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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2024 9:52:45 GMT -6
I’m still not sure what to make of Thursday yet
Not exactly a ton of model agreement
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 16, 2024 9:52:53 GMT -6
I remember when it took six inches of snow to cancel school. Times have sure changed. Not better, not worse, just different. I lived in south city and walked to the neighborhood Catholic school. It took a lot to close it. I can remember doing that walk, in the bitter cold with snow piled up. Ducking behind the cars being warmed up to get a little warmed up on the way (totally unsafe I know, but desperate times call for desperate measures). If we were lucky, the teachers would open the school early so we could stand inside before classes started instead of freezing outside. Listening to KMOX at 5:00AM (after the Our Father & Star Spangled Banner) to hear our school’s name was got me first interested in snow. We were in the parade of Saints so it took forever. We listened to WIBV. Really sucked when you just missed your school and had to listen to the next round. Kids today will never understand that struggle with their automated phone calls, text messages, and Facebook posts. I have fond memories of the morning march and birthdays being read on kmox. It was a staple in the truck when my dad took me to school in STL |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 9:54:56 GMT -6
Even Chicago Public Schools called off today, which almost never happens.
The only other time in the 5.5 years I’ve been here was for the PV where it was -18 with a WC of -55
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 10:05:09 GMT -6
12z Icon with a moderate sized ice storm for the metro early next week. Temps around 29-30 with upwards of 0.5 QPF.
Icon usually runs a little cold, so I’m still skeptical.
Regardless, it will warm up quickly after, so that will limit impact if it happens.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 16, 2024 10:15:32 GMT -6
This is some heavy pixie dust falling... much heavier than radar suggests. Flake microphysics is fascinating to me. I've brought this up on here awhile back (probably back to the 2014 week-long call-off for most schools), but a big reason for the change that isn't talked about much publically is how state & federal attendance requirements have altered the situation for schools. MSIP is a school "improvement" program (quotes for effect) that puts a big penalty on districts for even 1 really bad attendance day that can skew yearly numbers. Its better for schools to just close and make it up in late May, or go with an "AMI" day online. Now, as far as the private schools, I can't speak to that. |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 16, 2024 10:16:58 GMT -6
12z Icon with a moderate sized ice storm for the metro early next week. Temps around 29-30 with upwards of 0.5 QPF. Icon usually runs a little cold, so I’m still skeptical. Regardless, it will warm up quickly after, so that will limit impact if it happens. With the extreme cold prior over the weekend, could cause major issues as it shouldn’t have any issues freezing on contact |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 10:20:20 GMT -6
12z Icon with a moderate sized ice storm for the metro early next week. Temps around 29-30 with upwards of 0.5 QPF. Icon usually runs a little cold, so I’m still skeptical. Regardless, it will warm up quickly after, so that will limit impact if it happens. With the extreme cold prior over the weekend, could cause major issues as it shouldn’t have any issues freezing on contact Yeah, 12z GGEM looks like the Icon but it has the biggest cold bias of any model. Timing would be bad being before daybreak on Monday. It deserves a close eye as a potential high impact event even with only moderate QPF totals. I still expect marginal temps and a quick change to normal rain. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2024 10:47:40 GMT -6
Inches of rain lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2024 11:42:42 GMT -6
I remember when it took six inches of snow to cancel school. Times have sure changed. Not better, not worse, just different. We have the cold this time as an added factor. Although in my school days the schools never closed for the cold unless the building lost heat or something similar. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2024 11:48:25 GMT -6
Listening to KMOX at 5:00AM (after the Our Father & Star Spangled Banner) to hear our school’s name was got me first interested in snow. We were in the parade of Saints so it took forever. And the list wasn't in alphabetical order, either. So you had to listen to EVERY school name. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2024 12:28:19 GMT -6
Thurs/Fri still has decent potential, IMO...worth keeping a close eye on.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2024 12:37:50 GMT -6
Thurs/Fri still has decent potential, IMO...worth keeping a close eye on. Thursday night looks the most interesting to me
Looks like some clipper or pacific energy riding the leading wave of the next arctic shot
Could be more snow and wind with quickly dropping temps
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 12:37:59 GMT -6
Thurs/Fri still has decent potential, IMO...worth keeping a close eye on. CAMS should do better with it. Stationary fgen band could get out of control for a 15 mile wide area in the region. Amazing what the latest SREF is doing Thursday/Friday generating a sub 1000 low in Ohio when no other model has that. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2024 12:47:29 GMT -6
Thurs/Fri still has decent potential, IMO...worth keeping a close eye on. Some of the better potential this far out IMO. Not a huge event, but I think could be a sneaky one. I REALLY like the look of the GFS at the end of its run. February could shape up to be a banner month in terms of Winter weather in these parts! |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2024 13:04:26 GMT -6
Whats crazy is in terms of snowfall most of the metro has seen 5 to 8 inches of snow this season so far the last 3 weeks.
I know some doesnt stick around, but just based on face value numbers this is a much better winter already in terms of snowfall compared to last year.
