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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2024 20:37:13 GMT -6
You can see why it is north when you look at the jet structure. There is some weak jet coupling that is focused northeast of St. Louis. Not impressive by any means... but it's there.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2024 20:48:46 GMT -6
HRRR says what FGEN band after 12am Wednesday! It's over 100ish+ mi from the metro. The other models say the same thing. We get some potential snow after 6pm Thursday (what tedrick65 said)! Looking like 1" at best when it's done. Brtn said we could just use a 0-2" snow forecast for each future storm and he's right lol!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2024 20:53:23 GMT -6
My gut is telling me that we will see a big storm 6+ in either mid/late Feb or March! Lots of choices lol. Palm Sunday Storm 2.0 (March 24, 2013) would be nice. I had 14" IMBY. My gut is also telling me that we won't see a big storm this year too.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2024 21:11:15 GMT -6
My gut is telling me that we will see a big storm 6+ in either mid/late Feb or March! Lots of choices lol. Palm Sunday Storm 2.0 (March 24, 2013) would be nice. I had 14" IMBY. My gut is also telling me that we won't see a big storm this year too. Might want to go see a doctor as it seems your gut is conflicted. Lol. I haven’t looked at any runs later than this morning, but I really like the look of the GFS going into February. The more east based cold should give better chances at over running precip setups. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2024 22:32:40 GMT -6
New record set in St. Louis for longest stretch of sub zero wind chill temperatures at 71 hours! Old record was 70 hours in January of 1962.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2024 22:40:46 GMT -6
New record set in St. Louis for longest stretch of sub zero wind chill temperatures at 71 hours! Old record was 70 hours in January of 1962. I was just thinking today about this stretch we’ve had. Not a whole lot of snow but temps have been impressively cold. It’s been pure winter since we got 3” on Jan 5 |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2024 23:04:18 GMT -6
New record set in St. Louis for longest stretch of sub zero wind chill temperatures at 71 hours! Old record was 70 hours in January of 1962. Amazing, more extreme than forecasted! This reminds us how hard it's to forecast temperatures, windchills in the winter and of course winter precipitation. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2024 5:34:44 GMT -6
My station recorded 36 hours below zero...air temp. That's very impressive around here, especially with minimal snow cover.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2024 6:41:36 GMT -6
Agreed this was a cold snap for the books. Still hoping for a little snow Thursday, but not looking too promising.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 17, 2024 7:36:56 GMT -6
Had 300gal of LP delivered Monday. Ready for spring!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2024 8:29:25 GMT -6
Ah yes, stlfisherman and outtwister, rt?
I remember this board would be debating the the ptype of an upcoming storm. One of them would come in and say, "Im singing in the rain". The first time that happened, there was some discussion on what that meant, but there was no denying really what that meant.
The stl nws wfo has a strong reputation imo, for being a great team. The leadership seems to be outstanding from my perspective, which is no different than the perspective of the general population. In terms of public forecasts, i consider Chris AND the stl wfo the voice of reason AND knowledge.
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 17, 2024 9:05:28 GMT -6
As someone who is over 50 years old, and has a job where I work primarily outside, I've had enough of this Arctic cold snap. IMBY I MAY have accumulated a total of 1 inch of snow during the bitter cold stretch, so not much fun for the kiddos, or eye candy for me either. A few hints of Winter precip is all around here, mostly. A few hours of flakes, here and there. We did have an over performing 3 inch snow a couple weeks ago, but the arctic air hadn't arrived yet to preserve it, so it left faster than it came.
I'm ready for a warm up break. Looks warmer and rainy next week. My pond can use it, it's still quite low.
