|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 9:58:47 GMT -6
lol, this one is dunzo
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 27, 2023 9:58:57 GMT -6
Gfs is going to be a big cuter mostly rain at lease we’re knocked out early and we can stop model watching
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 27, 2023 10:00:58 GMT -6
Yep, she gone!
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 10:02:18 GMT -6
The GFS is so far north the severe weather might encroach into Missouri. It does bomb the low out in Missouri at 976 mb which would at least be interesting to track.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 10:03:28 GMT -6
Model watching for snow is cool, but model watching for a pressure record is where it’s really at
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 10:04:14 GMT -6
Lol. I literally busted out laughing at that comment 920.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Feb 27, 2023 10:04:34 GMT -6
Definitely some severe weather concerns in SE MO on that run of the GFS.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 10:07:43 GMT -6
Lol, gfs is too far north for me in Chicago.
Ridiculous
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 10:12:07 GMT -6
For such a powerful storm, the snowfield being laid down by some of the models is pretty pathetic
That GFS run has anyone in MO struggling to get more than a couple inches
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 10:12:46 GMT -6
12Z much more in line of seasonal trends, a cutter is all but assured with deep pressure like that, might actually still not be far enough north. Thinking this might very well be a severe weather outbreak concern for us. Glad I never jumped on this band wagon.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 10:13:55 GMT -6
Still think Winter's done south of I-80 but that's me.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 10:17:11 GMT -6
lol, right on cue
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 10:19:08 GMT -6
Still think Winter's done south of I-80 but that's me. All the technical indicators suggest cold from the 2nd week of March forward so there is that. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 10:20:07 GMT -6
There are some nasty severe weather soundings in that run especially in the OK/TX/AR/LA border area. The SPC is already talking about strong tornadoes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 10:20:39 GMT -6
12z ggem came north some, but way south/weaker than the gfs.
Actually need it a bit stronger to get enough dynamic cooling for snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Feb 27, 2023 10:21:33 GMT -6
Sounds like we are going to be disappointed again If you temper expectations, you are rarely disappointed. I haven't really even mentioned the possibility of snow Friday because I don't want to hear it from folks if it doesn't happen. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 10:23:05 GMT -6
Maybe we should see more guidance come in before bailing with the super amped GFS and 84hr NAM, lol?
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 10:25:26 GMT -6
Still think Winter's done south of I-80 but that's me. All the technical indicators suggest cold from the 2nd week of March forward so there is that. Not the PNA! It's in a moderate negative phase which from what I'm looking at suggests warmth over the Mississippi River Valley towards the east coast with no sign of even going neutral until mid month (March) or later. MJO is in a good phase and there's some blocking, but PNA is gonna keep any 'sustained' cold and storms north of the bi-state region. For us, the Pacific trumps what the Atlantic is doing most of the time. Only a strong negative AO/NAO with good MJO phases might have potential to suppress a southeast ridge, but with it shifting towards the Gulf and into Mexico by next week, that's a poor set up for us, and again strong lows wanna pull north even with the ridge weakening briefly as it swings through it won't matter much. Unless the pacific wants to play (which it doesn't), then no winter weather for us, or at best fleeting. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 10:26:00 GMT -6
There are some nasty severe weather soundings in that run especially in the OK/TX/AR/LA border area. The SPC is already talking about strong tornadoes. The severe side of this system is looking much more impressive than the winter side |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 10:27:13 GMT -6
Maybe we should see more guidance come in before bailing with the super amped GFS and 84hr NAM, lol? Get out of here with your rational thinking! |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 10:28:59 GMT -6
MJO also only gets to phase 8 before sucking right back into the 'neutral circle' for late Feb and into March we need phase 1 and 2 for cold signal. That doesn't happen on any except a couple and it's weak at that before wrapping back around into warmer phases by late March. Outside of the Atlantic it just doesn't look good for Winter weather in St. Louis, sorry but it doesn't.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 10:30:53 GMT -6
Actually believe April has a better chance of below normal temps and snow then a cold or even seasonable March. March just looks like a warm but stormy month to me.
Fluke one or 2 day cold snaps, yes... But warmth will prevail by a wide margin.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 10:30:54 GMT -6
Crazy gusts.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 10:32:31 GMT -6
MJO also only gets to phase 8 before sucking right back into the 'neutral circle' for late Feb and into March we need phase 1 and 2 for cold signal. That doesn't happen on any except a couple and it's weak at that before wrapping back around into warmer phases by late March. Outside of the Atlantic it just doesn't look good for Winter weather in St. Louis, sorry but it doesn't. GEFS has PNA trending toward neutral by mid March. EPO looks to go negative, potentially strongly negative. 00z EPS had significant cold across virtually the entire CONUS by mid March. Sorry, but it does. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 10:34:35 GMT -6
Let's keep in mind that the NAM was overamped at this range with the storm in January and the storm ended up tracking a bit SE of guidance in the end which was part of the reason why STL got less snow because the initial surge of heavy precip skirted S/E of the Metro.
It's pretty likely some of these model runs and members are way too amped up. It seems highly unlikely pressures will approach sub-970mb as the storm crosses into MO.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 10:35:52 GMT -6
MJO also only gets to phase 8 before sucking right back into the 'neutral circle' for late Feb and into March we need phase 1 and 2 for cold signal. That doesn't happen on any except a couple and it's weak at that before wrapping back around into warmer phases by late March. Outside of the Atlantic it just doesn't look good for Winter weather in St. Louis, sorry but it doesn't. GEFS has PNA trending toward neutral by mid March. EPO looks to go negative, potentially strongly negative. 00z EPS had significant cold across virtually the entire CONUS by mid March. Sorry, but it does. Sorry We need a positive PNA for any major affects for us. Show a model that shows a positive PNA preferably a few and perhaps you might convince me. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 27, 2023 10:36:49 GMT -6
Going to side with the warm outlook, regardless of what the indicators are showing 2 weeks out. We've two-weeked ourselves dang near to spring, and the seasonal trend is unlikely to falter.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 10:38:10 GMT -6
GEFS has PNA trending toward neutral by mid March. EPO looks to go negative, potentially strongly negative. 00z EPS had significant cold across virtually the entire CONUS by mid March. Sorry, but it does. Sorry We need a positive PNA for any major affects for us. Show a model that shows a positive PNA preferably a few and perhaps you might convince me. You always say it is going to be hot lol. I gave you a bunch of supporting factors and you gave me a -PNA that is trending toward neutral or positive. You have a hammer and think everything is a nail. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 10:43:06 GMT -6
possible nyc ends its snow drought tonight. Also possible they get more snow than we've had all season, lmao
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 10:46:31 GMT -6
One of the GEFS members has a 955mb low just south of the metro I repeat, a 955mb low  |
|
