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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 13:15:19 GMT -6
Looks like the lowest pressure reading on the EPS is only 962 mb in central MO Weak sauce  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 27, 2023 13:34:46 GMT -6
Looks like we are the usual burnt toast over here…….. but I’m sure the 50 mph winds will find us ……..
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 13:35:06 GMT -6
Expansive cold dome on the 12z euro and EPS by the middle of next week.
Things look exciting
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 13:38:54 GMT -6
The GFS is trending less flat/more amplified with the height field across the lakes with the 12z run and the trof becomes negatively tilted a bit quicker hence the NW adjustment. The GEM and EC are more subdued with the N shift but still shows an adjustment. We need to see another run cycle or two to see if this is a blip or a definitive trend.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 13:52:21 GMT -6
Models definitely seem to be trending towards a stacked cyclone...IIRC, they were showing this with the storm in January and it didn't verify.
Still plenty to sort out here.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 13:59:31 GMT -6
6” of snow who cares about a deep low with heavy rain and wind nah the atmospheric dynamics involved with a 955mb mid-latitude cyclone would be infinitely times cooler than 6" of snow that would melt the next day
955mb is the strength of some strong hurricanes
It will be windy, but i dont think we will see flying cows but i could be wrong. I think it will be akin to a weakening td moving over the area, with wind blown rain. 6 inches of snow that sticks on trees would be the perfect picturesque sight to end on for the year. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 14:25:24 GMT -6
Looking back at posts from the Jan storm, the GFS and NAM were definitely NW outliers at this range and the GFS started to forecast a stacked cyclone which turned out to be bunk. The EC was a SE outlier to begin with at range, but trended towards the NAM/GFS while they came a bit SE.
I'd say it's likely the GFS/NAM is too amped and too far N/W...but we'll see.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 14:35:26 GMT -6
I do have a feeling models are to amped right now
The current depiction of a sub 980 low goes against everything we’ve seen the last several years
This is a powerful shortwave though.
As the saying goes, let’s see what happens
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 15:09:58 GMT -6
Cpc hazards look interesting...again.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 15:18:44 GMT -6
.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 15:20:09 GMT -6
6 years ago tomorrow...
8 years ago tomorrow...
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 27, 2023 15:28:40 GMT -6
Well Here are a couple of GFS model Maps looks like at this point its all rain for us.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 15:28:49 GMT -6
6 years ago tomorrow... 8 years ago tomorrow... 10 years ago tomorrow… 12 years ago tomorrow… |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 15:31:36 GMT -6
The 18z ICON looks good
Except for the fact it’s all rain lol
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 27, 2023 15:43:37 GMT -6
The 18z ICON looks good Except for the fact it’s all rain lol 99 is going to be super jazzed. He loves 35-40 degrees and heavy rain driven by 45mph gusts. The cherry on top is a few sloppy snow flakes at the very end. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 15:45:56 GMT -6
The 18z ICON looks good Except for the fact it’s all rain lol Time of day and warm ground isn't going to help. This thing needs to get south of us and then deepen rapidly to produce enough dynamical cooling for a changeover. Models are trying to go KABOOM once it hits the RRV which is a bit too early. On the more amped solutions like the GFS, the TROWAL completely shuts off the cold tap. Definitely a lot going against this one right now. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 15:53:31 GMT -6
lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 15:57:45 GMT -6
Expansive cold dome on the 12z euro and EPS by the middle of next week. Things look exciting Can't wait for the "meh" and "I told you so" and "the trend has been clear for days". Wash. Rinse. Repugnant. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 27, 2023 15:59:17 GMT -6
NWS pulled any mention of snow out of the forecast this afternoon for Warren and Franklin County.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 16:02:24 GMT -6
Yeah, the repetitiveness of the pattern has been pretty repugnant. Right on!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 16:29:16 GMT -6
Wow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 16:52:31 GMT -6
The 18z gfs ensemble mean is solid for the northern counties.
Though, currently the favored area is Kirksville to Milwaukee from a max band perspective.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 18:37:17 GMT -6
Walked outside and surprised to hear the sound of Spring Peepers
Can’t remember the last time I heard them this early
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 27, 2023 18:45:24 GMT -6
Been hearing the Festus peepers for a couple weeks already! It’s a sign that Lucy is pulling that football from Charlie again!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 19:07:55 GMT -6
I think I heard them in December and January lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 19:08:10 GMT -6
Oh yeah, been hearing them for a couple weeks as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 19:31:47 GMT -6
Don't think Robins migrate away from St. Louis and points south anymore. Again thanks to Climate Change, they are a year round thing now just at times noisier then others.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 27, 2023 19:45:12 GMT -6
I’ve seen robins during the winter since I was a kid
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 19:52:54 GMT -6
robins are native to here I believe
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 20:31:56 GMT -6
18Z EURO continues the northward jolt with Thursday's system. Only goes to hour 90, but looking at the features it's worse then 12Z if you want any hopes of snow save for the northwestern most edge of the area.
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