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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 4, 2023 18:20:48 GMT -6
That complex has produced multiple confirmed tornadoes. Including one in progress.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 4, 2023 18:52:31 GMT -6
How does the Severe threat for the metro look for us tonight from this?
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Post by amstilost on Aug 4, 2023 19:24:54 GMT -6
Again, not bashing, but my point forecast is now back up to a 60% chance of Thunderstorms Likely. I just do not understand this type of messaging. How can you expect the general public to follow this?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 19:28:04 GMT -6
Again, not bashing, but my point forecast is now back up to a 60% chance of Thunderstorms Likely. I just do not understand this type of messaging. How can you expect the general public to follow this? Believe it or not, the weather does change...as does the forecast |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 19:56:11 GMT -6
Nasty looking storms out west...CAMs hold onto 1500j/kg+ SBCAPE along I-70 into tonight...could be a severe threat into the Metro tonight as those move through with enhanced shear from the MCV raising the tornado potential
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Post by dragons7stegen on Aug 4, 2023 19:59:27 GMT -6
What general direction does that complex by Jeff City seem to take? Is it going to dive southeast like the other night or stay chugging more easterly with not as much of a southeast orientation? We could spare another night of limbs and trees down , down this way.
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SLITHIS
Weather Weenie
O'Fallon, IL
Posts: 33 
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Post by SLITHIS on Aug 4, 2023 20:04:02 GMT -6
I'm tired of those cheering for severe weather....tonight's MCS break off should just about finish my house off. Last Saturday dropped a 46", 100' tulip into my place. I'd post a picture but the archaic 14 step process isn't worth it. It was posted on Higgins Twitter so go there if you're interested.
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SLITHIS
Weather Weenie
O'Fallon, IL
Posts: 33
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Post by SLITHIS on Aug 4, 2023 20:05:18 GMT -6
"tree"
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SLITHIS
Weather Weenie
O'Fallon, IL
Posts: 33
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Post by SLITHIS on Aug 4, 2023 20:16:37 GMT -6
Oops, forgot. Better ask the Brighton dude or Biscan before you reply....maybe the hotel auditor will help.
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Post by dragons7stegen on Aug 4, 2023 20:19:22 GMT -6
Based on radar trends looks like it might stay just north and north east of where the last storm damage was couple nights back. That seems to want to put Union and some part of Jefferson County in its path. What are the experts in here seeing with that cell?
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Post by tedrick65 on Aug 4, 2023 20:20:18 GMT -6
Oops, forgot. Better ask the Brighton dude or Biscan before you reply....maybe the hotel auditor will help. Really dude? BTW, If you are on your phone with Tapatalk, you can post a picture directly. Otherwise, upload it anyplace that will give you a link. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 20:31:04 GMT -6
Oops, forgot. Better ask the Brighton dude or Biscan before you reply....maybe the hotel auditor will help. You just dropped as many posts as you've made in the last 9 years...lol |
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SLITHIS
Weather Weenie
O'Fallon, IL
Posts: 33
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Post by SLITHIS on Aug 4, 2023 20:50:08 GMT -6
Sorry, currently have a bullseye on my vicinity....I'm sure not the first.
Thanks...to all...see you in 9 years.
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Aug 4, 2023 20:54:23 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 4, 2023 21:02:35 GMT -6
just for kicks, I looked at the cfs. I see the 540 kissing the Great Lakes and the New England states around the first of September, with some 50s for nighttime lows in our area that week. Hard to believe that we are weeks away from seeing temperatures starting to fall. I think brtn called it right when he said we were going to be close to the mcs train this summer. I think El Ninos the past couple decades have allowed for Summer to begin to break on time, but I don't have any statistics to back that up.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 4, 2023 21:14:12 GMT -6
severe watch has been extended into the metro
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 4, 2023 21:43:51 GMT -6
Will it extend into IL... stay tuned.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 4, 2023 21:58:27 GMT -6
Again, not bashing, but my point forecast is now back up to a 60% chance of Thunderstorms Likely. I just do not understand this type of messaging. How can you expect the general public to follow this? Believe it or not, the weather does change...as does the forecast  I was just referring to the big swings in 6,8,10 hours. Not necessarily rainfall, but 2 of the most recent swings have been with severe weather. I haven't really followed the models except for the big qpf outputs so I don't know if they have been bouncing all over a few days out. |
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Post by jeepers on Aug 4, 2023 22:28:24 GMT -6
Severe thunderstorm warning just now. Figures, I have a plane to catch tomorrow and should be sleeping…
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 4, 2023 22:36:35 GMT -6
Tornado warning issued
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 4, 2023 22:39:02 GMT -6
tornado sirens going off in O'Fallon, MO
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 4, 2023 22:39:21 GMT -6
continuous lightning
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 4, 2023 22:49:34 GMT -6
Believe it or not, the weather does change...as does the forecast I was just referring to the big swings in 6,8,10 hours. Not necessarily rainfall, but 2 of the most recent swings have been with severe weather. I haven't really followed the models except for the big qpf outputs so I don't know if they have been bouncing all over a few days out. my personal opinion...models have not done real well with the repeating nature of the event. Of course, the flash flood guidance is very low in many areas, especially that corridor from around Jeff City to Cape Girardeau, where recent heavy rains have saturated the soils. |
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Post by jeepers on Aug 4, 2023 22:59:40 GMT -6
At least the tornado warning box dropped. Distant thunder…
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Post by jeepers on Aug 4, 2023 23:01:48 GMT -6
Rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 4, 2023 23:18:19 GMT -6
A bit of rain...mostly bark, not much bite.
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Aug 4, 2023 23:19:47 GMT -6
Humidity has shot up. Distant lightning. Excited here in shrewsbury!
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Post by REB on Aug 5, 2023 6:01:46 GMT -6
.90”
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 5, 2023 6:04:26 GMT -6
How much rain did St.Peters Get, I have over 2 inches in the gauge and it was empty last night but the wind leaned it over so not sure what really fell locally.
Also Dardene creek is rising rapidly.
I am in the willot rd area and spencer.
Did st.peters get dumped on last night as I slept through most of it.
My yard is a swamp
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 5, 2023 6:10:01 GMT -6
How much rain did St.Peters Get, I have over 2 inches in the gauge and it was empty last night but the wind leaned it over so not sure what really fell locally. Also Dardene creek is rising rapidly. I am in the willot rd area and spencer. Did st.peters get dumped on last night as I slept through most of it. My yard is a swamp Yep, big ol storm! |
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I was just referring to the big swings in 6,8,10 hours. Not necessarily rainfall, but 2 of the most recent swings have been with severe weather. I haven't really followed the models except for the big qpf outputs so I don't know if they have been bouncing all over a few days out. 
