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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 1, 2024 12:09:39 GMT -6
Good riddance to 2023  Yes, please no repeat this yr! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 1, 2024 12:09:50 GMT -6
This past year has truly been the worst year of weather I've ever seen.
Let's hope things turn around in 2024...it looks like it could
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 13:08:10 GMT -6
So are we not talking about the blizzard the 12z euro shows for the metro?
That is a violent winter storm. 982mb low in southern Illinois.
I would like to see the thermo profile improve, but would imagine the cold sector would draw in efficiently with that strength.
A great run to see at this range.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 1, 2024 13:30:00 GMT -6
So are we not talking about the blizzard the 12z euro shows for the metro? That is a violent winter storm. 982mb low in southern Illinois. I would like to see the thermo profile improve, but would imagine the cold sector would draw in efficiently with that strength. A great run to see at this range. It's still 8 days out...wish it were 2 or 3, lol The trend for the lead storm this weekend has been south...would be nice to see some southern shifts with the big storm at this range. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 1, 2024 13:43:24 GMT -6
That 12z Euro looks đ as WSC said 982 goes 978 as it passes high winds, and looks to be loading another storm at the end of the run...keeping the faith only 7.5 days to go!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 1, 2024 14:11:22 GMT -6
Still a good look to the EPS Good to see the multiple chances of snow appearing across multiple members  |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 1, 2024 14:29:11 GMT -6
WSC how much snow does EURO show?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 14:34:39 GMT -6
WSC how much snow does EURO show? 6-10 inches with the heaviest amounts on the Illinois side. Verbatim, surface temperatures are a bit marginal so in this run actual accumulations would probably be closer to 4-6 inches. Itâs a week out though, so the numbers are all imaginary and only matter to convey potential magnitude. It was a great run. Snowstorm posted all the ensemble members as well to show you all the variable accumulation outcomes. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 1, 2024 14:50:11 GMT -6
Overall look of an active pattern for the first two weeks+ of January. No matter the outcome, there will be plenty to keep tabs on the next several weeks. It will most definitely not be slow going.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 1, 2024 15:01:59 GMT -6
Overall look of an active pattern for the first two weeks+ of January. No matter the outcome, there will be plenty to keep tabs on the next several weeks. It will most definitely not be slow going. Music to our ears...out with the boring! |
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 1, 2024 15:16:58 GMT -6
One of our regular contributors needs prayers for their family. Although not named, please send good thoughts and wishes. Thanks Reb. My mom will probably a lying not be here much longer. So rough time ahead. Thank you guys. Prayers sent Snowman. |
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Post by thechaser on Jan 1, 2024 16:01:32 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 1, 2024 16:46:07 GMT -6
The 2nd storm (mid-week) after the 1st storm this weekend looks to be better for us.
Let's just hope one doesn't go too far south and then 2nd storm going way north. Leaving us in the dead zone.
I'd rather be in the danger zone with lyrics by Kenny Loggins.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 1, 2024 17:23:54 GMT -6
Let's just hope one doesn't go too far south and then 2nd storm going way north. Leaving us in the dead zone. That is very possible and would be the expectation. Just consider ourselves lucky if it doesn't. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 1, 2024 17:32:48 GMT -6
Let's just hope one doesn't go too far south and then 2nd storm going way north. Leaving us in the dead zone. That is very possible and would be the expectation. Just consider ourselves lucky if it doesn't. Unfortunately this looks like the most likely outcome at this point. Lots of ingredients on the table for the rest of the month though. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 1, 2024 17:42:59 GMT -6
I personally do not have a good feeling about this weather pattern. I expect to have very little wintry precip, and possibly need to watch more of a severe weather threat if any of them become cutters.
For someone like me I want snow for the snow removal business I am in, but having all of the equipment amd never using it makes it almost pointless to keep anymore.
If anything I hope we get rains and elimnate our drought by summer.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 17:54:39 GMT -6
Pattern looks fun and extremely active so have to strongly disagree with the above.
We are storm diversified, so I feel good about it.
If you want snow on snow or any hope of having it on the ground for an extended period, this shotgun approach followed by potential extreme cold is what you need.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 1, 2024 18:04:30 GMT -6
I hope you are right WSC, I have just learned to become pretty Meh with winter weather this far south.
I hope for snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 18:19:14 GMT -6
I hope you are right WSC, I have just learned to become pretty Meh with winter weather this far south. I hope for snow. Well yeah, given the region you should always bet against snow. But, I enjoy tracking these things even knowing the majority of the time it wonât workout. This pattern will give us a lot to track and decent odds of something hitting. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 1, 2024 20:17:08 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is trending towards some winter love for late this week into the weekend. I know some of you have been talking about it at times already. And then there is that Jan 10-15 window. That could be fun... or agonizingly close... followed by winter heartache. It's not a STL winter if there's no heartache! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 1, 2024 20:23:28 GMT -6
Prayers to you, your Mom, and family Snowman. If we do get snow, hoping that Union is the jack pot zone for one of the storms!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 1, 2024 20:27:51 GMT -6
Today was just one of those days when the thick Jan stratus rules the day and the forecast highs are too warm and bust by 5-7*!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 1, 2024 21:20:39 GMT -6
The experimental "Risk of heavy snow" map has been posted to Facebook by a TV meteorologist in central Illinois without any of the caveats that should go with it. Wonder if he'll post a giant "Oops! I goofed" mea culpa if the thing falls flat
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 1, 2024 21:24:39 GMT -6
I hope you are right WSC, I have just learned to become pretty Meh with winter weather this far south. I hope for snow. Well yeah, given the region you should always bet against snow. But, I enjoy tracking these things even knowing the majority of the time it wonât workout. This pattern will give us a lot to track and decent odds of something hitting. WSC I totally agree. I am for one so glad we finally have some good wobbling going on in the jet stream. Problem that I'm seeing at this stage is. Like many times before, the jet is screaming and wanting to take these storms in and out before they have time to dig and neg tilt. No time to close off in time, before ejecting into left field. Always need that perfect link. Cold looks to finally pour south a bit in the coming weeks. I just like you and many others on here, am super stoked at seeing some active weather. Things just need not get too outta hand in the nose bleed section. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 1, 2024 22:22:54 GMT -6
Gfs and i think it was Icon want to bring weekend storm further back to the northwest a bit. Positive move for us.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 22:23:59 GMT -6
00z ggem remains the northwest outlier for next week.
00z gfs is joining team euro with a 978 mb low in southeastern Missouri.
That is crazy.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 1, 2024 22:25:44 GMT -6
Saturday storm south. Maybe southern viewers get some flakes. Need a major turnaround for any hope there.
Tuesday system is a cutter on the Canadian. GFS has a 978 Low in the bootheel / northern Ark and mostly rain until we get on the good side. But thenâŠwowza.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 22:27:25 GMT -6
00z gfs has a death band at hours 186 and 189.
Would be some insanely heavy snow in the metro followed by strong winds.
Unbelievable run
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 1, 2024 22:29:50 GMT -6
Now that gfs run is intense. Of all the things weâve seen over the years that we would say looks like a certain event 42 years ago, this would have to be the most comparable. Too bad we are 180 hours out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2024 22:42:54 GMT -6
Now that gfs run is intense. Of all the things weâve seen over the years that we would say looks like a certain event 42 years ago, this would have to be the most comparable. Too bad we are 180 hours out. This is a pretty different setup in my opinion. It is very rare to have a low this deep anywhere near STL. 1982 wasnât a really deep low. The heavy rain to heavy snow similarity is there though. Just not the same synoptic setup. |
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