If we are taking requests, how about February brings temps in the mid 20s, and copious snows. Just my two cents. 🙂
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Post by dschreib on Jan 17, 2024 9:46:12 GMT -6
As someone who is over 50 years old, and has a job where I work primarily outside, I've had enough of this Arctic cold snap. IMBY I MAY have accumulated a total of 1 inch of snow during the bitter cold stretch, so not much fun for the kiddos, or eye candy for me either. A few hints of Winter precip is all around here, mostly. A few hours of flakes, here and there. We did have an over performing 3 inch snow a couple weeks ago, but the arctic air hadn't arrived yet to preserve it, so it left faster than it came. I'm ready for a warm up break. Looks warmer and rainy next week. My pond can use it, it's still quite low. If we are taking requests, how about February brings temps in the mid 20s, and copious snows. Just my two cents. 🙂 I can't look at your user name without thinking of the SNL Jeopardy skit. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2024 9:47:51 GMT -6
As someone who is over 50 years old, and has a job where I work primarily outside, I've had enough of this Arctic cold snap. IMBY I MAY have accumulated a total of 1 inch of snow during the bitter cold stretch, so not much fun for the kiddos, or eye candy for me either. A few hints of Winter precip is all around here, mostly. A few hours of flakes, here and there. We did have an over performing 3 inch snow a couple weeks ago, but the arctic air hadn't arrived yet to preserve it, so it left faster than it came. I'm ready for a warm up break. Looks warmer and rainy next week. My pond can use it, it's still quite low. If we are taking requests, how about February brings temps in the mid 20s, and copious snows. Just my two cents. 🙂 I can't look at your user name without thinking of the SNL Jeopardy skit. Lol. Sean Connery! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 17, 2024 10:06:41 GMT -6
Officially we've had 6" of snow at Lambert this winter. That means we've essentially doubled the snow total of last winter. So when you think about how bleak this winter has been it could have been worse.
Just food for thought.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 10:10:17 GMT -6
My gut is telling me that we will see a big storm 6+ in either mid/late Feb or March! Lots of choices lol. Palm Sunday Storm 2.0 (March 24, 2013) would be nice. I had 14" IMBY. My gut is also telling me that we won't see a big storm this year too. Might want to go see a doctor as it seems your gut is conflicted. Lol. I haven’t looked at any runs later than this morning, but I really like the look of the GFS going into February. The more east based cold should give better chances at over running precip setups. Haha! Oh and Palm Sunday is on March 24 (this year too). It would be a fitting pipe dream. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2024 12:15:53 GMT -6
well, Iowa certainly needs more snow. Good for them. Every time a squirrel farts...
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 17, 2024 12:23:54 GMT -6
I can't look at your user name without thinking of the SNL Jeopardy skit. Lol. Sean Connery! Haha yeah! Great skit. I actually had to have someone help me sign up when we moved to this board years ago because the electronic nannies thought I was using a dirty word! 🤦♂️😂 Updated the profile pic. 😉 |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2024 12:27:24 GMT -6
FV3 shows a little disturbance overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
HRRR starting to pick up on it as well. Could be something to keep an eye on. Potential for a few heavier bands moving W to E. With the timing it could have an impact on morning rush hour.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2024 12:44:20 GMT -6
32 degrees right now feels like spring, and almost balmy. Wow.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2024 13:05:48 GMT -6
We might get 42 to 44 today in the metro, temps really over achieving
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 17, 2024 17:49:11 GMT -6
GFS has an ice storm next week…… it just refuses to snow here
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2024 18:22:56 GMT -6
Ya at this point, i dont care abt snow. I dont want it to ice, but i think itll be one of those situations where fr rn quickly changes over. We saw how temps overperformed today. We do need rain, just not the freezing rain.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2024 18:33:09 GMT -6
lol
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lolek
Weather Weenie
Home & Work: Chesterfield, MO
Posts: 8 
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Post by lolek on Jan 17, 2024 19:13:47 GMT -6
Ah yes, stlfisherman and outtwister, rt? I remember this board would be debating the the ptype of an upcoming storm. One of them would come in and say, "Im singing in the rain". The first time that happened, there was some discussion on what that meant, but there was no denying really what that meant. The stl nws wfo has a strong reputation imo, for being a great team. The leadership seems to be outstanding from my perspective, which is no different than the perspective of the general population. In terms of public forecasts, i consider Chris AND the stl wfo the voice of reason AND knowledge. All of this 100%. I lurk more than post but always appreciate Chris' insight and read the forecast discussions daily. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2024 20:16:55 GMT -6
An ice storm would be a massive insult at this point.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2024 20:29:12 GMT -6
there will not be an ice storm next week. Some ice? maybe. Brief, followed by rain and above freezing
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 17, 2024 20:41:19 GMT -6
there will not be an ice storm next week. Some ice? maybe. Brief, followed by rain and above freezing I remember a strange icy morning in my area back in the mid 90s. We were coming out of an arctic outbreak and some rain moved in overnight. Ice coated EVERYTHING, especially the ground, over a quarter inch thick. Traffic was halted, you couldn't even walk it was so bad. By lunchtime, temps had warmed enough, everything melted. There were no power issues, because most of the ice accumulated on the ground, not on limbs or powerlines. Like I said, EXTREMELY thick ice accretion. Thickest ice I've ever seen and that includes 2006. For a few hours that morning, it was TERRIBLE on the roads. But it was short lived. Just caught us during the morning commute. So whenever I hear of potential setups like that, I always remember that day. I wish I could remember the date. All I can remember is where I was working and what I was driving, and that puts it '95 to '97 ish. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 20:57:00 GMT -6
Some recycled and new thoughts:
***11th Update on SW Influence/FGEN Snow System 01-18-24 to 01-19-24 looks like Maybe a Dusting Now + Another Arctic Blast / Sleet to Freezing Rain to Rain System 01-21-24 to 01-22-24 -> Warmer Unsettled Pattern Change***
Popped to 40* or low 40s today! The SW (Warm Air Advection) was underestimated! Nice to have the sun all day again!
