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Post by ajd446 on Aug 2, 2023 19:48:55 GMT -6
I mean the north shore of lake of the ozarks is getting slammed. They were no where near this extreme risk
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 19:49:33 GMT -6
 Radar trends are interesting to say the least. I've liked the HRRR in the past. It's not always right, but it usually does a fairly good job. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 19:56:18 GMT -6
you want this flooding rain? You can have it, LOL. I'm trying to find where I thought I read it was an outlier. I did find that the nws mentioned href, if you can access that. No I don't want the flooding. But we could all use some more rain. I guess we either get no rain or flooding, no in between said the atmosphere. 😂 Thanks, I guess then the href is being more reliable with this system. idk....I've read so much in such a short time now. I could not find either reference to the hrrr or the href but I didn't look that hard. I'm guessing all that is out of date by now, as you said, let's sit back and watch the show right? I kind of factored it in heavily when I made mention of my line of concern from Montgomery City to southern IL, but maybe now minutes after creating that post, after seeing several runs of the hrrr and seeing radar trends, maybe I was acting hastily. You certainly know more than I do, what are your thoughts? Would you expect that line on the radar to build north, or to continue sagging south? I'm genuinely curious on what your thoughts are. |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 2, 2023 20:01:38 GMT -6
I believe most will be south as that cluster as diving south already at the lake, but then maybe get some sunrise suprises in the metro.
I would love another half inch to an inch soak in the.metro, that is better than the runoff causing rains.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 20:05:11 GMT -6
No I don't want the flooding. But we could all use some more rain. I guess we either get no rain or flooding, no in between said the atmosphere. 😂 Thanks, I guess then the href is being more reliable with this system. idk....I've read so much in such a short time now. I could not find either reference to the hrrr or the href but I didn't look that hard. I'm guessing all that is out of date by now, as you said, let's sit back and watch the show right? I kind of factored it in heavily when I made mention of my line of concern from Montgomery City to southern IL, but maybe now minutes after creating that post, after seeing several runs of the hrrr and seeing radar trends, maybe I was acting hastily. You certainly know more than I do, what are your thoughts? Would you expect that line on the radar to build north, or to continue sagging south? I'm genuinely curious on what your thoughts are. I appreciate the kind words! You've been doing this weather thing much longer than I have. You have more experience than I do. But based on radar trends I would expect the main axis in Central ish MO right now to move slowly and move slightly SE staying a little bit west of STL county. Each new pulse cell is supposed to move slightly more further east overtime so I imagine we will get clipped eventually. Though it may not be as much rain as once thought. People like BTRN may not get any rain unfortunately and they need it the most. As I type this, there's a less impressive pulse cell about to hit west STL county soon. There's also a very much more impressive cell near Hermann moving ENE toward Troy and O'Fallon. I think it's best to let Chris and NWS continue to forecast this one and I'll watch it unfold. 😂 Major props seriously to Chris and the NWS! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 20:11:17 GMT -6
I believe most will be south as that cluster as diving south already at the lake, but then maybe get some sunrise suprises in the metro. I would love another half inch to an inch soak in the.metro, that is better than the runoff causing rains. Deterministic model guidance, similar to the past couple of nights across the region, is developing a strong 30-40 knot low-level jet nearly orthogonal to the surface boundary. The low-level jet also veers over time, which favors backbuilding/regenerating storms on the
west/northwest flank. Training storms are again a concern, and given similar atmospheric parameters very favorable for efficient rainfall rates (near-record precipitable water values, deep warm cloud depths), very high rainfall values are possible. Fairly widespread 1-3" totals are expected within the watch area, but significantly higher amounts (isolated 6-8+") are possible. I read that as kind of the second wave of storms regenerating, and if that frontal boundary wavers back to the north a bit, we should see more storms to the north of where we are seeing them now. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 20:28:47 GMT -6
More interesting radar trends right now. It will be interesting to see how far northeast the heavy rain axis SW of Columbia, MO right now will move (it may not move that far NE).
