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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 2, 2023 2:15:19 GMT -6
Well looks like Lincoln and Pike Co are on the waiting list for the FF watch. Lol
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Post by amstilost on Aug 2, 2023 5:26:00 GMT -6
Sitting at 1.4375" so far overnight 7 miles west of De Soto. No sleeping with the constant thunder from 4am on.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 9:33:04 GMT -6
.53 in a nice soaking rain. I'll take it
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 2, 2023 9:38:45 GMT -6
HREF rain totals the next 24 hours  |
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Post by dmbstl on Aug 2, 2023 10:07:57 GMT -6
1.2 so far. Nothing heavy: just steady here in mid county.
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Post by REB on Aug 2, 2023 10:40:51 GMT -6
.50”
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Aug 2, 2023 11:08:45 GMT -6
.72 here in Lake St. Louis
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 2, 2023 11:22:48 GMT -6
Nice shortwave up near Omaha will be our kicker this afternoon. Guessing we will see a watch along and south of 70 later this afternoon and evening.  |
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Post by dschreib on Aug 2, 2023 12:15:33 GMT -6
It maybe isn't really, but can we please start calling this an atmospheric river? I miss that phrase.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Aug 2, 2023 13:37:30 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete recorded .61" I was watching the radar and expected a significantly higher reading. More please.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 2, 2023 13:41:14 GMT -6
Looking long range for a bit... It's looking more like that the middle of August (8-19th) could be quite cool at times for Summer. Dare I say 'almost' hoodie weather. Might be a couple days there that don't get out of the 70s with lows flirting into the low 50s especially away from the city. Does look like we do heat up again for late August (after the 20th into Labor Day before we might see another impressive early fall shot of cooler air. Summer's back won't be that hard to break for the central US, though the eastern and western third of the US might be a different story! Now back to concerns over tonight into Thursday AM's flooding event...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 14:49:54 GMT -6
Lots of agreement on tonight's events. Going to be a long 18 hours for quite a few folks tonight.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 2, 2023 14:52:37 GMT -6
I added another .063" to this mornings total after some light rain then a 3 minute deluge about 45 minutes ago. 1.5" total, so far.
Edit: I noticed I didn't hit send when I was typing the update. I hit post before correcting it. This was around 10am I believe.
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Post by dschreib on Aug 2, 2023 15:01:25 GMT -6
Marissa Swingset Davis: 0.48"
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 15:29:57 GMT -6
From St Clair County IL EMA
"We have just completed a call with the National Weather Service concerning evening severe storms and overnight flooding. We are on the border of the area expected to receive Severe Thunderstorms with high winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes tonight between 6pm-12am. Then after midnight, we are in the path of heavy rainfall (1”-3” per hour) which could exceed 6”-8” by the time it is over. The National Weather Service described this system as very similar to the storm system that struck and flooded our area July 26, 2022 and indicated the path of the system is looking very similar. Please see the attached slides that they have currently provided and we will forward any additional that we receive."
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 2, 2023 16:18:54 GMT -6
My HOA never came out and cleaned the culvert grate behind our house. This will be fun seeing how high the water gets. Hopefully if it doesn't all fall in a couple hours it won't flood too bad.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 2, 2023 16:36:54 GMT -6
Severe watch coming soon per an MD
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 2, 2023 17:55:25 GMT -6
Looks like the watch will be along hwy 70 and to the south. We shall see.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 2, 2023 18:16:16 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 2, 2023 18:37:38 GMT -6
I hate to see it. If it was winter, it would bust |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 2, 2023 18:37:56 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 2, 2023 19:00:46 GMT -6
Until 3am  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 19:14:46 GMT -6
What I see, is if I drew a line from Montgomery City, MO to Mt. Vernon IL; either side of the line by 30 miles....seems prime for a high impact flash flood event. If you had flash flooding in July, 2022; this seems like a redux. Locations in this area could see 6 or more inches of rain. I would not be surprised to see 10 to 12 inches of rain, or more in areas like Waterloo, New Athens, Red Bud, Marissa, IL...possibly as far north as Scott AFB and Belleville, IL. Sharp cutoff outside the 60 mile wide corridor to just garden variety rainfall amounts.
On that note, I'd sure like to trim the western edge of my concern area...I don't believe Montgomery City, nor Warrenton need any more rain. But that is extremely wishful thinking. I think we are in for it, even IMBY here in O'Fallon. A long night is in store. I fully expect my phone to go off with a flash flood emergency.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 19:16:40 GMT -6
Anyone get a look at the latest HRRR runs? 😂 Classic immediate STL (St. Louis County) metro dry donut hole. It's just one model, time to let the atmosphere run its course. Just thought it was comical.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 19:19:14 GMT -6
HRRRR has been insisting on a south of 70 event last few hours. I'm not buying it....at all. I thought I read somewhere that it was an outlier. But of course, I really don't know.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 19:21:31 GMT -6
HRRRR has been insisting on a south of 70 event last few hours. I'm not buying it....at all. I thought I read somewhere that it was an outlier. Good to hear the NWS thinks it's an outlier. Time to grab a seat and see what happens. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 19:23:24 GMT -6
HRRRR has been insisting on a south of 70 event last few hours. I'm not buying it....at all. I thought I read somewhere that it was an outlier. Makes sense! Good to hear it's an outlier. Thanks beaker! you want this flooding rain? You can have it, LOL. I'm trying to find where I thought I read it was an outlier. I did find that the nws mentioned href, if you can access that. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 2, 2023 19:40:08 GMT -6
Makes sense! Good to hear it's an outlier. Thanks beaker! you want this flooding rain? You can have it, LOL. I'm trying to find where I thought I read it was an outlier. I did find that the nws mentioned href, if you can access that. No I don't want the flooding. But we could all use some more rain. I guess we either get no rain or flooding, no in between said the atmosphere. 😂 Thanks, I guess then the href is being more reliable with this system. |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 2, 2023 19:45:38 GMT -6
I have a gut feeling its going to favor mostly west and southwest of the metro thats where it seems to be forming for now. Not seeing how its going to move more north into the metro with outflows.shifting south
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 2, 2023 19:48:08 GMT -6
yeah, radar trends seem to more closely resemble hrrr, now.
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