WeatherLes
Weather Weenie
Posts: 18 
Member is Online
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Post by WeatherLes on Jan 15, 2024 6:54:35 GMT -6
-2 In Barnhart Missouri.
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Post by REB on Jan 15, 2024 7:18:18 GMT -6
Current temp is -2.5*. Lowest so far.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2024 7:35:14 GMT -6
-4.4
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Post by bororug on Jan 15, 2024 7:39:43 GMT -6
-2 in Festus
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 15, 2024 7:56:58 GMT -6
It was -7 when I woke up here in Silex. It has come up a degree.
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Post by yypc on Jan 15, 2024 8:30:21 GMT -6
It is 53* F in Greenland, wild
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 9:13:48 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 9:26:04 GMT -6
Just remember this is very misleading because the data is old. The region has seen a lot of rain and snow since the last update. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 15, 2024 9:36:06 GMT -6
Just remember this is very misleading because the data is old. The region has seen a lot of rain and snow since the last update. For example, the area in IA probably has about 2.5”-3” of liquid equivalent locked up in their glacier. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2024 9:50:55 GMT -6
Looks to me in latest short term models most of tonight's little snow is going to be north of 70
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6
12z gfs is interesting on Thursday.
Splits STL, but the northern counties get some Fgen action and the southern counties get some WAA.
12z Icon is a bit icy next Monday as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2024 10:11:21 GMT -6
Interesting? Or more absolute bullsh!t
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 10:16:02 GMT -6
Just remember this is very misleading because the data is old. The region has seen a lot of rain and snow since the last update. For example, the area in IA probably has about 2.5”-3” of liquid equivalent locked up in their glacier. More worried about south of I-70 as far as drought. But unless it's wetter in February and March the drought will have an area to expand from and reinforce it's hold on the region. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 15, 2024 10:18:29 GMT -6
My question is, how is the drought building? We literally have had inches of rain the last few weeks.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:21:11 GMT -6
Interesting? Or more absolute bullsh!t Interesting in that it actually fires up the Fgen band. For instance, GGEM doesn’t even bother with it. Nothing of consequence for about 10 days realistically anyway. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:22:05 GMT -6
For example, the area in IA probably has about 2.5”-3” of liquid equivalent locked up in their glacier. More worried about south of I-70 as far as drought. But unless it's wetter in February and March the drought will have an area to expand from and reinforce it's hold on the region. $20 says by March the talk is about high river levels and flooding. We go through this cycle every year. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 10:23:59 GMT -6
My question is, how is the drought building? We literally have had inches of rain the last few weeks. My best guess is that it from the deficit from last year and of course it does carry over into the next year. Plus rain in winter doesn't seem to have the same effect as rain in the summer especially considering the now frozen ground even down there. Unfortunately the monthly climate models are showing drier then normal QPF through the next several months with maybe May being near normal or a hair above. Summer looks bone dry. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 10:26:16 GMT -6
More worried about south of I-70 as far as drought. But unless it's wetter in February and March the drought will have an area to expand from and reinforce it's hold on the region. $20 says by March the talk is about high river levels and flooding. We go through this cycle every year. The Mississippi river and Missouri river can flood all it wants, but for those away from the flood plain and farmers it's not a good prospect. You can have river flooding and still technically be in a drought as its from all upstream, and away from the flood plain it's not going to help the local water tables. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:30:59 GMT -6
$20 says by March the talk is about high river levels and flooding. We go through this cycle every year. The Mississippi river and Missouri river can flood all it wants, but for those away from the flood plain and farmers it's not a good prospect. You can have river flooding and still technically be in a drought as its from all upstream, and away from the flood plain it's not going to help the local water tables. California is still here and kicking. I think it’ll be okay |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:37:04 GMT -6
Nasty ice storm, especially for the southern metro early next week on the 12z ggem.
12z gfs is warm and basically all rain.
I lean towards maybe a brief period of ZR and then plain rain with minimal impact.
