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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 13:27:22 GMT -6
Just glad the atmosphere overachieved and brought 2-3"+ for folks in the immediate metro this past Friday evening! Light snow/flurries on and off here in Wildwood.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 9, 2024 13:28:30 GMT -6
WWA just posted down into JeffCo. Temp rose all night to 42* where it's held most of the day until about 30 minutes ago, down to 38 now in Arnold.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 13:32:04 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles closely resemble the GFS ensembles Have to disagree with you a bit there. The means are similar, but the GEPS has two distinct camps. One is west like the euro and one is east like the gfs. That is true, but I was just going off the mean surface low placement.
The GEFS and CMCE have the mean low in Ohio at hour 84, while the EPS has it in western Indiana
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 9, 2024 13:39:10 GMT -6
Snow has started in Lake St. Louis
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2024 13:46:18 GMT -6
As has been common the last decade temperature is a major problem. The GYB method expects the 0 C isotherm to bisect the 850 mb low at the start with the -5 C isotherm taking it's place at the end. The Euro has the +3 C isotherm bisecting the low (or +7 C bisecting the height contours) as it approaches STL. That would not be ideal even if the track were was closer to the benchmark.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2024 14:07:47 GMT -6
Starting to get a few flakes in far north St. Peters
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 14:08:55 GMT -6
My friend just sent me a video from Colombia
It’s pouring hamsters there with what looks like 2-3” on the ground
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 15:24:38 GMT -6
Beautiful wet salt shaker snow earlier has increased intensity to moderate snow in the last 30 min in Wildwood.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2024 15:39:43 GMT -6
As is often the case with these kinds of storms, the main feature with eow and the mlk system is going to be the wind chills and extreme cold, and not so much snow amounts. Models that show otherwise are probably over amping. Some of us may be in single digits all day monday. Snowfall amounts of 2 inches or under is likely for st louis metro for the weekend systems. The cold is going to be the public headlines.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2024 15:49:38 GMT -6
Moderate snow in Brighton...starting to stick a bit in the grass. 33*
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 9, 2024 16:00:38 GMT -6
Snow mixing in as I get ready to drive home from SAFB.
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 9, 2024 16:09:58 GMT -6
Light snow in Bonne Terre. Temperature now 34 at the house after a high of 41 earlier today. Beneficial rains fell overnight, so I'm not complaining.
Winds are increasing. Settling in for a wintery, snow showery type of evening. I would imagine a few slick spots develop even down here (where no one lives 😉). Gonna start the coffee pot up shortly. Stay warm everyone!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 16:21:51 GMT -6
The 18z GFS has the whole area below -10F Monday morning with wind chills around -30F to -40F
It’s assuming the whole area has a deep snow pack
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 9, 2024 16:32:40 GMT -6
What's left of today's action is really starting to scoot along.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 9, 2024 16:43:29 GMT -6
Just ripping out right now. Beautiful
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 9, 2024 16:51:18 GMT -6
Heaviest snow of the day falling in Lake St Louis. Starting to see a coating on the grass but nothing really exciting
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2024 17:15:59 GMT -6
Looks like both the GEM and GFS ensemble mean track the SLP close to the benchmark with the EPS about 50-75mi further NW. Most solutions support several inches of snowfall on the backside along/N of 70. Hopefully the operational EC is too amped and warm.
Still a good signal for a frontogenetic band of high-ratio snowfall Sunday/Monday on most models, favoring the southern counties with a bitter cold airmass building in behind it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2024 18:35:37 GMT -6
Looks like both the GEM and GFS ensemble mean track the SLP close to the benchmark with the EPS about 50-75mi further NW. Most solutions support several inches of snowfall on the backside along/N of 70. Hopefully the operational EC is too amped and warm. Still a good signal for a frontogenetic band of high-ratio snowfall Sunday/Monday on most models, favoring the southern counties with a bitter cold airmass building in behind it. Just ignoring (for a moment) everything except the 500mb pattern... it has the look of a classic winter storm. Sometimes, the paramaters, like temperatures at 850mb, will start to converge on a more typical look as you get closer to the event. Models often generate all kinds of stuff that is off the wall... like 30+ inches of snow in Missouri! The same could be true of the warming in advance of this system. As for Sunday, the only thing I will point out beyond LSR is that winds do not look especially strong so dendrites should not be obliterated by wind I would think. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 19:54:09 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 20:39:47 GMT -6
Nam is consistent with a no go friday
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2024 21:43:48 GMT -6
The 01Z NBM has about 1-2" for metro area.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 21:46:45 GMT -6
What a joke
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 9, 2024 21:47:34 GMT -6
What does gfs look like for Friday
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 21:49:58 GMT -6
Gfs, is almost thunderstorms and warm initially
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 21:50:47 GMT -6
Yep gfs surface low tracks west of us. Then just south and gives a quick hit lol
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 9, 2024 21:52:04 GMT -6
With the artic air coming in how is that possible. Nuts
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 21:52:23 GMT -6
GFS caved into the euro camp
Womp womp
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 9, 2024 21:52:55 GMT -6
GFS definitely trended north from all previous runs. Truly shocking.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 21:55:56 GMT -6
Nightmare week from weather hell. Makes me wanna puke.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2024 21:56:38 GMT -6
This is getting old again. But so does every year. Instead of two more weeks... it might be two more years... maybe two more decades?
It's not that I mind a whole lot that we get missed so often. It's that these close calls take up so much energy to forecast with nothing much to show for it.
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