Tomorrow's system looks even less impressive. Light snow could break out after 6pm, but there's not much moisture. As well, dry air is going to eat into our possible snow. Look for a possible dusting up to 0.5" (maybe that's too much). More further north and west! Though, some may not see any snow in the STL metro! The focus is another arctic blast! This won't be nearly as bad as our recent record arctic airmass where we saw 72 hrs of sub zero wind chills at KSTL (Lambert Airport) beating the previous record from 1962. Therefore, this has never happened in recorded history. Some areas had more than 72 hrs of below zero wind chills too!
The warmest part of tomorrow will be at 3pm (37-39*) which is typical in mid January. Temps will be dropping tomorrow evening along with the possible FGEN (temp gradient driven light snow) once again as NW winds start bring cold air advection into our Region! Lows will bottom out in 5-8* range Friday am around/just after sunrise! Windchills as cold as -15* to -20* as peak wind gusts will be around 30-32 mph! Highs will struggle to reach 13-15*. Wind chills below zero all day! It will bottom out at around 0* to 4* Sat at sunrise and highs will be 14* to 18* Sat. Windchills around -10* to -15* early Sat to just below/around/above 0* during the day. At least NW wind gusts will be 20 mph or less Sat. Then down to 4 to 8* by Sun am at sunrise.
Temperatures will warm up Sun into the 20s. Though the question is how much will they warm ahead and during our next system? The location of the cold high pressure is crucial to what precip type we see after 12am Sunday. Climatology would tell us that the models are underestimating the strength of this next arctic airmass. How fast the arctic air retreats and warm air advection comes into our Region after precipitation bubbles up from the WSW? No one or one model knows right now! Either way maybe sleet to freezing rain to rain looks likely! Looks like an freezing rain and rain!
It's a gamble to honestly know when ice accretion stops on surface! Also if precipitation rates are slower at first after 12am Sun and the diamater of the raindrop goes below 5 mm then we could be looking at a period of freezing drizzle before it turns into freezing rain to rain sometime Mon. Ice accumulates efficiently when the diameter of the rain drop is a little smaller and grounds are very cold which they will be late Sun into Mon. I think right now, freezing rain could make roads slick until late morning Mon. This could become sooner or extend later as we lean more about the strength of this next arctic airmass. One thing we all know too well is the streets have so many chemicals on them, but they will all get an atmosphere car cash next week with the rain and a warmer pattern change!
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2024 21:16:34 GMT -6
there will not be an ice storm next week. Some ice? maybe. Brief, followed by rain and above freezing To be clear, I was not calling for an ice storm. I was only saying I’d be really insulted by Mother Nature if there was one. Although I was expecting something wintry as the cold air recedes, it doesn’t appear that will occur…at least for right now. I suppose we could fool ourselves and say we need to wait until the next cold front comes and not give up hope, but I’m kinda over that. Looks like we get to reset next week and then wait another 3 weeks until late February for a chance of something wintry. I suppose it could be worse. There are businesses in the north woods that are closing and laying off workers because their main source of income (winter tourists) is literally non-existent. Restaurants, hotels, snowmobile rentals, fuel stops, ice sculptures, ice fishing, etc. are all suffering immensely. It’s quite possible that the snowmobile trails won’t open in some areas until February now if at all. |
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