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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2024 11:27:11 GMT -6
I agree with the weekend system, Chris...it's possible models are shearing/opening it up a bit too quickly...but that's definitely been the trend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 11:31:00 GMT -6
The GEFS does look pretty far north with the key features for the system next week
The mean surface low goes almost right over STL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 11:35:41 GMT -6
But as you would expect, the spread in solutions is huge Almost no clustering of the lows  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 11:43:32 GMT -6
But as you would expect, the spread in solutions is huge If the mean is going to be outside the benchmark track then a larger spread is good. It means the probability distribution of the possible tracks has higher tails and thus higher chances of a favorable track. Side note...I wish there was an ensemble product that showed the median track instead of the mean. In terms of probabilistic outcomes the mean track can be distorted by the intensity of the low. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 2, 2024 11:54:59 GMT -6
So sorry for your loss, Snowman.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 12:19:35 GMT -6
But as you would expect, the spread in solutions is huge If the mean is going to be outside the benchmark track then a larger spread is good. It means the probability distribution of the possible tracks has higher tails and thus higher chances of a favorable track. Side note...I wish there was an ensemble product that showed the median track instead of the mean. In terms of probabilistic outcomes the mean track can be distorted by the intensity of the low. Agreed. WxBell recently added percentile snow amounts to its ensembles products which is very useful. The mean can be heavily skewed by a couple outliers. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 2, 2024 12:22:05 GMT -6
Snowman, we are all here with you during this time my friend. Such sad news for your family. We love you and hope your family can mend through the pain with time. 😢❤️
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 12:41:53 GMT -6
The euro is disgusting lol
Just a bunch of cold rain
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 2, 2024 12:44:54 GMT -6
The euro is disgusting lol Just a bunch of cold rain Book it. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 12:47:16 GMT -6
The ECMWF does what the GFS does. It splits the energy allowing two rounds of cyclogenesis that spoils the setup. It does get a big storm going to our east just with lots of warm air that will piss off those on the East Coast wishing for a good snowstorm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 12:47:28 GMT -6
Good news is the euro has the storm and is actually too far south.
Not a great run, but keeps us in the game.
This is an example of when it is nice we have a week to move it back into the sweet spot.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 12:49:46 GMT -6
Euro also just keeps chucking lows at us late next week 😂
It’s like a conveyor belt. Something is going to hit
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2024 13:22:50 GMT -6
Yeah, the EURO drops quite a bit of snow across parts of the region over the next 10+ days...just a constant train of shortwaves
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 13:24:41 GMT -6
12z EPS looks good to me.
Good mean low placement and decent clustering even at hour 168.
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woogie
Weather Weenie
west end of Belleville
Posts: 40 
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Post by woogie on Jan 2, 2024 14:09:12 GMT -6
Love and hugs, 99.She's she is walking and playing with the puppies she's missed so much!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 14:11:08 GMT -6
The EPS does look good so we have that going for us atleast
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 14:15:55 GMT -6
Agreed. The 12Z EPS has the 850 mb low track close to the benchmark with temps below freezing the whole time at least at the airport. If this were 48 hours out I'd be concerned with the track being too far north, but at 168 hours I don't think we have much to gripe about at this stage.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 14:16:55 GMT -6
That’s a lot of big members  |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 2, 2024 14:22:19 GMT -6
But as you would expect, the spread in solutions is huge Almost no clustering of the lows Just 12 states big. Lock it in |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 14:34:25 GMT -6
The 12Z UKMET fights to make a northern low, but by hour 168 you can see that it is going to bury the system in the southeast. If you look closely at the 850 mb chart you'll see a weak closed low near St. Louis, but the height lines (and confirmed by 500 mb vorticity) clearly show the low in Louisiana being dominant. All things considered it is nice to see a southern camp projection in the model suite to balance out the northern camp projections. And it is a step in the right direction vs the 0Z cycle.   |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 2, 2024 14:35:48 GMT -6
So frustrating seeing an absolute bomb that is short of cold air. A sub 980 low moving through the MW during the coldest time of the year and can barely bring teens down on the backside. But, at least it gets the ball rolling as some serious cold moves down later in run.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 2, 2024 14:38:52 GMT -6
If you looked at that GFS run from hours 168-180 without precip maps it is almost textbook.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 14:41:26 GMT -6
Speaking of cold air...it's a bit of an unusual situation where a huge chunk of Canada is almost entirely devoid of snow cover. This happens to the area where the cold dumps often track from Canada into the CONUS. This reduces albedo and increase solar insolation uptake thus slightly warming the boundary layer. It may not have a huge impact in the grand scheme of things but even a +1 C modification to temperatures can spell trouble for the snow lovers in our region.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 2, 2024 14:42:27 GMT -6
Was it last year or the year before that we had one, if not two deformation rains in December? I remember there were a few flakes mixed in with the heavy rain on one of them and it was quite insulting.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 2, 2024 15:56:53 GMT -6
Dm used to call these wasted lows, very typical during el nino years. A 34* rain is always a good bet for us, in any year, lol.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 2, 2024 16:19:04 GMT -6
18z gfs with a jog north.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 2, 2024 16:21:21 GMT -6
Ahhh that’s more like it. 18GFS much further north. (Bootheel to STL surface low movement from 12Z to 18Z). COMO to NEMO crush job. Book it. I know it’s run to run “noise” but can’t help but think that’s how it will turn out.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 2, 2024 16:51:05 GMT -6
It should be pretty dark by now so it must be getting on towards spring! It’ll be ok as long as we get a couple storms before winters end and it all melts!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2024 17:37:11 GMT -6
Another run of the GEFS and another consistent placement of the 850 mb track. It hasn't budged much in the last 7 cycles. The placement...too far north.
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 2, 2024 18:20:00 GMT -6
Zero Confidence.
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