|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 19, 2023 4:58:57 GMT -6
Just saw a bright green meteor moving east to west near Ste. Gen! Hopefully someone else saw it too.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Sept 19, 2023 7:59:26 GMT -6
Just saw a bright green meteor moving east to west near Ste. Gen! Hopefully someone else saw it too. My wife saw it while we were driving in--looking west, I believe. She commented about the color of it. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 19, 2023 10:51:06 GMT -6
Just saw a bright green meteor moving east to west near Ste. Gen! Hopefully someone else saw it too. My wife saw it while we were driving in--looking west, I believe. She commented about the color of it. Always good to know I'm not hallucinating! It was spectacular - bright green with a trail of yellowish sparks behind it. It persisted a good 5 seconds. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 19, 2023 11:45:44 GMT -6
Tomorrow night looks potentially soggy for someone. Possibly a few inches of rain could fall pretty much anywhere in the Bi-State area, but metro area and points south look to have the best odds right now. Looks like a 12AM to 6AM Thursday morning timing at this point. Also got my Covid and Flu shots today, gonna be sore on both arms tomorrow. -_-
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 19, 2023 15:20:11 GMT -6
Why is there *always* a sharp gradient through the bi-state...lol |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 19, 2023 20:42:39 GMT -6
Why is there *always* a sharp gradient through the bi-state...lol Realistically, this map says don’t bother using the ENSO in isolation to examine correlations with annual snowfall in the STL area. Those R values are soooooooo low. Even in Chicago in the deep purple, it’s pretty weak. The color scheme makes it look way more impressive than it is in reality. Need more data points (power), additional/better explanatory variables, etc. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 19, 2023 20:58:33 GMT -6
I prefer a dart board myself.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Sept 19, 2023 21:38:02 GMT -6
I prefer a dart board myself. And your blind folded throwing the darts haha! You can count on the atmosphere keeping us humble with long range forecasts. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 20, 2023 11:50:59 GMT -6
Boy, this rain just DOES NOT want to come in to the metro area. It's sitting out to the southwest just taunting us.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 20, 2023 13:55:07 GMT -6
Aaaand, it dries up...
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Sept 20, 2023 16:18:31 GMT -6
Glen's doing his fall forecast this evening.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 20, 2023 17:45:34 GMT -6
I hope this verifies  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 20, 2023 17:49:54 GMT -6
I hope this verifies If today's underperformer is any indication...I'm gonna go with a hard doubtful. The drought is starting to flex it's muscles again it seems. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 20, 2023 17:58:06 GMT -6
Glen's doing his fall forecast this evening. And introducing the new meteorologist. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 20, 2023 19:48:39 GMT -6
I'm guessing there will be a higher potential for snowfall this upcoming winter than what we've seen all summer long. I attribute that to the upcoming tilt of the rotational axis of the earth. Now, whether that potential delivers, anymore that's anybody's guess. Even being placed under a wintestorm watch in the wintertime has become more of a gamble. Who's up for some non-betting over/under? What number do we start with, and for what categories?
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 20, 2023 19:58:55 GMT -6
Some ideas:
Number of winterstorm watches
number of winterstorm warnings
inches of snow measured at a mutually agreed upon locale
number of below 0 nights/days
number of tornado watches
highest windgust at a mutually agreed upon locale
Highest temperature recorded during a timeframe
Lowest temperature recorded during a timeframe
Rainfall amount
number of record highs
number of record lows
number of days with recorded snowfall
number of days with recorded rainfall
I can go on and on. Has to be a reliable statistic at a mutually agreed upon location (I propose using Lambert, because those stats are easily accessible).
