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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 10:48:24 GMT -6
yeah we should wait for other guidance, like the ukie which has nothing snow wise close to here. Writing has been on the wall for days with this.
The 3 inches of rain will be fantastic though
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 10:51:50 GMT -6
Pretty stark difference from the 18zGEFS yesterday to 12z today. Lmao. Nice consistency fo sho
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 10:53:19 GMT -6
It looks warm for a couple days early next week, but the large-scale pattern strongly supports cold drainage into the US after that. Yes, the PNA is favored to be negative, but that doesn't negate the -NAO/-AO.   |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 27, 2023 11:09:05 GMT -6
I will be real honest, I will be shocked if it gets cold enough for any frozen precipitation, this is not our year. All the drivers and SSW might signal but by then you’re into mid March, very hard to get snow in St. Louis. What looked so good 24 hours ago looks terrible now. I doubt we see any snow or ice the rest of the year
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 11:22:00 GMT -6
Maybe we should just check back in on Wednesday or Thursday, lol.
MTW suicide watch in effect.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 11:24:36 GMT -6
Surprise saving grace at least for this storm would be if the models don't amp it up so much get us something closer to a 990MB low and we'll be in a decent place. These sub 970MB lows aren't good for winter weather prospects at least around these parts. They either dig too far south and become Dixie storms or ride northward into the Great Lakes giving us rain and or quick hits of severe storms but little if any snow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 11:28:58 GMT -6
I will be real honest, I will be shocked if it gets cold enough for any frozen precipitation, this is not our year. All the drivers and SSW might signal but by then you’re into mid March, very hard to get snow in St. Louis. What looked so good 24 hours ago looks terrible now. I doubt we see any snow or ice the rest of the year It's been said before I'm sure, but if it wasn't for that surprise snow of 11/10-11/20222 this would of been one of the crummiest winters since 2011-2012 or 2016-2017. I never had to shovel once this year as even the November snow lasted only a day or 2 and it was gone, and others were mostly ice/sleet/snow sheets that were only an inch thick and can't be shoveled. Usually get to bust the shovel out once or twice a year, but not this one. Temps also to be well above normal around here and globally as well for the Dec-Feb period, but nothing new there. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 27, 2023 11:50:36 GMT -6
On a positive note however, while our Winter sucked for the most part for snow and cold weather fans, it's been an absolute blessing out west especially California and the inter-mountain west where prayers have been answered and continue to be for a few more weeks in regards to ample rainfall and snowfall. This will help big in these areas as they head into their Dry season later this Spring and Summer in terms of refilling reservoirs and aquifers as well as farming activities which will be desperately needed as food prices continue to skyrocket. Think of our crappy boring Winter as a saving grace down the road. Gotta look at the bigger picture sometimes. Plus storm season looks more active for us then it has the past couple of years, so there will be storms to track and likely some chasing weather at some point or another.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 11:55:25 GMT -6
I heard the situation in California is a catastrophe, lol
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 11:56:20 GMT -6
One of the GEFS members has a 955mb low just south of the metro I repeat, a 955mb low Would you rather...get a 955 low or get 6" of snow? It may be controversial here, but I think I'd go with the former. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 11:58:36 GMT -6
The 12Z UKMET took a big jump north too. It looks like it is mostly rain though there could be some above freezing slop at the end I guess if we're lucky.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 12:05:09 GMT -6
One of the GEFS members has a 955mb low just south of the metro I repeat, a 955mb low Would you rather...get a 955 low or get 6" of snow? It may be controversial here, but I think I'd go with the former. 955 low for sure that would be incredible to watch unfold and would go down in the history books |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 12:06:18 GMT -6
Qpf totals over the next couple weeks imby seems to be closing in on 5 inches. Looks like a wet pattern overall for the mid ms and oh valleys as some areas to our se are progged to see close to 8 or 9 inches. An active wx pattern as the qpf suggests may inhibit a prolonged cold airmass for the region if the storm track persists. Then if that is the case, then the upper midwest could get buried. Could set us up for some downright chilly early spring days.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 12:09:14 GMT -6
One of the GEFS members has a 955mb low just south of the metro I repeat, a 955mb low Would you rather...get a 955 low or get 6" of snow? It may be controversial here, but I think I'd go with the former. I will take 6 inches of snow. Id hate to deal with the crazy winds that a 955 implies. 6 inches of snow doesnt cause property damage. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 12:10:54 GMT -6
I heard the situation in California is a catastrophe, lol Yeah, they arent happy for sure. Cant bust a drought of that magnitude in a single season. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 12:11:23 GMT -6
It does is it's heavy cement with 40mph winds...
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Post by landscaper on Feb 27, 2023 12:12:29 GMT -6
6” of snow who cares about a deep low with heavy rain and wind
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 27, 2023 12:22:14 GMT -6
EURO is a big hit.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 12:22:46 GMT -6
12z euro hammers the northern metro.
It has a much more expansive and impressive snow field.
Pretty awesome.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 12:24:17 GMT -6
further north than previous runs,,trend is clear
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 12:25:38 GMT -6
The Euro took a significant jump north with the 850mb low track, but it still wants to play ball at least north of I-44.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 12:25:48 GMT -6
6” of snow who cares about a deep low with heavy rain and wind nah the atmospheric dynamics involved with a 955mb mid-latitude cyclone would be infinitely times cooler than 6" of snow that would melt the next day
955mb is the strength of some strong hurricanes
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 12:27:19 GMT -6
6” of snow who cares about a deep low with heavy rain and wind nah the atmospheric dynamics involved with a 955mb mid-latitude cyclone would be infinitely times cooler than 6" of snow that would melt the next day
955mb is the strength of some strong hurricanes
Agreed, plus it shatters the regional record. I would take 6 inches over a 972mb low, but a 955mb low would be wild. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 12:33:18 GMT -6
Hard to imagine this storm reaching that kind of magnitude with a lack of strong baroclinity. The dynamics check a lot of boxes but I'm not buying a sub-970mb low or really even sub-980mb.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 27, 2023 12:34:15 GMT -6
If it does get that low, it is highly unlikely it's tracking S of us.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 12:41:48 GMT -6
Wherever the heavy band of snow sets up, it will be cool to see the “refrigerator effect”
You can really see it on the euro in Illinois where temps are below freezing over the weekend surrounded by mid-40s.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 27, 2023 13:01:00 GMT -6
That low of a pressure will not happen here, more of a pipe dream than a 12” snow out of this system. I make no revenue off rain and wind, in fact it’s been extremely wet the last couple months. O would rather be dry and warm than rain
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 27, 2023 13:02:47 GMT -6
That low of a pressure will not happen here, more of a pipe dream than a 12” snow out of this system. I make no revenue off rain and wind, in fact it’s been extremely wet the last couple months. O would rather be dry and warm than rain Soil temps were almost up to 50 this weekend. Haven't seen that in years in Feb. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 27, 2023 13:09:05 GMT -6
That low of a pressure will not happen here, more of a pipe dream than a 12” snow out of this system. I make no revenue off rain and wind, in fact it’s been extremely wet the last couple months. O would rather be dry and warm than rain Soil temps were almost up to 50 this weekend. Haven't seen that in years in Feb. Time for pre-emergents very soon. Wont take too long to increase a few more degrees |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 27, 2023 13:10:40 GMT -6
 haven’t seen them bloom this early before. |
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