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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 23, 2023 18:48:44 GMT -6
I have thunder. But the rain seems to be missing us. At least so far.
Edited to add: got some drops of rain but could count on my fingers and toes.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2023 20:06:06 GMT -6
We got about 20 drops of rain today
Might be the most rain we see the next 10 days
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 23, 2023 20:52:03 GMT -6
if you have ants, in a room that is adjacent to your deck (like a deck just outside the kitchen), check for wood rot on that deck. That may be where they are thriving. I was getting ants in my kitchen, but when I replaced the rotted wood on my deck boards, the ants subsided. If you have moulding around any backdoor to your deck, same thing. Ants love that. I see about half dozen ants in my upstairs bathroom each year too, so I get real concerned about mold growing, but the ants are not numerous enough for me to go looking for trouble there, yet.
My big problem is carpenter ants on my deck. I had a pile of wood shavings below my deck, and found the bees have figured out where to drill (in a small space between my deck and house where I can't reach). I just can't seem to get rid of those bad boys.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 23, 2023 20:53:23 GMT -6
btw, just drove home from Wright City in a downpour with thunder. When I got home, there were puddles. Looks like we got some pretty decent downpour.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2023 21:46:24 GMT -6
I guess I tempted the weather gods.
Just had a storm roll through and drop 0.37” of rain
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Post by REB on May 24, 2023 5:52:56 GMT -6
Deerkiller -house spring's Fruit and Seafood store is featured on Fox2 this morning with Tim Ezell all morning!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on May 24, 2023 12:20:25 GMT -6
btw, just drove home from Wright City in a downpour with thunder. When I got home, there were puddles. Looks like we got some pretty decent downpour. My big problem is the amount of potholes in our area. Why can’t they fill these in!? I turned out of Home Depot the other day, hit one and almost damaged my car’s undercarriage exhaust. Why can’t city dollars be allocated towards filling these dangerous holes in our city streets? Here’s one off Bryan Road and Mexico where the Walgreens is. This is unacceptable! Feel free to send this into Fox2 Chris!  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 24, 2023 14:20:36 GMT -6
BRTN I think you nailed it....dry dry dry! Not good when you've got dust blowing in mid to late May.
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Post by bdgwx on May 24, 2023 15:31:38 GMT -6
Ensembles are showing below average precipitation at least through the end of May. Unless we get a surprise deluge that means May is going to end well below average. CPC is saying there is equal chances of above/below average for June. For the June-July-August season they are saying above average precipitation is favored. I don't know. While I do think there is skill in these long range forecasts in general I also think that skill is muted in our region relative to other regions. In other words, I'm taking their above average precipitation expectation for summer with a grain of salt.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 24, 2023 16:07:19 GMT -6
BRTN I think you nailed it....dry dry dry! Not good when you've got dust blowing in mid to late May. I started getting concerned when I noticed the grass showing heat stress in April/early May...don't think I've ever seen that in my life. I also don't remember the jet being so consistently far north this early, either. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 24, 2023 19:33:05 GMT -6
I know we're moving to an El Nińo; I even heard one description of it as a "super El Nińo."
I've heard 2 third-party reports that next winter will have even bigger snowfalls for the Sierra and the Central Rockies than the winter of 2022/23 but I don't know their sources
Has anyone seen any sort of authoritative prediction for next winter yet?
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 25, 2023 10:07:11 GMT -6
BRTN I think you nailed it....dry dry dry! Not good when you've got dust blowing in mid to late May. I started getting concerned when I noticed the grass showing heat stress in April/early May...don't think I've ever seen that in my life. I also don't remember the jet being so consistently far north this early, either. Yea, a massive shift has certainly taken place. I guess the one good thing is that the West and Northern Plains are seeing lots of rain and storms. Kansas and Nebraska sure are dry still though. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 25, 2023 10:37:10 GMT -6
I’m desperate so I’m choosing to believe this  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 25, 2023 10:47:46 GMT -6
I’m desperate so I’m choosing to believe this Interesting pattern change on the ensembles into June with a major retrograde of the longwave pattern across N America and the NE PAC and NW ATL basins...would seem to favor NW flow aloft and possible MCS train |
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Post by bdgwx on May 25, 2023 10:55:05 GMT -6
I know we're moving to an El Nińo; I even heard one description of it as a "super El Nińo." I've heard 2 third-party reports that next winter will have even bigger snowfalls for the Sierra and the Central Rockies than the winter of 2022/23 but I don't know their sources Has anyone seen any sort of authoritative prediction for next winter yet? El Nino's typically bring higher snow and rain chances to California and the southern states. The 2022/23 winter was a bit unusual since we were still in the La Nina phase. Take the super El Nino predictions with a grain of salt for now. The so-called spring forecast barrier means ENSO forecast skill is relatively low. It starts approving in June and throughout the summer though. The last super El Nino was in 2016. It would be very unusual for another to develop only 7-8 years later. |
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Post by REB on May 25, 2023 18:54:45 GMT -6
Rain……. I want rain.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 25, 2023 19:16:42 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 25, 2023 20:14:49 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 26, 2023 5:38:02 GMT -6
Dave going with a long hot Summer and dry. Surprised? July might be the only month with some reprieve, but we'll see.