Somebody chime in on what numbers to use, or we can probably use average stats as provided.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Sept 20, 2023 20:06:04 GMT -6
Why is there *always* a sharp gradient through the bi-state...lol Realistically, this map says don’t bother using the ENSO in isolation to examine correlations with annual snowfall in the STL area. Those R values are soooooooo low. Even in Chicago in the deep purple, it’s pretty weak. The color scheme makes it look way more impressive than it is in reality. Need more data points (power), additional/better explanatory variables, etc. Yep. This matches my own research. ENSO just isn't an effective predictor for our area. It is also important to note that the relationship between ENSO and atmospheric coupling is breaking down. What is happening is that the ENSO 3.4 region has actually been cooling since 1979 while simultaneously the rest of the ocean has been warming significantly. This amplifies the effect of La Nina and attenuates the effect of El Nino relative to the global average. Scientists are aware of this effect and have create the RONI index to help address it. The ONI for July was 1.1 while the RONI was only 0.6. The point is to be careful with the graphic I posted above. Our previous experience may not an effective predictor anymore. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 21, 2023 9:54:29 GMT -6
Agree with the drought taking hold and yesterday's measly dust settler is a sign of the times. Looking at the US drought monitor, I can't recall seeing severe drought in Louisiana before...or at least not that I can recall.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Sept 21, 2023 10:43:42 GMT -6
A new record low on the Mississippi River is forecast at New Madrid around October 1st. At Caruthersville it could occur as soon as September 28th.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Sept 21, 2023 11:45:35 GMT -6
Some ideas: Number of winterstorm watches number of winterstorm warnings inches of snow measured at a mutually agreed upon locale number of below 0 nights/days number of tornado watches highest windgust at a mutually agreed upon locale Highest temperature recorded during a timeframe Lowest temperature recorded during a timeframe Rainfall amount number of record highs number of record lows number of days with recorded snowfall number of days with recorded rainfall I can go on and on. Has to be a reliable statistic at a mutually agreed upon location (I propose using Lambert, because those stats are easily accessible). Somebody chime in on what numbers to use, or we can probably use average stats as provided. Number of almost snow, but actually sleet or cold rain events in Marissa. |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Sept 21, 2023 13:27:07 GMT -6
Can someone post a video to the fall forecast if it’s ok I missed it.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Sept 21, 2023 16:26:17 GMT -6
Quick 1 inch of rain in my area of st.peters near spencer and willot.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Sept 21, 2023 17:51:49 GMT -6
0.41 so far in Marissa. Pouring.
|
|
savunma
Weather Weenie
Granite City
Posts: 72 
Snowfall Events: 11/16/14 - 1.5"
|
Post by savunma on Sept 21, 2023 19:26:45 GMT -6
Couple decent cracks of thunder but only .02”
to show for it.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 21, 2023 19:54:12 GMT -6
0.41 so far in Marissa. Pouring. We had 4.1 inches out here at the rec area and 2 miles north into town we only had 1.7 ….. Also we have a lot of tree limbs down ….. this storm should have had a warning…. Also…… Sparta Fire M/A Tilden Fire Marissa Fire Baldwin Fire MedStar Ambulance Sparta Police Randolph County Sheriff Multiple Campers Blown Over, Unknown if Occupied Shooting Complex |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Sept 21, 2023 20:12:09 GMT -6
0.41 so far in Marissa. Pouring. We had 4.1 inches out here at the rec area and 2 miles north into town we only had 1.7 ….. Also we have a lot of tree limbs down ….. this storm should have had a warning…. Also…… Sparta Fire M/A Tilden Fire Marissa Fire Baldwin Fire MedStar Ambulance Sparta Police Randolph County Sheriff Multiple Campers Blown Over, Unknown if Occupied Shooting Complex Definitely some rotation in the storm south of town. There was a little over by Lively Grove, too. |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Sept 21, 2023 20:12:42 GMT -6
1.46” at the homestead
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 21, 2023 23:10:53 GMT -6
Zip...
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 22, 2023 5:48:29 GMT -6
Nada! We did get a little shower Wed night though. Just enough to make it humid yesterday. |
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Sept 22, 2023 7:19:18 GMT -6
0.96 between last night and this morning in High Ridge
|
|