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 20:30:37 GMT -6
This is a two phase event. This is phase one and playing out as expected. Phase 2 starts later as the llj ramps up. Steady as she goes; DO NOT let your guard down over night.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 2, 2023 20:33:36 GMT -6
Thank you Beaker for the input. I guess the LLJ has not really kicked in yet
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Aug 2, 2023 20:34:48 GMT -6
This is a two phase event. This is phase one and playing out as expected. Phase 2 starts later as the llj ramps up. Steady as she goes; DO NOT let your guard down over night. Agreed. The LLJ has been kicking after about 11 and cranking up then based on previous nights. Still a very dangerous setup. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 20:44:05 GMT -6
It may just be me and I could be totally wrong, but I think I'm starting to see slight hints of the LLJ starting to kick in on the radar over Franklin County.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 2, 2023 20:55:46 GMT -6
bizarre acting radar returns coming into western JeffCo. WTH
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 20:57:57 GMT -6
I'm going to keep my eye on the area from Mexico to bowling green...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 2, 2023 21:09:06 GMT -6
00z hi red NAM and HRRR   |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 2, 2023 21:14:52 GMT -6
I'm going to keep my eye on the area from Mexico to bowling green... Still a bit early. But I wonder if the heavier bands stay just west of me in Lincoln Co. |
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Post by scmhack on Aug 2, 2023 21:14:59 GMT -6
00z hi red NAM and HRRR Oh now now my basement might not flood. shucks. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 21:15:24 GMT -6
Wow radar trends have been interesting. Crawford and Washington counties are getting hit very hard.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 21:18:41 GMT -6
wow, I was looking at some of the models qpf - one of the hrw models has a 17.07 qpf in next 48 hours...looks to be somewhere south of jefferson city and lake ozark. have no idea how dependable that is. Just worth noting.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 21:20:57 GMT -6
We didn't use to stay up into the night tracking rainstorms. What has happened to us?
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Post by scmhack on Aug 2, 2023 21:26:44 GMT -6
We didn't use to stay up into the night tracking rainstorms. What has happened to us? When we're tracking snowfall total rainfall numbers |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 21:31:34 GMT -6
We didn't use to stay up into the night tracking rainstorms. What has happened to us? When we're tracking snowfall total rainfall numbers good point. it's a lot like tracking a typical snowstorm. Razor sharp demarcation between haves and havenots (in the winter, we'd use the term winners and losers, but I'm not sure that's appropriate tonight); last minute shifts in the axis of forecasted heaviest precip, model variations. Only thing we're missing, is fish coming on here and saying "I'm singing in the rain". |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 2, 2023 21:35:53 GMT -6
That lead complex looks pretty nasty for us southerners. It’s been trying to spin up for a while too, decent area of somewhat broad rotation.
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Post by scmhack on Aug 2, 2023 21:35:57 GMT -6
When we're tracking snowfall total rainfall numbers good point. it's a lot like tracking a typical snowstorm. Razor sharp demarcation between haves and havenots (in the winter, we'd use the term winners and losers, but I'm not sure that's appropriate tonight); last minute shifts in the axis of forecasted heaviest precip, model variations. Only thing we're missing, is fish coming on here and saying "I'm singing in the rain". Snow doesn't flood basements or rip houses off their foundation around here so I'm going to say Loser or In need of help |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 2, 2023 21:38:21 GMT -6
Tough to pinpoint where exactly the axis of excessive rainfall will set up but it looks like roughly along the MO river is favored where low-level convergence is maximized as the LLJ ramps up. The Metro still seems to be in the game for heavy rainfall tonight...I'm doubtful of the minima that the HRRR shows.
We picked up a half inch this morning in Brighton...hope to add to that total overnight
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 21:39:38 GMT -6
Yeah LLJ is starting to kick in! You can see redevelopment and a NW trend of the precip shield on the radar.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 21:43:33 GMT -6
good point. it's a lot like tracking a typical snowstorm. Razor sharp demarcation between haves and havenots (in the winter, we'd use the term winners and losers, but I'm not sure that's appropriate tonight); last minute shifts in the axis of forecasted heaviest precip, model variations. Only thing we're missing, is fish coming on here and saying "I'm singing in the rain". Snow doesn't flood basements or rip houses off their foundation around here so I'm going to say Loser or In need of help That's my primary reason for watching this. I have family out in Warren County as well as St. Charles. I am very concerned about them, as well as my own backyard, but especially family in Warren County. None had water in basements last year, but I'm not certain any of us were in the axis of maxima precip...and I'm dubious of qpfs, especially with the razor sharp demarcation of "loser or in need of help". |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 21:44:08 GMT -6
A true thunder shower in Belleville, can hear the rain and long rolling thunder.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Aug 2, 2023 21:54:21 GMT -6
It's been continously rolling thunder south of Cedar Hill for the past hour! At least it isn't continuous like it was earlier. Just rain here.
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Post by pbc12871 on Aug 2, 2023 21:57:46 GMT -6
An absolute deluge in Ballwin right now. Definitely going to be problems if it continues at this pace.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 2, 2023 22:04:50 GMT -6
Mmm, thunder
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