow up a secondary low as the cold core dives down on the backside.

That cold is very impressive for mid March.

Yep, wetbulbs are running just above freezing so sleet/wet snow is possible especially across the N counties. But any accumulations are unlikely outside of a quick burst of sleet that may briefly coat the pavement.

a couple of the 30 GEFS at 12 z have air flakes here the next 10 days.

not really

If the -20* isotherm moves across the region like the UK shows, there would almost surely be SNSH activity in the cyclonic flow.

The support for a secondary just isn't there though...the GFS may be right with the dominant N stream. We need to see a more coherent wave ejecting out of the SW that phases favorably and I'm not seeing much if any support for that right now. The SOI signaled the energy coming through well but it's not looking like a favorable pattern for a winter storm for our region on the models currently.

That could change though...it's still almost a week out.

It’s March 11 and there is no reason to really think we will experience anything wintry based on the season trend. Sometimes your gut feeling and general observations trump model outputs in the 7-10 day range.

Unfortunately it appears we may be mired in an annoying pointless cool to cold pattern a good part of this month though when we’re all ready to turn the page.



We should probably ask the weather gods for a warm November next year.

The pattern is entirely different, so the seasonal trend is irrelevant.

The odds of snow on average for STL by mid March are relatively poor so of course anchoring to that outcome will make you right more often.

I’m saying the SSW and associated pattern change have shifted the probabilities to be more favorable than average.


Both observations can be true at the same time.

There are definitely a couple colder shots coming on the models, unfortunately there’s no frozen precipitation showing up on any of them operational or ensembles for the metro area. Rain to cold to a warm up , rain to cold, rinse and repeat.

Agreed. Last week, local soil temps here pushed as high as 48°F. That's too close! Back down to 42°F now, last I read. April is prime time, not mid March.

I’m good with average. A warm one makes deer hunting suck.

Is it too much to ask for Dec-Feb to have below normal temps and above normal snow, then have a nice, progressive warmup in March and April?

Sleeting in Festus!

We had a few pings of sleet in Arnold as well

I put down some fertilizer on the yard this morning so hoping for some decent rain later today and tonight