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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 9:05:33 GMT -6
We're starting to get into the range of the UKMET. It has the Jan 9th storm, but it is much further south and weaker. Cyclogenesis starts in Mexico and tracks through Texas and Louisiana. St. Louis might not see any precipitation at all of out of it if pans out this way. In a weird way I'm pleased to see a southern track to balance the out the more northerly tracks we've been seeing from the GFS and ECMWF. That gives me some hope that this storm isn't going to cut north leaving us in the warm sector.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 2, 2024 9:09:25 GMT -6
GFS run is one for the record books. 7 days out. A lot can and will change. But, 40-50 mph winds and heavy snow. Classic looking southern storm that digs through the 4 corners and ejects out of the Panhandle region...lock it in! The good news is a northern trend hasn't showed it's face yet. Models are digging the mid-level system pretty far south before ejecting out. Been a while since we've had a healthy winter panhandle low. |
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40 
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Post by kkwhit on Jan 2, 2024 9:10:52 GMT -6
Weather family. It is with a very heavy heart I have to say my mom has now passed. She was loved and was a great mom to me and my sister. Married 56 years to my dad who now needs all the support he can get from his kids. Sorry to hear this for you and your family. Lots of love to all of you. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 9:21:32 GMT -6
The bulk of the energy for the Jan. 9th storm is up there around the Aleutian Islands. A cyclone is currently bombing out and is forecasted to drop down to 936 mb today. For point of comparison the record is 925 mb set in 2021 so this is pretty potent.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 9:25:44 GMT -6
The track of the energy goes through a no-mans-land of sorts in terms of trans-Pacific flights so there may not be much in the way of upper air data aside from satellite (which is a lot) as it evolves. I did see a rumor on AmericanWX that NOAA will be doing recon flights over the Pacific this winter. I don't see anything scheduled right now, but I'd image if models continue to show a potent storm this would necessitate missions in the near term.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 2, 2024 9:26:28 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2024 9:31:36 GMT -6
Sorry Snowman. Your Mom will continue to be in spirit with you, your Dad and your family.
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Post by gfrig - Troy, MO on Jan 2, 2024 9:38:10 GMT -6
So very sorry for your loss Snowman.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 9:48:46 GMT -6
I’m very sorry 99.
Sending all my love and condolences
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47 
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Post by Raja72 on Jan 2, 2024 9:51:14 GMT -6
Snowman - So sorry for your loss. Prayers for you and yours during this difficult time.
Also want to thank you for being a beacon of light for this weather family. Your quippy sense of humor is always appreciated, even in your grumpy posts. Kudos to your mom for raising such a wonderful family. Please try to honor her life with the good memories.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 10:10:48 GMT -6
I’m sorry for your loss, Snowman.
We are here for you as you work through this difficult time.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 10:11:59 GMT -6
We're starting to get into the range of the UKMET. It has the Jan 9th storm, but it is much further south and weaker. Cyclogenesis starts in Mexico and tracks through Texas and Louisiana. St. Louis might not see any precipitation at all of out of it if pans out this way. In a weird way I'm pleased to see a southern track to balance the out the more northerly tracks we've been seeing from the GFS and ECMWF. That gives me some hope that this storm isn't going to cut north leaving us in the warm sector. 12z Icon is in this southern camp as well. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 2, 2024 10:22:18 GMT -6
Funky run from the GFS. Marginal temp profiles and overall a mess. A band of heavy snow for some. Not so much for anyone else. Still puts the Low at 980-985 and through the bootheel though.
Canadian still north / west from KC to Chicago.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 10:27:04 GMT -6
Funky run from the GFS. Marginal temp profiles and overall a mess. A band of heavy snow for some. Not so much for anyone else. Still puts the Low at 980-985 and through the bootheel though. Canadian still north / west from KC to Chicago. Conceptually, I’ll take the 12z gfs run all day at this range. Does show we might see a narrow “death band” rob from the lighter snows. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 10:32:19 GMT -6
That is a very complex setup on the GFS. It shows cyclogenesis starting in Kansas and rapidly moving into Minnesota. This draws a lot of warm air up into Missouri. Then we see a 2nd round of cyclogenesis starting in Texas and tracking through the benchmark. The problem is the 1st round draws up so much warm air that the thermal profile ends up being meh for the 2nd round. There are a lot of elements in play here. We're probably going to see a lot of model-to-model and run-to-run noise until we get closer to the event.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 2, 2024 10:32:33 GMT -6
Sorry for your loss Snowman. I went through that 7 years ago and while extremely tough, know that it does get easier with time.
