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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 17, 2024 22:15:51 GMT -6
I’m not saying we will get an ice storm either but this evenings GfS is showing .27 of freezing rain …. If that were to happen it would be a mess
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2024 22:31:12 GMT -6
I dont buy an ice storm with a southerly flow around here
Thats how we get the infamous 32* "ice storms"
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2024 22:39:20 GMT -6
I dont buy an ice storm with a southerly flow around here Thats how we get the infamous 32* "ice storms" True... but the dew points are low (in the teens) initially and the rain looks light. So I could definitely see a few hours of icy weather as temps wetbulb down to near 30 briefly before rebounding. The overall size of the warm layer means the hydrometers will likely be above freezing which will also warm the air below quickly. So while an ice storm seems unlikely, a period of icy weather changing to rain is possible. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 22:40:06 GMT -6
I dont buy an ice storm with a southerly flow around here Thats how we get the infamous 32* "ice storms" Very true but ground temps are going to be very cold when the precipitation starts after 12am Sun (possibly earlier) so I think we will see at least some freezing rain. If the rain drops are less than 5 mm in diameter...look out! Freezing drizzle. Better ice accretion (as Chris hinted at). The Arctic air retreated fast today with the WAA underestimated today if that's a sign/theme for Sun/Mon or this winter. It's a gamble to know how fast the Arctic air retreats! It's been the opposite many times before. You beat me Chris! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2024 22:40:44 GMT -6
Looking at the morning rush time... the IBM model in house is now generating a tiny band of snow over the metro for about 90 minutes. I'll show it on the 11pm news. I'm not sure I buy it though because all these models that are showing that band have it snowing in western Missouri right now... and there are no reports confirming any snow anywhere near KC right now... just lots of virga.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2024 22:50:10 GMT -6
Ya a few hours of icy weather wouldn't surprise me.
The ground would still be cold which could help with accretion temporarily
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 23:34:46 GMT -6
Looking at the morning rush time... the IBM model in house is now generating a tiny band of snow over the metro for about 90 minutes. I'll show it on the 11pm news. I'm not sure I buy it though because all these models that are showing that band have it snowing in western Missouri right now... and there are no reports confirming any snow anywhere near KC right now... just lots of virga. The FV3 High Res agrees too. I hope it snows for you Chris instead of just virga. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 18, 2024 6:48:35 GMT -6
Ya a few hours of icy weather wouldn't surprise me. The ground would still be cold which could help with accretion temporarily Timing on GFS would be concerning considering its early to mid afternoon Monday. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2024 8:43:25 GMT -6
Looks like we should be able to pick up a heavy dusting to 1” of snow this evening looking at the models this morning.
With the wind and dropping temps tonight could be another low QPF/high(ish) impact event.
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Post by REB on Jan 18, 2024 10:08:30 GMT -6
Thankful for a couple of day respite from the cold to pick up after the doggie and fill all of the bird feeders. Chimney sweep has cleaned the fireplace so the one day without a fire going was just right. I'm ready for whatever comes. I appreciate each of you and all of your insight.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 18, 2024 11:04:19 GMT -6
I could see us bumping 50 in the metro today, its already 39. Usually the warm up ahead of clippers is intense
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 18, 2024 11:12:07 GMT -6
I could see us bumping 50 in the metro today, its already 39. Usually the warm up ahead of clippers is intense I can't see it. |
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Post by REB on Jan 18, 2024 11:15:24 GMT -6
I could see us bumping 50 in the metro today, its already 39. Usually the warm up ahead of clippers is intense Nope |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 18, 2024 11:18:55 GMT -6
Lol.
sincerely,
Snowman99
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 18, 2024 11:21:31 GMT -6
Ok, yall but it hit 43 yesterday with temps at 10 in the morning. Today we have lots of sun, 39 at 11, I have a feeling we are going to be pushing 50. But thats just because of what happened yesterday.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 18, 2024 11:54:15 GMT -6
I just hope we can pull off a gangbuster February for the whole area. I'd love to see many of us add 15-20" on top of our seasonal totals.
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 18, 2024 12:08:12 GMT -6
Ok, yall but it hit 43 yesterday with temps at 10 in the morning. Today we have lots of sun, 39 at 11, I have a feeling we are going to be pushing 50. But thats just because of what happened yesterday. I was actually thinking the warm up today was less dramatic so far than it was yesterday. No official observations behind that, just how it feels outside versus yesterday to me personally. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 18, 2024 12:20:03 GMT -6
There's a light North wind now. My temperature in High Ridge is actually dropped about a degree in the last hour.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2024 12:31:48 GMT -6
North wind now. Temps arent likely to rise as dramatically as yesterday.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 18, 2024 12:33:23 GMT -6
Ok, did not realize that. Sorry guys I am down to 35 now. From a hi of 41 at 1045
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 18, 2024 12:40:59 GMT -6
Ok, yall but it hit 43 yesterday with temps at 10 in the morning. Today we have lots of sun, 39 at 11, I have a feeling we are going to be pushing 50. But thats just because of what happened yesterday. I was actually thinking the warm up today was less dramatic so far than it was yesterday. No official observations behind that, just how it feels outside versus yesterday to me personally. I checked my weather station in Belleville. The Data shows that yesterday at noon we were at 33 degrees with a south wind. Today at noon 37 degrees, but the wind just shifted around to the North. Advection is going to prevent us from climbing like yesterday. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 12:47:47 GMT -6
Probably why you need to check the weather before making forecasts
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 18, 2024 12:51:02 GMT -6
Sorry COZ, not much sleep this week with ice treatments everynight.
Advantages is great income for the company, but not much downtime.
But these salting events make more money than plowing events because much less labor so better return.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 18, 2024 12:52:30 GMT -6
Also looks like tonights snow looks healthy on radar up northwest
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 13:17:19 GMT -6
Also looks like tonights snow looks healthy on radar up northwest Soundings look good for a few hours later this evening. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 18, 2024 14:59:41 GMT -6
Also looks like tonights snow looks healthy on radar up northwest Soundings look good for a few hours later this evening. Any chance Parkway and Rockwood get another snow day tomorrow? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2024 15:04:45 GMT -6
Upstream radar around Omaha looks pretty good
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2024 15:06:02 GMT -6
Upstream radar around Omaha looks pretty good When doesn't it...lol |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 15:09:08 GMT -6
Soundings look good for a few hours later this evening. Any chance Parkway and Rockwood get another snow day tomorrow? I never guess what others may do |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 15:10:12 GMT -6
Upstream radar around Omaha looks pretty good Numerous 1/2 and 1/4 vis obs |
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