Ggem is always too cold.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2024 10:46:05 GMT -6
Yeah the waa ice scenarios never last very long and cause minor impacts temporarily. More meh.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 15, 2024 11:00:40 GMT -6
Nasty ice storm, especially for the southern metro early next week on the 12z ggem. 12z gfs is warm and basically all rain. I lean towards maybe a brief period of ZR and then plain rain with minimal impact. Ggem is always too cold. WSC, what do you think the prospects are of another split or stretch end of the month into February? I've read the Cohens blog but was not sure if he thought it was happening again..Dave seems to be hitting it hard for mid February just wanting your thoughts..I know you follow that. Do you think it's just a relax of pattern next 10? CPC puts us in highly likely above temps..22-28..I know it's realitive in January..ty if you have any insight. Have to add this Airmass is impressive as I said a few days ago Edmonton was -51..3 days later it's weakened but still -31.. I'm sure the Snow cover in Iowa is helping "cool" us even more..pretty incredible for lack of snow here...if only...probably say that phrase all winter...geez.. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 11:10:36 GMT -6
Nasty ice storm, especially for the southern metro early next week on the 12z ggem. 12z gfs is warm and basically all rain. I lean towards maybe a brief period of ZR and then plain rain with minimal impact. Ggem is always too cold. WSC, what do you think the prospects are of another split or stretch end of the month into February? I've read the Cohens blog but was not sure if he thought it was happening again..Dave seems to be hitting it hard for mid February just wanting your thoughts..I know you follow that. Do you think it's just a relax of pattern next 10? CPC puts us in highly likely above temps..22-28..I know it's realitive in January..ty if you have any insight. Have to add this Airmass is impressive as I said a few days ago Edmonton was -51..3 days later it's weakened but still -31.. I'm sure the Snow cover in Iowa is helping "cool" us even more..pretty incredible for lack of snow here...if only...probably say that phrase all winter...geez.. I feel like the PV stretch events will continue with no SSW or actual splits. Obviously, pattern looks to relax considerably in about a week. I think February will be a Nor’easter month though. I am having flashbacks to the year Boston got like 80 inches in February. Cold will be further east based instead of having those high pressures hanging out in South Dakota. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 15, 2024 11:21:02 GMT -6
Nasty ice storm, especially for the southern metro early next week on the 12z ggem. 12z gfs is warm and basically all rain. I lean towards maybe a brief period of ZR and then plain rain with minimal impact. Ggem is always too cold. WSC, what do you think the prospects are of another split or stretch end of the month into February? I've read the Cohens blog but was not sure if he thought it was happening again..Dave seems to be hitting it hard for mid February just wanting your thoughts..I know you follow that. Do you think it's just a relax of pattern next 10? CPC puts us in highly likely above temps..22-28..I know it's realitive in January..ty if you have any insight. Have to add this Airmass is impressive as I said a few days ago Edmonton was -51..3 days later it's weakened but still -31.. I'm sure the Snow cover in Iowa is helping "cool" us even more..pretty incredible for lack of snow here...if only...probably say that phrase all winter...geez.. At this point I see a couple days normal to above by a few degrees. Unfortunately, our December this year made us all a little gunshy of above normal temperatures. Another year or two of this horrendous winter pattern should get us back into something more normal. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 15, 2024 11:43:54 GMT -6
WSC, what do you think the prospects are of another split or stretch end of the month into February? I've read the Cohens blog but was not sure if he thought it was happening again..Dave seems to be hitting it hard for mid February just wanting your thoughts..I know you follow that. Do you think it's just a relax of pattern next 10? CPC puts us in highly likely above temps..22-28..I know it's realitive in January..ty if you have any insight. Have to add this Airmass is impressive as I said a few days ago Edmonton was -51..3 days later it's weakened but still -31.. I'm sure the Snow cover in Iowa is helping "cool" us even more..pretty incredible for lack of snow here...if only...probably say that phrase all winter...geez.. I feel like the PV stretch events will continue with no SSW or actual splits. Obviously, pattern looks to relax considerably in about a week. I think February will be a Nor’easter month though. I am having flashbacks to the year Boston got like 80 inches in February. Cold will be further east based instead of having those high pressures hanging out in South Dakota. Bummer was hoping we could get a 2021 event in mid February 😕. Yes, 2014..it was just after the SuperBowl..I had too endure countless posts from.friends, etc from the Boston area posting feet..and feet of Snow shots on FB..they got buried..I think it was 3 monster Noreasters...those are pretty intense having lived through many of them back in the 70's and 80's.. Right now I'm living life vicariously through my family out in the foothills of Mt.Hood. Saturday blizzard with 60mph plus winds and 8 inches of snow/sleet..they have had no power for 3 days..but they go throught it alot so several generators..and a pellet stove that cranks the heat..that puppy will drive you out of the family room it's so 🔥 🥵. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2024 11:58:14 GMT -6
How much DAM is going to have to be overcome this afternoon/evening?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2024 12:51:08 GMT -6
Good afternoon...
Just settling in to handle the 4pm and 7pm tonight. My first impression on the radar is that it looks a bit more juicy than modeled and further south. DAM further east could certainly change things some, but if current trends continue, counties on either side of I-70 may pick up a powdery couple of inches this evening. Time to dig in deeper to the data to see if my initial read is correct.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 12:53:45 GMT -6
I feel like the PV stretch events will continue with no SSW or actual splits. Obviously, pattern looks to relax considerably in about a week. I think February will be a Nor’easter month though. I am having flashbacks to the year Boston got like 80 inches in February. Cold will be further east based instead of having those high pressures hanging out in South Dakota. Bummer was hoping we could get a 2021 event in mid February 😕. Yes, 2014..it was just after the SuperBowl..I had too endure countless posts from.friends, etc from the Boston area posting feet..and feet of Snow shots on FB..they got buried..I think it was 3 monster Noreasters...those are pretty intense having lived through many of them back in the 70's and 80's.. Right now I'm living life vicariously through my family out in the foothills of Mt.Hood. Saturday blizzard with 60mph plus winds and 8 inches of snow/sleet..they have had no power for 3 days..but they go throught it alot so several generators..and a pellet stove that cranks the heat..that puppy will drive you out of the family room it's so 🔥 🥵. Dr. Cohen said PV split today and there is a good chance the winds reverse so it would count as the real thing unlike the one a couple weeks ago. So, would imagine that would setup something at the end of the month through the first 3 weeks of February. Still think the daughter vortex will setup to the east, so more of a technicality than a change in impacts I expect. Someone should have a fun February. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 15, 2024 12:55:41 GMT -6
Good afternoon... Just settling in to handle the 4pm and 7pm tonight. My first impression on the radar is that it looks a bit more juicy than modeled and further south. DAM further east could certainly change things some, but if current trends continue, counties on either side of I-70 may pick up a powdery couple of inches this evening. Time to dig in deeper to the data to see if my initial read is correct. That is quite the interesting look on radar. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2024 12:56:31 GMT -6
There are also a fair number of 1/4 and 1/2 mile visibility reports with S. I don't actually see any S+ although quarter mile vis implies S+ with rather weak winds.
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