Not a bad look on the GFS. If the temps are that close and the low bombs out as shown, it will take care of itself in terms of snow. Long ways to go. We have to get the focus on the southern vort/cyclogenesis.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 2, 2024 10:32:38 GMT -6
Weather family. It is with a very heavy heart I have to say my mom has now passed. She was loved and was a great mom to me and my sister. Married 56 years to my dad who now needs all the support he can get from his kids. Sorry for your family's loss, 99. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 10:33:25 GMT -6
Nice to see the gfs and ggem continuing to show towards the 12th as well.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 10:33:58 GMT -6
We're starting to get into the range of the UKMET. It has the Jan 9th storm, but it is much further south and weaker. Cyclogenesis starts in Mexico and tracks through Texas and Louisiana. St. Louis might not see any precipitation at all of out of it if pans out this way. In a weird way I'm pleased to see a southern track to balance the out the more northerly tracks we've been seeing from the GFS and ECMWF. That gives me some hope that this storm isn't going to cut north leaving us in the warm sector. 12z Icon is in this southern camp as well. I'm okay with that. It balances out the northern camp shown by the CMC. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 327
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Post by bob on Jan 2, 2024 10:36:40 GMT -6
Reading all this but sounds like does not look as good gor us today is that everyone is saying?
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Post by blueblood on Jan 2, 2024 10:37:11 GMT -6
Weather family. It is with a very heavy heart I have to say my mom has now passed. She was loved and was a great mom to me and my sister. Married 56 years to my dad who now needs all the support he can get from his kids. I'm so sorry to hear of your mom passing. Losing a parent is a very difficult time. I know we've never met and I haven't posted much at all...but because of being able to read and enjoy your posts over the years I think of you as a good friend. My prayers are with you and your family. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 10:44:01 GMT -6
Reading all this but sounds like does not look as good gor us today is that everyone is saying? It's just your typical model-to-model and run-to-run noise. We're still at least 7 days out tracking 2 different systems. There really isn't any expectation of snow yet; just tracking a pattern that has the potential for snow. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 10:49:39 GMT -6
12z Ukmet looks good, but run cuts off before the good stuff so doing some extrapolating which is dangerous
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 2, 2024 10:57:57 GMT -6
Weather family. It is with a very heavy heart I have to say my mom has now passed. She was loved and was a great mom to me and my sister. Married 56 years to my dad who now needs all the support he can get from his kids. My condolences on your loss and prayers for you and your family at this difficult time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2024 11:06:55 GMT -6
12z GFS is a beaut from a synoptic standpoint...but one concern as BDGWX pointed out is the amount of WAA ahead of the storm and the strength of the TROWAL which wraps that warm air around. Temps do crash on the backside enough for heavy snowfall, but a lot of the precip would get eaten up as liquid. It's another borderline looking system with no antecedent cold air in place...messy for sure. But the good news is that most model runs are in the southern camp currently and not supporting the cutter solution.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -6
12z Ukmet looks good, but run cuts off before the hood stuff so doing some extrapolating which is dangerous Yeah, it is a significant change vs the 0Z cycle. It has cyclogenesis starting in northern Texas instead of Mexico on this cycle. It's going to be a big jump north. AccuWx has the UKMET out to 168 hours, but it doesn't post until much later in the day. I'll post it once it become available. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2024 11:14:28 GMT -6
Nice to see the gfs and ggem continuing to show towards the 12th as well. Way out there...but that's a classic looking overrunning setup. Pattern continues to look very active into mid-month and likely beyond. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 11:17:07 GMT -6
The 12Z GEFS 850mb low is in about the same spot at hour 168 vs 0Z at hour 180. That spot is north of the benchmark at the moment.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2024 11:21:18 GMT -6
The conceptual setup on all available data keeps interest high for next week. I 100% agree with the need to monitor warm air wrapping around/into this thing. That could make much of if a cold, wind blown rain. But we aren't anywhere close to that being a sure thing either. Just a lot of pieces of the puzzle on the table now that point to at the very least a fun/challenging forecast early next week. I still would not write-off some minor stuff with the Friday night Saturday system. That is the kind of system that dissappears about 4 days out only to surge back on to the scene 48 hours out .
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2024 11:24:26 GMT -6
The 12Z GEFS 850mb low is in about the same spot at hour 168 vs 0Z at hour 180. That spot is north of the benchmark at the moment. I was just going to comment about the GEFS mean showing a warmer and further north track of the GYB features...that's a little concerning |
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