bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 26, 2023 22:04:50 GMT -6
Sounds like we are going to be disappointed again
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Post by landscaper on Feb 26, 2023 22:07:06 GMT -6
Yea we do not want that solution way to close to nothing
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Post by landscaper on Feb 26, 2023 22:10:25 GMT -6
On black and white charts , Gem way more suppressed and weaker, nothing in the metro or viewing area basically a 993 low well southeast of us
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Post by landscaper on Feb 26, 2023 22:13:40 GMT -6
I guess we’re 1 for 3 at this point for snow in the metro, next up GEFS and Ukmet , I’m sure the GEFS will be decent, hopefully the Ukmet stays the course
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 26, 2023 22:25:37 GMT -6
Hmm. Will the seasonal trend of weaker and further south hold?? You’d think so with these outrageously strong model solutions.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 26, 2023 22:37:54 GMT -6
0Z GEFS is little changed from 18Z. It is north of our benchmark but not by much.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2023 22:50:06 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is slightly east of 12z.
Temps are slow to hit the magic mark west of the river, but the Illinois side does very well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 0:28:47 GMT -6
Euro still looks solid
I was just looking though, and it prints out over 3" of QPF downtown but only has 7-8" of snow (positive snow depth change).
That's a lot of rain or messy mix
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 27, 2023 1:12:59 GMT -6
Hoping for the works next Friday. Severe storms plus a heavy dose of snow!
I'm sick of these overnight events like tonight. Dying line...ugh. guess we will see.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 27, 2023 4:38:01 GMT -6
Euro still looks solid I was just looking though, and it prints out over 3" of QPF downtown but only has 7-8" of snow (positive snow depth change). That's a lot of rain or messy mix The Euro almost looks like it took a very slight jog SE vs. previous runs. The 6z GFS remains further NW. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 27, 2023 5:54:20 GMT -6
I see a 982 over NW MO. Not a record but a pretty strong storm. It looks like in recent runs of the models this storm will move more east than northeast. If that verifies it should/could/maybe have more of an influence on Thurs./Friday system. Not ready to give it up just yet.
Edit: Unless I slept through it I was expecting loud thunder. I didn't hear any 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 27, 2023 6:02:44 GMT -6
Yikes, all mention of smow is gone from my forecast area and moved up to Mexico, MO
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 6:31:47 GMT -6
Breezy
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 7:23:47 GMT -6
Looks like last night's model runs pretty well stayed the course with the GFS remaining on the amped/NW side of the envelope and the GEM on the sheared/SE side with the EC right in the middle. The GEFS looks to have shifted maybe 50mi N/NW with the SLP tracking across the bootheel and up the Ohio River but the 850mb low track is still pretty ideal. Models are suggesting a changeover around daybreak in the Metro with the heavy band setting up roughly along/NW of 44 into IL. Several inches of snow could fall under that band, but the timing of changeover is crucial. The GFS has a much more marginal temp profile because of how amped it is and the strong TROWAL it shows. The EC is colder overall, which is a good sign as it typically handles thermo profile a bit better.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 7:49:43 GMT -6
Given all that, the most likely scenario now is for wet,
accumulating snowfall of up to a couple of inches for areas likely
north of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. It is worth noting
that the trend for the low track over the last several
initialization has been more northward. If this trend continues, the
chance for accumulating snowfall will also shift northward and away
from the aforementioned corridor. Additionally, if surface
temperatures end up slightly warmer than currently anticipated,
mostly rain will be favored.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 27, 2023 8:05:41 GMT -6
That may be the understatement of the year. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 8:15:32 GMT -6
00z GEPS mean looks great with a 990mb low tracking right across the benchmark and the 0* line through the Metro by 12z Fri. That certainly favors the heavy snow band setting up through the Metro. The EEPS and GEFS mean is slightly NW of that but still a favorable track for the Metro and N/W counties.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 8:42:46 GMT -6
The 6Z GEFS and even more so 6Z EPS are north of the ideal benchmark track. The GEFS sends the 850mb low track through Farmington while EPS sends it through the metro area. This obviously favors a mostly rain scenario given the thermal profiles we have been seeing thusfar.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 8:50:35 GMT -6
Some of these models show the SLP tracking left of the 500mb track...that's a bit hard to believe.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 27, 2023 8:56:08 GMT -6
Some of these models show the SLP tracking left of the 500mb track...that's a bit hard to believe. Hard to believe a lot of scenarios that have come through the MW this winter! Unfortunately for us, they come to fruition when we don't want them to. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 8:59:22 GMT -6
Some of these models show the SLP tracking left of the 500mb track...that's a bit hard to believe. Hard to believe a lot of scenarios that have come through the MW this winter! Unfortunately for us, they come to fruition when we don't want them to. If this storm brings a rainy deformation, we're 100% cursed. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 9:01:04 GMT -6
12z nam at hour 84 looks pretty north.
Extrapolating it out from there, I would estimate it would be the furthest north model, but a lot of assumptions there.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 27, 2023 9:15:39 GMT -6
Yes , 12z NAM at 84 looks like it would be north and warm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 9:19:09 GMT -6
NBM is pretty far north
Max snow band is in SE Iowa through N IL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 9:31:25 GMT -6
This isn’t a good look for snow chances on the 06z EPS Many lows that track overhead or N of here The strength of some of these lows is crazy  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 9:40:19 GMT -6
i mean blizzards on models 5 days out never happen here obviously, much less decent snow..This north trend was/has been obvious.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 9:44:31 GMT -6
Interesting...there are a significant number of pressure records in there.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 9:49:25 GMT -6
first loser model of the day, icon 99% rain, maybe a few flakes at the end
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 9:50:03 GMT -6
Yeah, and it can't even muster a new Missouri pressure record. Lame.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 9:51:54 GMT -6
This isn’t a good look for snow chances on the 06z EPS Many lows that track overhead or N of here The strength of some of these lows is crazy That looks like a good 50-75mi NW shift from the 00z run. A continued NW trend would pretty well drive the dagger for snow chances in the Metro. But there's still quite a bit of guidance SE of that so we're still in the game at this point. |
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