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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 21:57:30 GMT -6
I agree, this is the best pattern we can get and nothing substantial from it. Just crazy.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 21:58:56 GMT -6
Seems alittle concerning the only way we can get a decent snow anymore is with a record breaking arctic airmass
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 21:59:54 GMT -6
This is getting old again. But so does every year. Instead of two more weeks... it might be two more years... maybe two more decades? It's not that I mind a whole lot that we get missed so often. It's that these close calls take up so much energy to forecast with nothing much to show for it. Hopefully you get more sleep tonight. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:00:45 GMT -6
I mean, the gfs drops a lot of snow for Warren and Lincoln counties.
Not a complete shutout for the metro.
Good chance of snow and single digit temperatures on Sunday night.
And then the arctic freezer next week.
Things will be okay.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 9, 2024 22:03:01 GMT -6
I mean, the gfs drops a lot of snow for Warren and Lincoln counties. Not a complete shutout for the metro. Good chance of snow and single digit temperatures on Sunday night. And then the arctic freezer next week. Things will be okay. I’m sure we will miss the snow on that one also ….. year after year of this is getting beyond old |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 22:04:14 GMT -6
I just want 1 plowable snow. I am in the smow business and these decisions to treat or not based on being on a razor thin line and always wondering if I did the right thing is extremely mind numbing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:05:31 GMT -6
00z ggem is awesome for everyone on Sunday.
Absolutely awesome
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 22:07:15 GMT -6
Friday belongs to you WSC. Enjoy, you’ve been hosed too, especially considering your geography.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:08:58 GMT -6
Friday belongs to you WSC. Enjoy, you’ve been hosed too, especially considering your geography. Thanks, I have zero confidence. Rained a bunch today. Had aggregates overcome the ground and got an inch or so and then it all melted. This storm today was awful . Your storm is Sunday. High ratios upwards of 20-1, so I expect a 4-8 inch band down by you. Could be more if the ggem is right. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 22:10:13 GMT -6
In a perfect world those who miss out on Friday will cash in on Sunday
Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 22:12:59 GMT -6
I can’t put my finger on it exactly but this reminds me a lot of a winter around 2007-2008ish. Couple of big storms missing to the north then we did cash in on a blue norther like models are showing for Sunday. Wasn’t much else that year, down this way anyway.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 22:13:10 GMT -6
Just like there was a good chance of decent snow today and Friday several days prior. Sunday is an Arkansas and Southern mo snow. If we're lucky we'll see an inch. Just dumb.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 9, 2024 22:14:38 GMT -6
This sucks. Maybe I’ll check out for a day and come back Thursday for a nice surprise for Friday! Have to switch up this bad mojo
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:15:42 GMT -6
The extreme cold modeled for Monday morning is wild.
Gfs has STL at -11
Ggem has STL at -10
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Post by weatherj on Jan 9, 2024 22:17:08 GMT -6
I just want us all to cash in on one storm at least. A " Marissa Mauler " type storm would be especially nice. What gives these storms the right to keep missing us....lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:17:13 GMT -6
Just like there was a good chance of decent snow today and Friday several days prior. Sunday is an Arkansas and Southern mo snow. If we're lucky we'll see an inch. Just dumb. At least you can say with certainty that it will not go north of you |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 22:17:29 GMT -6
Yeah the system 01-14-24 to 01-15-24 has the potential to be very impactful for the STL metro as a whole. No precip issues. Dry snow that will all stick and blow around on the roads (potentially plowable snow) as the sub zero air temps arrive early Mon morning with windchills way below zero!
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 9, 2024 22:21:59 GMT -6
This model has the highest reliability:
1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days.
2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-70 and I-44 corridor.
3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the I-44 and I-70 corridor actually means.
4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run.
5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years (I don't think anyone every compares to an event before THE BLIZZARD OF '82 (note all caps)).
6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps.
7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.
8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)
9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.
10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)
11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all.
12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets.
13. System passes to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted......
14. New system shows up - See #1.
I must have first posted this in 2010. I always shake my head as the pattern essentially repeats itself year after year, system after system.
Big payoff is when one hits, everyone settles down with an adult beverage, and just enjoys watching it finally SNOW!!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2024 22:22:06 GMT -6
If the GEM for Sunday works out, I'll be ok. One out of three storms this week is ok.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2024 22:26:13 GMT -6
LOL!! The future cast map Glenn just showed for 9 pm Thursday looked like a giant bird about to devour Missouri.
Yes, I'm weird and I needed a chuckle.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2024 22:28:56 GMT -6
If the GEM for Sunday works out, I'll be ok. One out of three storms this week is ok. A .333 batting average in baseball is pretty respectable. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:33:17 GMT -6
00z GEFS is actually really solid for the metro.
Mean is about 5 inches for the Friday storm in STL.
Depending on where the rapid intensification takes place, I could see a 3-6 band hit the metro.
Then, if Sunday can swipe the area with another 3-6 inches, it’s a heck of a few days.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 22:42:12 GMT -6
This is the GEFS probabilities for 4” or more Friday (10:1 ratio used) Idk, this feels optimistic but have to roll with the ensembles over operational runs  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 22:48:40 GMT -6
The UKMET looks like a hard hit up 44 Friday
It’s hard to tell with the limited charts available, but it is further SE than the last run
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 9, 2024 22:49:24 GMT -6
The UKMET looks like a hard hit up 44 Friday It’s hard to tell with the limited charts available, but it is further SE than the last run |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:49:56 GMT -6
The UKMET looks like a hard hit up 44 Friday It’s hard to tell with the limited charts available, but it is further SE than the last run It thinks that is all rain. Looks good south of 70 on Sunday though |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 9, 2024 22:50:10 GMT -6
Sounds way better than the 12z...will take that! Ty
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 22:52:42 GMT -6
The UKMET looks like a hard hit up 44 Friday It’s hard to tell with the limited charts available, but it is further SE than the last run It thinks that is all rain. Looks good south of 70 on Sunday though It might be, but the deformation bisecting the metro is a step in the right direction. The Ukmet snow charts on Pivotal are next to useless. I think Accuwx Pro has some decent UKMET products. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2024 23:09:56 GMT -6
Keeping with the ensembles helped steady the forecast with this last storm...especially as some of the operational models pulled way too far to the north. I did pretty well using them as a guide until the storm came into a more reliable range of the hires short range and CAMS. They NAM3km and HRRR and RAP if I recall did a nice job handling the dynamic cooling and further south snowfall. Eventually, the NAM caught on and pulled way south and in the last few runs was hard to beat.
Leaning on the GEFS for Friday seems to be a reasonable idea right now. It is interesting that the ensemble mean has an fairly significant signature for that narrow, arcing band of backside snow that the operational has been bring up I-44. That same signature is reflected in the prob of 1"+ and prob of 4"+ snows. If we managed a 3-5 snow under those conditions with crashing temps and gusty winds, that would be a mess of any evening rush Friday.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 0:40:51 GMT -6
To me, the operational Euro 850mb for Friday system looks identical to the storm we just had. Ouch. C'mon Ukie.
Sunday system on the Euro looks 'mostly' south....of me, 7 miles west of De Soto. Maybe the EPS throws us a bone.
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