Its these sneaky storms like last night that really add up. Basically if there is snow forecasted a week out forget it, but if it is 12 to 18 hours out it seems to be a lock.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 16, 2024 13:23:40 GMT -6
Listening to KMOX at 5:00AM (after the Our Father & Star Spangled Banner) to hear our school’s name was got me first interested in snow. We were in the parade of Saints so it took forever. And the list wasn't in alphabetical order, either. So you had to listen to EVERY school name. Yes, I remember having to wait until 545 am or even 6 am when your bus left at 705am to hear the magic words..and Yes not alphabetical..and only for Snow..like a foot..that's the NE but even there it's different nowadays 😉. For What it's worth, Columbia, Waterloo and I believe Red Bud and Freeburg all had school..my youngest was not a happy camper..even as a sophomore he was throwing a fit..and mad at me..like I control the weather..lol..he said "your the weather man, how come everyone else is off and we are not"! All I could say was sorry son...I have to get up and go to Redbud for a Dr. Appt at 8..you have to go to school..it's life...lol. |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 16, 2024 13:50:48 GMT -6
Whats crazy is in terms of snowfall most of the metro has seen 5 to 8 inches of snow this season so far the last 3 weeks. I know some doesnt stick around, but just based on face value numbers this is a much better winter already in terms of snowfall compared to last year. Its these sneaky storms like last night that really add up. Basically if there is snow forecasted a week out forget it, but if it is 12 to 18 hours out it seems to be a lock. Not sure on those numbers, based on the NWS total seasonal snowfall map, most of the metro is sitting at between 1 and 6 inches of snow which is less than 1/3 of the typical seasonal average of 15.0". Sitting at 3.5" locally myself so far, but only 1" (from the last 2 minor events) has stuck around for any amount of time. I do enjoy these sneaky systems that surprise us and overperform, but that is the exception rather than the typical outcome. When you factor in that at one point just a couple weeks ago the global models were projecting between 1 and 2 FEET of snow in the STL metro area only to have system after system come in warmer and more north/northwest than initially modeled, I can't help but feel we were robbed of a great January for winter weather in the area. We'll see what Thur/Fri, the system next week (which looks to start as ice if frozen at all before we get several inches of cold rain) and what February holds in store, but IMO so far this winter isn't much better than last year with the exception of having slightly more POTENTIAL to deliver wintery weather, only to have it yanked away.  |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Jan 16, 2024 14:20:10 GMT -6
I lived in south city and walked to the neighborhood Catholic school. It took a lot to close it. I can remember doing that walk, in the bitter cold with snow piled up. Ducking behind the cars being warmed up to get a little warmed up on the way (totally unsafe I know, but desperate times call for desperate measures). If we were lucky, the teachers would open the school early so we could stand inside before classes started instead of freezing outside. Listening to KMOX at 5:00AM (after the Our Father & Star Spangled Banner) to hear our school’s name was got me first interested in snow. We were in the parade of Saints so it took forever. We listened to WIBV. Really sucked when you just missed your school and had to listen to the next round. Kids today will never understand that struggle with their automated phone calls, text messages, and Facebook posts. I have fond memories of the morning march and birthdays being read on kmox. It was a staple in the truck when my dad took me to school in STL Since my mom taught in my district she normally received a phone call before it was on the radio or television. Always loved hearing that phone ring at 5 am. Of course now as a teacher myself, we get the same alerts that the students do so my kids know at the same time that I do. That is of course if I choose to tell them since they don't have phones or social media yet. A year or two ago I got the alert the evening before but let them go to bed thinking they had school the next day. I got some dirty looks the next morning when I told them I knew the night before. |
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 16, 2024 14:55:15 GMT -6
I think we should outlaw the texts, the robocalls, the social media posts and the tickers at the bottom of the TV screen. Make the kids listen to KMOX and god help you if your school/district was in/after the "Saints" or the "Our Lady of..." It builds character.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2024 15:18:55 GMT -6
Written by our good friend Glass:  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2024 16:04:17 GMT -6
Written by our good friend Glass: Models have trended towards cooler mid-level temps...would expect the Fgen band to adjust a bit further S closer to the Metro vs. N/Central IL. I think that has potential to drop 2-3" somewhere in a fairly narrow band. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2024 16:10:41 GMT -6
Written by our good friend Glass: Models have trended towards cooler mid-level temps...would expect the Fgen band to adjust a bit further S closer to the Metro vs. N/Central IL. I think that has potential to drop 2-3" somewhere in a fairly narrow band. 3-5” would be nice across Northern Greene County |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2024 16:16:58 GMT -6
I thought Fred retired.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 16, 2024 16:33:20 GMT -6
I think Chris replied to my comment about his absence from the forum that he is in charge at LSX |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 16, 2024 16:35:24 GMT -6
Interesting fact: At just over 2 weeks into the new year the temp spread has been -7F to 49F at my weather station. Thats a swing of 56 degrees, which if you think the average hottest temp for the year is 102, we have already experienced half of the expected temperatures we experience in a year.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2024 16:43:57 GMT -6
I think Chris replied to my comment about his absence from the forum that he is in charge at LSX That’s Fish. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 17:11:03 GMT -6
That point was glassed over |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2024 17:18:33 GMT -6
womp womp
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2024 18:50:09 GMT -6
Sooner than later, but not yet! I think those guys have pulled away for practical reasons... they have a lot to do in their leadership positions at the NWS. I also think the drama that has at times found its way into the group is just not worth the effort on their end. I stay in touch with them so I can tell you all is well! |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 16, 2024 20:30:37 GMT -6
The NAM gives a swipe, especially north and west, from 6pm to midnight or so Thursday night. About a half inch for the metro. 3K is about the same.
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