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Post by cardsnweather on May 26, 2023 6:07:28 GMT -6
Dave going with a long hot Summer and dry. Surprised? July might be the only month with some reprieve, but we'll see. A decent July would negate a long, hot summer. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 27, 2023 11:04:01 GMT -6
This has got to be the worst stretch of dry, boring weather this time of year that I've ever seen. I guess 2012 was similar, although I feel like this year is even drier to date.
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Post by REB on May 27, 2023 11:09:41 GMT -6
This has got to be the worst stretch of dry, boring weather this time of year that I've ever seen. I guess 2012 was similar, although I feel like this year is even drier to date. I hate this. Way too dry. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 27, 2023 11:14:05 GMT -6
Did the math...for the MAM(met spring) period, 2012 was nearly 3" ahead of this year, to date. Not a good start to the growing season...the crops are in trouble if we don't get rain soon.
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Post by jmg378s on May 27, 2023 11:58:54 GMT -6
This has got to be the worst stretch of dry, boring weather this time of year that I've ever seen. I guess 2012 was similar, although I feel like this year is even drier to date. The active jetstream we saw beginning of Spring just disappeared in May. If we don't make up some ground in rain soon we'll be asking how many 100 degree days we see rather than if. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 27, 2023 12:34:56 GMT -6
This has got to be the worst stretch of dry, boring weather this time of year that I've ever seen. I guess 2012 was similar, although I feel like this year is even drier to date. The active jetstream we saw beginning of Spring just disappeared in May. If we don't make up some ground in rain soon we'll be asking how many 100 degree days we see rather than if. The rapid poleward shift of the jet this late spring is remarkable. If we get out of the backdoor pattern...look out for sure. Luckily, ensembles show a pretty stout NW flow developing towards next weekend and beyond as the rex/omega block pattern breaks down and the wave pattern retrogrades. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 27, 2023 15:50:09 GMT -6
The active jetstream we saw beginning of Spring just disappeared in May. If we don't make up some ground in rain soon we'll be asking how many 100 degree days we see rather than if. The rapid poleward shift of the jet this late spring is remarkable. If we get out of the backdoor pattern...look out for sure. Luckily, ensembles show a pretty stout NW flow developing towards next weekend and beyond as the rex/omega block pattern breaks down and the wave pattern retrogrades. June will be fine, but it's gonna over perform anyway. Already now siding with how bad will this Summer will overachieve 2012 rather then whether it will rival 2012. July and August look like the 6th circle of you know where Might just pull off 30 plus 100*F+ degree days between the 2 months, and even a shot at the coveted 110*F+ day or 2. At least nights will actually be quite pleasant considering with the main humidity thrust being shoved south and east of here. June still show above normal precip on the CPC monthly outlooks but I'm highly doubting that. What I'm looking at and the signs of the global patterns show nothing but dry for us until maybe September. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 27, 2023 20:37:44 GMT -6
I had to start watering my garden, or I won't be able to harvest anything this summer. Bees are stressed too. Not enough rain for plants to produce nectar. Next three weeks will make or break the honey season this year.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 28, 2023 8:02:10 GMT -6
Looks like we may get into a ridge runner pattern towards next weekend and into the following week...finally might get some rain. This coming week looks pretty hit or miss with just a few widely scattered airmass thunderstorms possible.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 28, 2023 10:34:01 GMT -6
It is absolutely gorgeous today! Giving some red meat the smoke treatment today. I hope you all are having an amazing Sunday!  |
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Post by REB on May 29, 2023 14:37:23 GMT -6
May 29 and I’m already tired of watering.
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